Hey Liners and Sliders, "What You Once Were Isn't What You Want To Be Anymore"

And with that, almost a year after my last posting, Liners, Sliders and Scoops is back. I like to use this space to make NFL Playoff predictions, and I will do that over the next few days (call it the "Liners, Sliders and Spirals" portion of the blog.). Obviously, predicting that the Giants would end the Patriots' perfect season is still a nice post to look at. Perhaps that's why I've been absent for so long. It was just so nice to have that up there. I can't imagine there ever being a better moment for a sports fan than enjoying that Super Bowl win.

I'm not one for New Year's Resolutions, but changing the way I do this blog - or more accurately, the way I DON'T do this blog - is certainly at the top of my imaginary list.

Since my last post, a lot of stuff has happened. Obviously. The Phillies ended their city's 25-year PROFESSIONAL title drought (but let's not say "title drought," you cannot ever forget 'Nova winning the NCAA basketball title in '85), the Yankees missed the playoffs, the Mets fired their manager, got fired up, but then sort of collapsed again, Manny actually got traded, the Yankees spent more money than the U.S. is spending to bail out Detroit, the Jets sucked with Brett Favre and fired their coach, and that's probably like 0.4% of what's happened.

So, a better-defined Liners, Sliders and Scoops is going to be my gift to you three readers this New Year. Congratulations.

Next post: Wild Card Weekend Playoff Picks.

Super Bowl Prediction

Ever since the Giants clinched their improbable Super Bowl berth two Sundays ago in Green Bay, I’ve gone back and forth through the normal stages of sports emotions: happy to be here, confident in an upset, scared of a Patriots blowout, glad that Eli has arrived, smart enough to realize he’ll still play some bad games, thankful for former and current general managers Ernie Accorsi and Jerry Reese, scared that the Pats are taping Giants practices, and more. And as we’ve gotten closer to Sunday, I’ve actually become less and less confident, less and less sure that the Giants can play with the Patriots, and really just wondering why the Patriots would pick the Super Bowl - the 19^th game in their 19-game dash toward a perfect season - to finally lose.

Then I woke up this morning and realized something: At this point in the season, these two teams - no matter what their records are – are actually pretty evenly matched. The Patriots are more talented, of course, but for the most part, the Giants match up well with them. I said VERY early in the season that the Giants are a “homeless man’s Patriots,” with a good offensive line, a bunch of different, decent running backs, a tall, talented No. 1 wide receiver, a solid but not unbelievable defense, and a good coach from the Bill Parcells coaching tree. Of course, the biggest disparity between the teams was probably at quarterback, but now that the gap has narrowed, I feel confident saying that the Giants are going to beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl tonight.

Since everyone in the world knows I’m a Giants fan, I’m not going to go for any in-depth analysis, I’m just going to tell you five things I see as keys for the Giants if they want to win. I think they’ll need three of these things to come through in order to win the game.

1. On the plays where Tom Brady has tons of time – and this will happen from time to time – the Giants cannot give up huge plays. They need to realize that sometimes, they’re just not going to get to the guy, and they’re going TO NEED to cover well on those plays. Everybody talks about getting pressure on Brady this, and hitting Brady that, but if you’ve ever seen the Pats’ offensive line, you know there are plays where Brady could seriously order a hot dog and a beer, pay for them, eat and drink them, and then matter-of-factly throw a 61-yard spiral down the left sideline to Randy Moss. When he has this sort of time tonight, the Giants have to make it an 8-yard pass to Wes Welker, not a bomb to Moss.
2. The Giants HAVE TO go for big plays from time to time in the passing game. And I’m not talking about short passes that get turned into long gains. Early in the first game between these two teams, Eli hit Plaxico Burress on a bomb down the field, and that kind of told the Patriots that the Giants would do what they wanted on offense, and really opened up the run. Everyone’s talking about how Eli has become a good game manager, etc., but this is still a quarterback and an offense that has the talent to go down the field, and it’s going to need to in order to win this game. And the risk of one interception isn’t as bad as you might think, depending on where on the field the pick is thrown.
3. This might go hand-in-hand with “No. 2,” but the Giants are going to have to score touchdowns and not field goals, obviously. But this is really a key. So maybe those big plays that I talk about will take away the pressure of having to go into red-zone offense, where the Giants can struggle sometimes, especially without Jeremy Shockey. The Chargers last week scored four field goals. If two of those drives were touchdowns, that’s a 21-20 game right there.
4. Reverse the trend of the Patriots scoring on the long field. Somehow, New England scores TOUCHDOWNS on 40% of its drives that start inside its own 20. That’s incredible, and better than some teams’ RED ZONE touchdown percentages. The Giants are not going to win this game if they allow the Patriots to put together long touchdown drives. A tired defense won’t work against the Pats, because then the pass rushers you need to get to Brady will be slow, as will the cornerbacks that have to cover Moss. Plus, the Giants offense – especially the passing game – is sometimes slow to find its rhythm (although it’s gotten better lately), and not being on the field will screw with that rhythm. If the Giants lose the time of possession battle 36:00-24:00 - or whatever it was - like they did in the divisional round to Dallas, they’ll lose this game by more than two touchdowns.
5. The Giants are going to need to be the team in this game that gets that ONE big break. Whether it’s a fumble on a kickoff, a special teams touchdown, a receiver from New England falling down causing an interception, a penalty in a big spot, the Giants are going to need it. I know I said the two teams are pretty even, but the Patriots have that experience factor that really can’t be measured, and they’re also a more talented team because the disparity between Brady and Manning, and the fact that this is Eli’s first Super Bowl and Brady’s fourth.

Like I said, I think those are five keys for the Giants to win the game. I think that if I go over this list again tomorrow morning and find that the Giants came through on at least three of them, I’ll be wearing a “New York Giants Super Bowl Champions” hat. And I believe it’s going to happen. Giants 28, Patriots 24

NFC/AFC Title Game Predictions

Last Week: (2-2) (2-2 vs. spread)
Playoffs: (4-4) (3-5 vs. spread)

San Diego at New England (-14)
While I don't like Philip Rivers, it is a big loss for the Chargers that Billy Volek appears to be starting at quarterback for San Diego. And while LaDainian Tomlinson appears healthy, it also hurts the Chargers that Antonio Gates is listed as doubtful because of his toe injury. Oh yeah, it's also going to be freezing. Oh, and I forgot, they're playing the Patriots, a team that's 17-0. Do you really think this is where the run ends? I don't.
New England 41, San Diego 17

NY Giants at Green Bay (-7.5)
Every now and then, a team comes along that defies what we know about football. It gets hot at the right time, and no matter who that team is playing - yes, even if Brett Favre is the quarterback of that other team - it just doesn't matter. The team has something unexplainable on its side, like that girl you can't figure out why you like. This year, that team happens to be my favorite team, the New York Giants. Eli Manning has something in his eyes that I've never seen before from him, at least not in the pros. I really don't think that anything is right about this whole Green Bay thing for the Giants. It's going to be freezing, night time, the entire world wants Tom Brady vs. Favre, and you know what? It's not going to happen. Last year, everybody wanted a Saints/Colts Super Bowl, but only the Colts were able to advance. This year, everyone wants a Packers/Patriots Super Bowl. I'm sorry America, but the Giants aren't losing. At least not yet. Don't ask me why. Maybe I just think they'll get pressure on Favre, force three interceptions, and put the game away late with a defensive touchdown. I'm not saying there's any sense to this, I'm just saying, watch and learn.
NY Giants 35, Green Bay 21

One Quick Sentence On AFC/NFC Semis

Record Last Week: 2-2 (1-3 vs. Spread)

Seattle at Green Bay (-7.5)

The Seahawks, to me, are the weakest of the eight teams remaining, and even though Green Bay might come out slightly rusty, they should win and cover the spread. GB 23, Sea 10

Jacksonville at New England (-13.5)

I’m sorry, but the team that goes 16-0 doesn’t lose at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the second round of the playoffs, even if Christ is quarterbacking the Jags. NE 38, Jac 21

San Diego at Indianapolis (-9.5)

Philip Rivers is in over his head by so much in this game, that people are going to think his middle name is interception after the loss. Ind 30, SD 10

NY Giants at Dallas (-7.5)

I think that the Giants are going to cover the spread, and they might win, and I’m going to root like hell for them of course, but Tony Romo kills the Giants and until I see them turn that around, I can’t pick against him. Dal 33, NYG 27

Wild Card Playoff Predictions

I did pretty well picking the playoffs last year, even saying at the beginning that the Colts would probably go all the way. This year, I think that I’d be dumb not to say that the Patriots are going all the way. But, but, but! I do believe there’s a CHANCE the Colts could beat them again in the AFC Championship game. Just a chance. But anyway, here we go:

Saturday

Washington at Seattle (-3.5)

Okay, so the Redskins have inexplicably made this late-season playoff run with their best player dead, their quarterback being the guy who replaced ELVIS GRBAC at MICHIGAN, and now we’re asking whether the momentum they’ve gained the past few weeks will matter in the playoffs. I have seen very little of Seattle this year, but one thing I’ve seen is that they can’t run the ball like they used to. With that going against them, and the fact that I see Clinton Portis as one of only six or seven current NFL running backs who actually aren’t interchangeable, “if my line is good than I’m good” type guys, I’m going to go with Clinton for 130 yards and the Redskins for a second-round date with the Cowboys. Washington 20, Seattle 17

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-2.5)

Ooh, it’s getting so sexy to pick the Jaguars. The Jaguars won in Pittsburgh a few weeks back, they can threaten the Patriots, they can do this, they can do that. Pittsburgh may have peaked earlier this year, but they’re not going to lose twice to the Jags, right? Roethlisberger won a Super Bowl for a reason, folks, and he’s going to pull this one out. Pittsburgh 27, Jacksonville 17

NY Giants at Tampa Bay (-3)

The questions: Did the Giants really gain momentum by almost beating the Patriots last week? Is it just a coincidence that Jeff Garcia has beaten the Giants in the playoffs with two different teams? Is Eli Manning going to take the next logical playoff step (play awful and lose two years ago, play pretty well at the end and lose a close one last year, and win one this year)? Is there really a bay in Tampa? Can I really be objective about any game involving the Giants? The answers: Yes, yes, yes, no and no. NY Giants 31, Tampa Bay 17

Tennessee at San Diego (-10)

God I think Phil Rivers is awful. Just awful. I so so so so hope that the Titans smash him in the mouth and pull off the upset. But, they probably won’t. They’ll keep it close, will the Titans, but too much LDT at the end. San Diego 23, Tennessee 17