Baseball Season Starts Today And Stuff

"You show me someone who thinks they can predict baseball, Suzyn, and I'll show you a fool." - John Sterling, the "voice of the Yankees." (I just threw up.)

After watching in horror last night as Villanova did its best impression of John Starks in game 7 of the 1994 NBA Finals, I'm so ready for baseball season. And I figured, why not give you my entirely amazingly prescient predictions for the season? But are you sitting down? I'm actually going to do this in a somewhat unconventional way. It's the first time ever that I've decided to do something unconventionally.

That's because it's a silly exercise, this whole predicting baseball thing. Think about it. How many teams are actually capable of making the playoffs this season? WELL, I'M ABOUT TO TELL YOU. Let's put them into three or more categories, I haven't really thought this out yet.

Better Than 65% Chance of Winning Their Division
*New York Mets – They’ve always figured everything out except for the bullpen. Now they have that figured out too.
*Chicago Cubs – It’s inconceivable that they’ll disappoint.
*Los Angeles Dodgers – Manny for a full season helps the Ethiers and Loneys of the world. Plus, Billingsley looks healthy now.
*Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim California United States of America North America Earth – They’re older and fragile, but Oakland doesn’t seem ready yet.

AL East Powerhouses Fighting For Two Spots
*New York Yankees – Seriously, the Sabathia and Burnett signings (at least for 2009) are going to pay off big time.
*Tampa Bay Rays – If you think they’re a fluke, you probably don’t know anything about baseball. They’ll probably be even better.
*Boston Red Sox – They’re still good, and will compete, but I smell another 2006.

Teams Fighting For the NL Wild Card
*Philadelphia Phillies – They’re not going to win the World Series again, I don’t think, but they’ll contend. It all comes down to one skinny left arm.
*Florida Marlins – If those young starters are as good as I think they are, they could be fun for a while.
*St. Louis Cardinals – The numbers don’t add up to them contending, but I’m not in the business of doubting Tony LaRussa’s voodoo.
*Arizona Diamondbacks – Webb and Haren at the top, plus they play in the NL West. The only team in this group with a chance of winning their division.

The Only Team That Could Conceivably Win the AL Central
Chicago White Sox – Okay, so the Indians could break through with a little luck, but in Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen I trust.

The Team That Will Pick off the AL West If The Angels Fail
*Oakland Athletics – If they’re over .500 at the trade deadline and the Angels are within striking distance, the A’s will make a trade and make a playoff appearance. But their starting pitching is underwhelming.

The Sexy Sleeper Team That Needs Everything to Break Right (But It Won't)
*Kansas City Royals – They have some of the characteristics of the “breakout” team, but not enough of them. If *they start off strong though, seriously watch out.

THE REST

Okay, that's actually not that bad. Fourteen teams have a shot at making the playoffs, although I’m going to say that MAYBE you can take the Cleveland Indians as a possibility – everything hinging on whether they can hit enough - and make it 14 ½.. You might think a few other teams have a shot, but they don’t. The Brewers lost their top two pitchers; The RockiesBlue Jays aren’t bad and could contend for a division title, but they play in the AL East; The Braves will improve markedly – last year they were just terribly unlucky in one-run games – but 81 wins isn’t going to gain a playoff spot. need good pitching, and the last time I checked, they play 81 games at Coors Field; The

Now I’ll make 10 random predictions about things, some of them off-the-wall, some of them not so much.

1. Alex Gordon of the Royals will have his first really good season, and at the very least, Kansas City will be interesting for a few months. But I’m serious when I say they aren’t going to be this year’s Devil Rays.

2. David Ortiz’s decline is going to really show this year. And that’s trouble for Boston. They’re the weakest of the Big Three in the AL East, and might win fewer than 87 games.

3. Cliff Lee is really good, and while he won’t be as amazing as he was last year, he still has several great years ahead of him. Some experts say he won’t win another Cy Young award, but I think he’ll contend for at least two more.

4. Randy Johnson is going to have a resurgent season for the Giants. In fact, if Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Johnson are all healthy and good, they could be a .500 team. In past years, that would make them a contender. Not this year.

5.Matt Wieters, the best catching prospect since Johnny Bench Campanella Berra Piazza Munson, will be with the Orioles by May 15, contending for a batting title by July 25, running away with the Rookie of the Year award by August 15, and finish with .300/18/80-type numbers.

6. In no particular order, the four worst teams in baseball will be the Orioles, Pirates, Nationals, Rangers. Just look at their opening-day starting pitchers.

7. The Phillies will miss Pat Burrell, because Raul Ibanez is going to decline very rapidly starting this year. I mean Burrell’s bat, of course. He will also win the Gold Glove at DH for Tampa Bay.

8. Felix Hernandez of the Mariners will contend for – or win – the AL Cy Young Award. The same can be said for Ricky Nolasco of the Marlins in the National League.

9. Four no-hitters will be pitched this year, the most since 1991.

10. The New York Mets will win the World Series.