Super Bowl XLIX Prediction

For the second straight year, the two No. 1 seeds meet in the Super Bowl. So much for wild cards sneaking in, and getting hot at the right time or whatever your cliche du jour is. These are the two best teams in tackle football, they're relatively healthy and the advanced stats point to it being the closest Super Bowl ever. It has a chance to be a classic. Although, as Nate Silver says, it also has a chance to be a dud. And he could be right. Super Bowls can be duds!

Record last week: 1-1

Against the spread: 0-2

Record for the playoffs: 9-1

Against the spread: 7-3

Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots (-1), 6:30 p.m.

I have five questions. The answers will lead you to my prediction. Sort of.

How much should we care about last week? 

I say not too much. Green Bay should've beaten Seattle last week, but the Packers have an overly conservative coach who doesn't understand the risk/reward of going for it on 4th down early in a game, a defensive back who inexplicably slid at midfield on his way to the end zone when a touchdown would've put the game away. Oh, and they decided not to defend deep passes over the top when it was the only thing that could beat them in overtime. But Russell Wilson wasn't right in this game, and that's why Seattle fell behind in the first place. He threw four interceptions, and I can guarantee you that's not going to happen again. Are we absolutely sure he wasn't concussified on this crazy hit by Clay Matthews? How did he not even get checked out? As far as New England goes, they ran all over the Colts and they're not going to be able to do that against Seattle. PLUS, Seattle's running game contains Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson and a good offensive line, a slight upgrade over what the Colts brought to Foxborough the weekend before last. I don't want to throw out last week's games - these teams advanced to the Super Bowl, after all - but I'm not overvaluing them either. New England doesn't have players who try to catch onside kicks in the spokes of their helmets.

What is Bill Belichick going to try and take away in this game?

At this point, we know what Belichick's defensive plan always revolves around: Taking away what you do best, and asking you to beat him doing something else. It worked when he was defensive coordinator of the Giants in Super Bowl XXV, and installed a game plan to basically "allow" Thurman Thomas of Buffalo to run for 100 yards so a multitude of defensive backs could focus on smashing Bills receivers in their little faces after short passes. It didn't work so well 21 years later, when he dared Eli Manning to beat the Pats by throwing to Mario Manningham and Eli happily obliged. In this game, it's pretty clear what the Seahawks do best: They run, run, run, with Marshawn Lynch and sometimes Russell Wilson, and occasionally they pop you with a huge pass to Doug Baldwin or Jermaine Kearse when you don't expect it. I think the Pats are going to do their best to try to take away Lynch, but that's not going to be that easy. The Seahawks are tough up front, and the Pats are a pretty ordinary run defense. The key for Belichick, I think, will be to make sure Wilson doesn't get out of the pocket. He'll probably use defensive end Rob Ninkovich as a spy - a role Ninkovich has played very well over his career - to try and keep Wilson between the tackles. Wilson has never been as good a thrower when he's going through his regular progressions, but he's well above average after a play breaks. Plus, he can run for big chunks of yards at a time. Look for this to be the thing Belichick tries to take away. That's not always easy.

Is Rob Gronkowski going to have a monster game?

I'm not going to bore you with numbers, but Seattle was pretty terrible covering tight ends this year. That is, until week 12. Since then, the Seahawks have been healthier on defense (that is, they got Kam Chancellor and Bobby Wagner back from injury). Opposing quarterbacks have only thrown one touchdown to tight ends since then (fine, that's a number), and even the non-touchdowns have been unimpressive (Grantland's Bill Barnwell, an actual football writer, pointed this out in his great preview of the game.) But the quarterbacks they played in those games included Drew Stanton, a beleaguered Colin Kaepernick (twice), Mark Sanchez, and the historically bad Ryan Lindley. The one brand-name quarterback they played in that stretch was Cam Newton, who got the ball to tight end Greg Olsen four times for 58 yards in their NFC Divisional Playoff game. All this leads me to believe that Gronkowski, the Pats' most explosive offensive player by A LOT, is going to have at least a good game, and PERHAPS the monster game I asked about. If there's one design the Pats have probably tried to create during these two weeks, it's the one where Gronkowski runs into the flat in some sort of a clear out - or breaks up the seam - as Brady fires the ball to him. It's kind of a good strategy. 

Is this going to be just like last year's Super Bowl?

Last year, we all knew Seattle had this great defense but figured that because Peyton Manning was the opposing quarterback, they wouldn't be able to dominate Denver the way they dominated other teams. But as it turned out, they totally were able to do that! And it was like, 43-8 or something. It's easy to think of Brady and Manning as the same sort of thing, but this isn't going to be the same game. Denver's strength last year was getting the ball down the field to Demaryius Thomas, or throwing deep ins to Eric Decker, and even getting their tight end Julius Thomas down the field. New England isn't like that. The Patriots are not successful at throwing the ball deep down the field, so it hardly matters that Seattle's really good at taking that away. New England's strength as a passing offense is doing the same exact things that Seattle tries to force other teams into, which makes for a very interesting match when Brady's on the field with Richard Sherman, Chancellor, et al. The last time these teams played - in 2012 in Seattle - Brady threw 58 times in a last-second loss (the Patriots led most of the game). New England didn't even pretend to try to run. I think the Pats will try to run more this time, but I believe they're comfortable trying to throw the ball underneath all game. Sure, they'll probably try a deep pass or two if it's there, but that really isn't New England's strength. Seattle won't be able to dictate play the way it could against the Broncos.

Is New England capable of blowing out Seattle?

You'll see in a second why I'm asking this question. The reverse of this question is definitely a possibility: I can see a scenario where the Patriots fall behind early, and Seattle does those Seattle things and smothers New England and the game - while not looking as bad as last year's Super Bowl - looks slightly like last year's Super Bowl. A 27-10 sort of thing. But I don't think New England is capable of annihilating the Seahawks. Seattle is too physical, too good on defense and too well-coached for that to happen, I think. In fact, Seattle's 9-point week 2 loss in San Diego earlier this year was the Seahawks ONLY loss by more than one possession since Week 9 OF THE 2011 SEASON, when Tavaris Jackson was the quarterback and Russell Wilson was in college. That's not a joke.

The Pick:

Here's why I asked the blowout question: I think this game is going to be close. Both these teams are playing well - Seattle's offensive performance against the Packers last week was weird and I'm not really counting it - and they match up very evenly. But because I can only see three of four things happening - a close win by either side or a blowout by Seattle - I have to go with the numbers. The Seahawks have a better chance to win than the Patriots. It's not by a lot, and I wouldn't be shocked if the Patriots won. But I'm going with Seattle. It kind of hurts, because as a Giants' fan, I want to be able to say the only coach/QB combo to ever beat Brady and Belichick were Eli and Coughlin, AND THEY DID IT TWICE. But betting on football isn't about what your heart wants.

And look, I just wrote a bazillion words without even mentioning deflated balls!

Seahawks 24, Patriots 17

2014-15 NFL Conference Championship Game Picks

My dream to go 11-0 against the point spread died last weekend thanks to a ridiculously dumb two-point conversion play call by Green Bay. You'll never hear the end of it if that ends up being my only loss.

Record last week: 4-0

Against the spread: 3-1

Record for the playoffs: 8-0

Against the spread: 7-1

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-8), 3:05 p.m.

Seattle doesn't only have the best defense in the league according to both traditional mindless numbers and the advanced ones. This team actually possesses a top-five offense too! The Packers have the top offense in the league according to Football Outsiders, but their defense is just ordinary. And, oh yeah, Aaron Rodgers' calf is again going to hamper his ability to do those awesome Aaron Rodgers things he can do with his legs. Sprinkle in the fact that Seattle might legitimately rush for 300 yards in this game, and it all just becomes too much for the Packers to overcome.  Seahawks 27, Packers 10

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-7), 6:40 p.m.

We all knew last week that the only way Indianapolis could win in Denver would be with an all-time performance by Andrew Luck. But he didn't really have that kind of game. He played fine, but the Colts didn't win because of him. They won thanks to a surprising run game, a nice pass rush and Peyton Manning playing with a hole in his quadricep. This week, I REALLY think it's going to come down to Luck. New England ran like hell over the Colts the first time these teams played this season, and if you go back to last year, Luck didn't play a big-boy game when the Colts came into Foxboro during the Divisional playoffs. I think both those things are going to dramatically change this time, and it's going to be enough for Indianapolis to keep it close and get the upset. Chuck Pagano is a good defensive coach, and he knows that if he tries to take away everything, he'll take away nothing. That means choosing between committing to stopping the run and committing to stopping Rob Gronkowski, I expect Gronk to have a huge game, but Pagano knows the key will be to stop the run and maximize the amount of time Luck is on the field. And I think he'll succeed.

Colts 30, Patriots 27

2014-15 NFL Divisional Playoff Picks

Last weekend was fun! I went 4-0, bringing my postseason picking record to 35-13 since the start of the 2010-11 NFL playoffs. I do it with a mix of macro feelings, micro feelings, and gut feelings. The dream of going 11-0 against the spread for a playoff season is still alive!

Record last week: 4-0

Against the spread: 4-0

Record for the playoffs: 4-0

Against the spread: 4-0

Saturday

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7), 4:35 p.m.

Instead of stupidly relying on playoff games from years past to tell you how tough this game is going to be for the Pats, I’ll just tell you about that time I went to the Meadowlands with my Uncle Brian three weeks ago and saw what a fierce Jets’ pass rush could do to Tom Brady and New England. The Patriots scored 17 points in that game, and 17 points is probably not going to be enough to beat the Ravens. PLUS, the Ravens have that whole Joe Flacco in the playoffs thing going, but as I said last week, The Ravens truly have the best pass rush in the postseason right now, and they’re playing a team that hasn’t been getting great offensive line play. So right away, you can throw away any notion that the Patriots are going to win this game by more than 7 points. The question then becomes, will the Ravens actually win the game? I tend to think they won’t. They played well against Pittsburgh, but they really hadn’t put together a solid win against a good team since very early in the season, and that was also against Pittsburgh, and Pittsburgh wasn’t exactly the most consistent NFL team in 2014. Baltimore can hit Brady, and may disrupt things, but I don’t think it’s going to be enough. The Pats aren’t good at throwing the ball deep, but they will be able to take advantage of the depleted Ravens’ secondary just enough to win the game. Baltimore’s big advantage seems to be their red-zone defense, which is No. 1 in the league according to the advanced stats. I don’t believe in things like red-zone defense, the sample size is too small and the stats just tend to be random. anI think the Pats are going to score touchdowns instead of field goals. One touchdown is worth four more points than one field goal, and that’s going to be the difference here.  Patriots 27, Ravens 23

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-11), 8:15 p.m.

The only thing that remotely makes me think this game could be close is that the Panthers have played the Seahawks incredibly close the past two seasons, losing essentially the same low-teen, single-digit type game each time. Those games were in Carolina. This game isn’t. Seattle’s offense does pretty much all things well, and its defense does too. Carolina’s only strengths are against the pass – but they’re still even with the Seahawks’ offensive passing game – and kickoff coverage. That’s not really going to be enough for me. Seahawks 24, Panthers 9

Sunday

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-6.5), 1:05 p.m.

The moment this game became a reality, I said “ruh roh, Green Bay’s in some trouble.” Dallas is obviously good at running the ball, and Green Bay has a real weakness in stopping the run. I mean, it’s not as bad as my eyes made me believe as a whole, but the yards per carry the Packers give up that are attributable to the defensive line are a VERY HIGH number of yards per carry: The worst in the playoffs, actually, aside from the eliminated Bengals. So Dallas is going to try and take advantage of that, and have some success doing it. Now I don’t exactly think the Cowboys are going to run for 285 yards and hold the ball for 41 minutes, but they’re going to damn well try. On the other side of the ball, Aaron Rodgers’s health is kind of important. If he can move around at even 80% of the usual, the Cowboys are in real trouble. They don’t have great players on defense, but they do have great schemes thanks to Rod Marinelli. If Rodgers can make the play last longer, a scheme isn’t built to withstand that. All of a sudden, it’s Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb and Davante Adams against a potpourri pupu platter of inadequate defensive backs. I think that possibility makes this game a referendum on Rodgers’s health. If he can move – believe me, calf injuries are weird but they also heal surprisingly quick sometimes – the Packers will be just fine. If he can’t, or if God forbid he comes out of the game, the edge goes to the Cowboys. I don’t feel comfortable betting against Rodgers, under pretty much any circumstance. I’m glad the spread is 6.5 and not 7. Packers 34, Cowboys 27

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-9), 4:40 p.m.

What if Peyton Manning really is done? What if his weird, weak throws aren’t really just a slump, but something more? If that’s the case, who better to take the torch from him than the man who replaced him in Indianapolis, Andrew Luck? I'm extremely tempted to be the one person who goes out on a limb and says that's all going to happen. Now, It doesn’t make complete sense, considering the numbers. Indy can’t run the ball, or at least it hasn’t been able to. Denver has a very strong run defense, so maybe that doesn’t matter anyway, but it would be really beneficial to the Colts if they could run it a little. Other factors working against an upset: Manning doesn’t usually get touched, and Indy doesn’t really have an amazing pass rush anyway. Denver has some excellent pass rushers, and Luck gets hit a lot. Plus, It’s Peyton Manning, at home, with all those weapons, and a newfangled running game that could expose a not-excellent Colts’ run defense. So why am I picking the Colts in what most people think is the most obvious (well, second-most obvious) home winner of the weekend? Because it just feels right. (Note: The spread went up to 9 by Sunday morning, so I changed the line to 9 from 7.5 there. Maybe that one point will help if, say, I'm wrong and the Broncos win by 8). Colts 38, Broncos 34

2014-15 NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks

In the past four seasons, I’ve gone 31-13 picking NFL playoff games against the spread (because anyone could pick winners without the spread). So I’m good at it. And you know what they say about improving yourself, right? If you’re good at something, you should just keep doing that and not try anything new, because you’re going to embarrass yourself. In fact, it should be the only thing you ever write on the blog you keep. Okay, I say that. They don’t say anything.

Saturday

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-6.5), 4:35 p.m.

Is this the least anticipated playoff game in NFL history? NOT FOR ME. I never thought I’d get a chance to legally (well, not legally) bet against Ryan Lindley in a road playoff game, but here it is! It’s too bad for Arizona, because even with Drew Stanton they’d probably be favored in this game. The Cardinals do enough things on defense that it’s still POSSIBLE they won’t get blown out in this game. Carolina shouldn’t be able to run the ball, and they’re not exactly the greatest at protecting Cam Newton. Still, the fact that the Cardinals don’t have the running game to take advantage of Carolina’s weak run defense, coupled with the Lindley factor, makes it a pretty easy pick. It’s Carolina.  Panthers 20, Cardinals 10

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3), 8:15 p.m.

The closest thing the NFL has to a great rivalry now that Jim Harbaugh is back in Ann Arbor, I think this is probably the game of the weekend. With Le’Veon Bell out, Pittsburgh isn’t just hurt in the running game. He’s excellent in the passing game too. The book on the Ravens is that their secondary is more banged up than perhaps any other unit on any team in the playoffs. But they can throw the ball down the field, and that’s what Pittsburgh sucks at defending. Baltimore’s also getting Haloti Ngata back, and has the most fierce pass rush out of any team in the playoffs, if you go by adjusted sack rate. I know the Steelers have a very recent win over the Ravens, and that Baltimore's offense has looked gross the past few weeks against some mediocre competition. But I trust they'll play well in this game, and make some big plays. The Steelers will too. Gone are the days of the 13-10 Ravens/Steelers games. This one’s going to be a shootout, and I think it’s going to the Ravens.  Ravens 31, Steelers 28

Sunday

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3), 1 p.m.

Indianapolis abused the Bengals when these teams played earlier in the season, but both squads look very different right now. If it were any team other than the Colts, Cincinnati would be susceptible to the run game. If it were… Oh my God, why am I wasting any more time on this. It’s Andrew Luck against Andy Dalton. That’s good enough for me. Colts 23, Bengals 16

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7), 4:40 p.m.

You may’ve heard Dallas is good at running the football and Detroit is good at not letting you run the football. You may’ve heard that Tony Romo has playoff problems and Matthew Stafford has big-game problems. I don’t know about seven points, it just seems so high. My problem isn’t with Cowboys' offense, they definitely have the quarterback and the running game and the weapons to mitigate some of the excellence we’re sure to see from the Lions. My problem is that Dallas’s defense could be just the thing to nudge Detroit awake from what seems like a yearlong slumber on offense. Give me Calvin Johnson on a few jump balls, Golden Tate on a few big third downs, and you have yourself a close game. Plus, there's a chance Detroit could out-Dallas Dallas by running the ball and keeping it away from the Cowboys, because that suspect Dallas defense will let you do what you want at times. I feel like the road team’s going to win in either Pittsburgh or Dallas, so I’ll give the Cowboys the close victory, but they won’t cover the spread. Cowboys 27, Lions 21