Playoff Picks, Wild Card Weekend, 2011
As always, I've blogged a lot these past 11 months. It's a baseball blog, and all I ever do is make these silly predictions on NFL games that I don't even actually bet on. But let me tell you something: I understand the NFL this year. I won the top prize in a season-long, highly competitive, four-pick-per-week pool by going 42-26. Against the spread. So get out your checkbook, text your bookie, and tell him you're ready to clean up this week. As Mike Francesa would say, it's Wild Card Weekend in the league where they play....for pay:
Saints at Seahawks, Saturday at 4:30 p.m. (Saints favoured by 11)
The amazing 7-9 Seahawks waltz into the playoffs as the greatest Cinderella story since. Since nothing. The Seahawks aren’t good. And the Saints are. And the Saints have already beaten them by more than two touchdowns. They're the defending champions for Jehovah's sake. There’s always the chance that I’m overlooking something, and that everyone’s overlooking something, but guess what? We’re not. This game won’t ever be close, I don't care who's starting at running back for New Orleans (I think it might be YOU, reader.) Nothing matters. The Seahawks’ screaming fans won’t be screaming midway through the second quarter. Well. Maybe they’ll be screaming for their mommy.
SAINTS 34, SEAHAWKS 7
Jets at Colts, Saturday at 8:20 p.m. (Colts favoured by 3)
Usually at least one road team wins on Wild Card Weekend, and actually, it’s often two. There’s no way the Colts are going to make for an 0-for-2 home team Saturday, right? Right? You might think it’s impossible for the Jets to beat Peyton Manning, especially considering how poor their pass rush has been and the fact that Rex Ryan doesn't usually outfox the greatest fox. Did you know that Peyton was only sacked 16 times this year (16!)? The only other quarterback sacked as few times as Peyton also has the last name Manning, and also led his team to a 10-6 record this year, and also threw more than 30 touchdowns, but alas. That guy’s home watching this game. And his name isn't Cooper. (hint: It's Elisha.)
Can the Jets beat the Colts? You betcha. And you know why? Not because they’re going to totally rattle Peyton Manning. That’s impossible. But because Mark Sanchez is coming along rather nicely. He got into a shootout with Jay Cutler in Chicago, and dabnabbit he almost pulled it out. The Jets protect him well (he was only hit 52 times this year, plus, the Colts have the second fewest sacks among all the playoff teams, amazing considering the fact that they have two supposedly dominant defensive ends). The Jets are probably going to need to run the ball a bit better than they have, but I think they will. I think they’ll keep Peyton off the field JUST enough, and when he comes onto the field to try and win the game or force overtime, he’ll find that all those injuries to his receivers have finally caught up to him. The Jets will make that last big play, something like they did against the Steelers, and Rex Ryan will fulfill Bill Belichick’s enduring quote from the Pats’ blowout of the Jets earlier this year: “I’m sure we haven’t heard the last from them.”
JETS 23, COLTS 20
Ravens at Chiefs, Sunday at 1 p.m. (Ravens favoured by 3)
I intentionally hadn’t watched the Chiefs at all until Week 17, when a win over the Raiders would’ve gotten them the No. 3 seed and a date with the Jets instead of a game against the Ravens. And you know what? The Chiefs, who should have been motivated enough to play well, did – in the words of Jeff Tweedy – nothing. Nothing. NOTHING. NOTHING. NOTHING. Nothing at all!
The Chiefs aren’t Misunderstood, as Tweedy might sing, they’re just not that good. Jose Maria Flacco and the Ravens have won playoff games on the road before, and they’re going to do it again. Again is 1 p.m. In Kansas City. Missouri.
Here’s the thing about this game: It’s not going to be bloody close you bloody fool. The Chiefs do not protect their quarterback well – 74 QB hits this year is the fourth worst among all the playoff teams – and the Ravens are going to hit him. I know, I know, the Ravens only sacked the QB 27 times this year, which is atrocious. But the Ravens are better, bigger, tougher, stronger, more experienced, and they’re not going to give up a touchdown in this warm-up for Elvis. Elvis being the Eagles vs. the Packers, AKA the only first-round game between two teams with really real Super Bowl hopes.
RAVENS 27, CHIEFS 3.
Packers at Eagles, Sunday at 4:30 p.m. (Eagles favoured by 2.5)
This is going to be a game about quarterbacks, and quarterback hits, and quarterback runs, and possible quarterback injuries. Eagles quarterbacks – and this stat is skewed because of how much Mike Vick runs and therefore gives the pass rushers a longer time to get to him – were hit 94 times this year and sacked 50. That is the most out of any team that qualified for the playoffs. Packers quarterbacks, led by A-Rod(gers) were hit 67 times and sacked 38. That’s like, middle of the road. But still. The Eagles can get after the QB – especially in big games with Trent Cole playing – and they’re going to do it in this game. In between all the quarterback hitting and running, let me tell you what’s going to happen:
The Eagles, who I felt in my heart four or five weeks ago had peaked, are going to give us one more offensive show. A healthier Vick is going to show that he’s benefited from having a week off, and he’s going to make some explosive plays.
The Packers, who weirdly only scored 10 points against a Bears team playing for nothing in Week 17, are going to start slow and fall behind.
BUT. They’re going to come back, and this is going to become a first-round classic. Like I said, this is the only game between two teams that could legitimately make it to the Super Bowl, and they’re going to play like it. At the end, it’s going to be the Eagles making one more play or the Packers making one less. This is the only game that – in my opinion – has absolutely zero chance of being a blowout. If I’m wrong, this is going to be a pretty crappy weekend of football.
EAGLES 30, PACKERS 27.