The macro factors surrounding Wild Card weekend are these: 1) At least one road team always wins (last year, all four road teams won). 2) The truly shaky quarterbacks don't even wait until the second quarter to shit the bed (Brian Hoyer last year). 3) Something funky always happens in the Saturday night game (the Bengals/Steelers slugfest last year certainly qualifies).
The last time I posted here, I very accurately predicted what would happen in the Super Bowl, although I sucked against the point spread for the entire playoff season. That's not going to happen again this year.
So here we go. As always, the spreads are from Sportsbook.ag.
Record last year: 8-3
Against the spread: 4-7
Saturday
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans, 4:35 p.m. (Spread: Texans favored by 4)
Toward the end of the 2016 season, I got even more excited than usual for this weekend as it became clear that I would have the opportunity to bet against either Brock Osweiler or Tom Savage in an actual playoff tackle football game. Then, Raiders left tackle Donald Penn missed his first block of the year, leading to a shattered ankle for Derek Carr, a freefall from the No. 2 seed to the No. 5 seed for Oakland and something called Connor Cook starting today in Houston. I'm a stats guy, but the stats mean very little in this game now that Carr's out. In fact, the one bet I really wanted to make on this game was the over in total punts, but Vegas is smart enough to not even be offering that bet right now because that number CANNOT high enough.
At first, I thought the way to look at this game was to throw out the quarterbacks. We have a known terrible quantity in grossly overpaid turnover machine Brock Osweiler for Houston, and an unknown-but-probably-terrible quantity in the young Mr. Cook for the Raiders. Houston has one of the best pass rushes in the league, and while Oakland's offensive line is great, it's going to be without Penn. That hurts. The only thing worse than a young quarterback making his first pro start OF ANY KIND in the playoffs is a young quarterback making his first pro start OF ANY KIND in the playoffs against a good pass rush. You would think that's too much to overcome, unless Osweiler is completely awful.
That's the thing, though. I DO think Osweiler is going to be awful and that this game is going to feature some laughably inept offense. I wouldn't be surprised if it turns on a defensive touchdown by Houston to salvage the game. All of that said, the four-point spread in favor of Brock Osweiler is too high, even if YOUR MOM is quarterbacking the other team. I'm picking the Raiders to cover, and I'm hearing weird things that the Raiders actually have confidence in Cook so I'll pick them to win, too. It seems like a three-point game either way. Pick: Raiders +4. Final Score: Oak 20, Hou 17
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks, 8:15 p.m. (Spread: Seahawks favored by 9)
Can you forget everything you know about the Pete Carroll Seahawks, please? This isn't the same team that went to the Super Bowl two of the past three seasons. That's not to say they're bad, but they don't have Earl Thomas at safety right now and that's made a very good defense merely good. While we're here, can you also delete the narrative from your head that the Detroit Lions are in a freefall? They've lost three straight games, yes, but against Dallas, the Giants and Green Bay, three of the best teams in the NFL. Detroit, for the most part, is a team that plays close games. The Lions' defense isn't very good, and in fact it's last in the league in two of my favorite categories; 1) early down efficiency (stopping teams from getting 50% of the yardage needed on first down and 60% of what they need on 2nd down) and 2) stopping teams on 3rd-down-and-2 or less. The problem for the Seahawks' offense is, they're not too good in those categories either.
Seattle had a pretty good season on defense playing one of the easier slates of offenses, and on offense, they've had such a problem protecting Russell Wilson that he's been banged up all year and hasn't been able to run as much. They haven't been able to run the ball in a conventional way, either, but that's sort of okay considering Detroit can't stop the run. I think Seattle's going to come in with a game plan of really wanting to run Thomas Rawls a lot, and pop a few big plays in the passing game once Detroit commits more resources to stopping the run. However, I also think Detroit will make plays in the game, and stay within one or two scores. Count on both teams having trouble in the red zone, making for a bit of a lower scoring game than the 44.5 over/under total suggests. However, covering the point spread is one thing. Do you want to put money on Matthew Stafford and the Lions winning outright against Russell Wilson and Seattle at CenturyLink Field? Yeah, me either. Pick: Lions +9. Final Score: Sea 23, Det 16
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1:05 p.m. (Spread: Steelers favored by 10.5)
One of Miami's big problems on offense is not succeeding on early downs, meaning third downs are a lot longer than they should be. One of Pittsburgh's best characteristics on defense is that IT DOES succeed on those early downs. That might sound like a small thing, but when your quarterback is Matt Moore (or even Ryan Tannehill, who's not that much better than Moore), and you're playing in Pittsburgh, third down and long is not a recipe for success. It's a recipe for screaming fans, false start penalties and turnovers.
The Dolphins beat the Steelers earlier this year, and they beat them pretty convincingly. And there is a recipe for Miami to win this game. It's for Jay Ajayi to bust out a few long runs en route to a 150+ yard day, and that's entirely possible. Miami was 6th best in the league at busting long runs, and Pittsburgh was 21st best at stopping them. You saw that first hand in the earlier matchup between the teams. Miami's also very good at covering No. 1 and No. 2 wideouts, meaning Ben Roethlisberger might need to find targets not named Antonio Brown every now and then.
But this is the first time Roethlisberger, Brown and Le'Veon Bell will ever play a playoff game together. I wouldn't be able to go to sleep at night knowing I bet against that. Pick: Steelers -10.5. Final Score: Pit 34, Mia 21
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers, 4:40 p.m. (Spread: Packers favored by 5)
Here we go again. It's hard for me to be unbiased about the Giants, but I'll try. Their defense is among the best in the league according to the advanced metrics, and it passes the eye test too. The G-Men are fourth against the pass, third against the run, No. 2 on keeping teams off schedule on first- and second- down, No. 3 at stopping explosive runs, No. 1 at defending the red zone, and sixth-best in the league at getting pressure on the quarterback (that last stat is according to Sports Info Solutions). All of that while playing the fifth-toughest set of offenses in the league. Even the first time the Giants played in Green Bay this year, they picked off Aaron Rodgers twice and held him to barely above 50% in completion percentage in a seven-point loss.
But it's Aaron Rodgers. A red-hot Aaron Rodgers. An Aaron Rodgers who said his 4-6 team could run the table and then promptly willed them into doing it, all while throwing 17 touchdowns and zero interceptions. The Giants might frustrate Rodgers, but he's going to make some plays, probably using his tight ends more than usual against a Giants' defense that is great against all types of receivers except tight ends. Plus, the Giants give up some big pass plays. Rodgers probably won't get much help from the running game, as the Giants have been great against the run and Green Bay's Eddie Lacy - who ran reasonably well in the first game - is out.
So this game comes down to the Giants' offense, most notably the struggling Eli Manning. He's been a bit off all year, both by the numbers and the eye test. Part of it is he doesn't seem to have as much time to hold the ball. This has happened before, and Eli's turned it on in January and February, but he's 36 now. Maybe he can't. The thing about this game is, he only sort of has to. He doesn't have to put the Giants on his back, he just needs to play better than he has in the last six weeks. The Green Bay defense doesn't hit the quarterback a lot, isn't great against the pass and has a lot of injuries in its secondary. If Eli can make a few plays and limit his turnovers to one, the game is going to be a toss-up. And you know what happens when Giants' playoff games in Green Bay are toss-ups. Pick: Giants +5. Final Score: NYG 19, GB 17
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