Playoff Picks, Divisional Round, 2016-17

I went against some very strong postseason gambling laws last week and I paid for it. I took a rookie quarterback on the road (making his first career start no less!), went with a Detroit team to cover the spread despite having no confidence they could actually win and acted like an absolute homer for the Giants without factoring in Aaron Rodgers' routine hail mary passes that somehow end up as touchdowns. 

Some other things that I had no control over went against me, too. All four home teams won and covered the spread, which I don't think has happened since gambling became legal. Oh wait, gambling isn't legal.

Hopefully, I'm smarter now. And hopefully, the games are more competitive than they were last week. As always, the spreads are from Sportsbook.ag.

Record last week: 2-2
Against the spread: 1-3

Saturday

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons, 4:35 p.m. (Spread: Falcons favored by 5.5)
When these teams played earlier this season, the Seahawks dominated the first half and Atlanta dominated the second half. The Falcons had a great chance to win the game at the end, but Richard Sherman committed a clutch, game-clinching pass interference penalty against Julio Jones that the refs somehow didn't call.

What may have gone overlooked in that game, though, was the Seahawks hit Falcons' quarterback Matt Ryan 13 times. Looking at these teams, in fact, that's something we should expect to continue. Seattle is sixth-best in the league at hitting the quarterback, and Atlanta allows the QB to get hit more than 16% of the time he drops back, which is in the bottom third in the league. While Ryan has said the hits don't bother him, he needs time to do what he does best, which is create explosive pass plays. Atlanta's No. 1 in the league at big pass plays, and Seattle's defense is the ninth worst at defending such plays. If you want a stat that shows how important safety Earl Thomas was to this defense, here it is: The Seahawks were EIGHTH BEST in the league against long pass plays before Thomas's season ended with a broken leg in week 13 and have fallen ALL THE WAY to 24th.

When the Seahawks have the ball, I expect they'll try to do exactly what they did to the Lions last week, which is run the football with Thomas Rawls against a weak run defense. They also should have another week of decent pass protection, because Atlanta's pass rush doesn't have the firepower to exploit Seattle's weak offensive line. Like Detroit, in fact, the Falcons are weak in many defensive categories, including stopping teams on early downs, stopping the run and preventing touchdowns in the red zone. 

So with those things in mind, I see this game going one of two ways: Either the Falcons do a decent job of protecting Ryan and hit for many big plays and the game is a shootout, or Seattle controls the clock and the ball for 35 minutes, punches in a few touchdowns, and the game stays in the low- to mid-20s. I don't believe in the Matt Ryan playoff failure narrative, I just think the Falcons have never surrounded him with the defense or running game to be a Super Bowl team. This year, Atlanta's offense is one of the best in the history of the league but I still think they're a few players short on defense. It will show this week. Atlanta might win this game, but I think those defensive weaknesses will get exploited at some point, and that's why I'm picking against them. Pick: Seahawks +5.5. Final Score: Sea 24, Atl 23

Houston Texans at New England Patriots, 8:15 p.m. (Spread: Pats favored by 16 - SIXTEEN!!!)
Don't overthink it Joe. It's the Patriots and Tom Brady hosting the Texans and Brock Osweiler. It doesn't matter how high the point spread is, you know what you need to do. JOE! Don't look for a stat or storyline that makes you even THINK about picking the Texans. The Texans have the fifth-best pass defense in the league according to Football Outsiders? JOE. It's BROCK OSWEILER AGAINST BELICHICK AND BRADY. Houston's good at red zone defense? Texans' head coach Bill O'Brien is a Belichick disciple and knows all his tricks? The Pats are the second-worst team in football in terms of how frequently they hit the quarterback? JOE. Shut up. Stop looking at the numbers. STOP IT. I'm glad we had this talk. Pick: Pats -16. Final Score: Pats 34, Hou 3

Sunday

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys, 4:40 p.m.  (Spread: Cowboys favored by 5.5)

Let's get one thing out of the way first. I'm not betting against Aaron Rodgers in this game. Sure, the Packers might lose by seven, but actually putting money on anything more than 3 points the way he's playing right now is too much.

Now that we've got that cleared up, let's try to figure out together who's going to win the game. Dallas's defense has sneakily become somewhat respectable: Middle of the pack against the pass and top 10 against the run, against an average slate of offenses. They don't get beat on big pass plays, for the most part, which is surprising considering they aren't that good at getting hits on the quarterback. That whole not hitting the quarterback thing is a big thing, though. Aaron Rodgers is good as it is at buying more time, so not getting any pressure on him is a pretty risky proposition. Green Bay would be well-advised to use Ty Montgomery and other running backs in the passing game this week, because Dallas is excellent at covering tight ends. I think those outlet receivers could play a major role in the game.

What about Dallas's offense and their adorable rookie tandem of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott? Well, they've been good at football. And they have a good offensive line, as you may've heard (although they've been uneven at times in pass protection and actually finished SECOND best in the league behind the Titans, according to ProFootballFocus). I think the game's going to have a decent chunk of scoring, but I believe the beginning is going to be crucial. Early rust from Prescott, a remnant of the bye week, could result in an early Packers' lead. I don't really love rookie quarterbacks playing from behind in their first playoff game. Especially when the opponent is possibly the greatest quarterback I've ever seen. I believe Dallas peaked earlier this season and the Packers are peaking right now, and we're going to get the outright upset from Green Bay in this game. But it's going to be a classic! Pick: Packers +5.5. Final Score: GB 28, Dal 24

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 p.m. (Spread: Chiefs favored by 1)
The fact that this game's been moved to Sunday night because of weather issues actually favors the Steelers, or so I thought. They're the more explosive offense, so anything that levels the playing field (both literally and athletically) would favor the Chiefs. Or so I thought. These teams are actually very even in terms of both explosive running plays and explosive passing plays. Both are decent at defending the big pass, and not so great at defending the big run.

Why am I so obsessed with explosive plays? Because these teams are so even! The Pittsburgh blowout earlier this year notwithstanding, the Chiefs and the Steelers play big boy football. So what I think separates them will be a few big plays here or there, by Tyreek Hill or Antonio Brown. Just as Atlanta's lack of pass rush will hurt them against Seattle, I think Kansas City's lack of pass rush will hurt them against the Steelers. Unless of course Justin Houston looks healthy, which could make a difference. In general, anything that gives Ben Roethlisberger more time to find a receiver downfield is frightening.

Two other things that might make the difference in this game? Red zone play! Both teams are awesome at stopping red zone touchdowns, but the Chiefs are one of the worst teams in the league at scoring inside the 20.

This one can go either way, but when you have to pick one of them, it's just the smarter thing to do to pick the one with a better history of playoff success and fewer weaknesses. So it's Pittsburgh. Pick: Steelers +1. Final Score: Pit 27, KC 19