Super Bowl Prediction

Ever since the Giants clinched their improbable Super Bowl berth two Sundays ago in Green Bay, I’ve gone back and forth through the normal stages of sports emotions: happy to be here, confident in an upset, scared of a Patriots blowout, glad that Eli has arrived, smart enough to realize he’ll still play some bad games, thankful for former and current general managers Ernie Accorsi and Jerry Reese, scared that the Pats are taping Giants practices, and more. And as we’ve gotten closer to Sunday, I’ve actually become less and less confident, less and less sure that the Giants can play with the Patriots, and really just wondering why the Patriots would pick the Super Bowl - the 19^th game in their 19-game dash toward a perfect season - to finally lose.

Then I woke up this morning and realized something: At this point in the season, these two teams - no matter what their records are – are actually pretty evenly matched. The Patriots are more talented, of course, but for the most part, the Giants match up well with them. I said VERY early in the season that the Giants are a “homeless man’s Patriots,” with a good offensive line, a bunch of different, decent running backs, a tall, talented No. 1 wide receiver, a solid but not unbelievable defense, and a good coach from the Bill Parcells coaching tree. Of course, the biggest disparity between the teams was probably at quarterback, but now that the gap has narrowed, I feel confident saying that the Giants are going to beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl tonight.

Since everyone in the world knows I’m a Giants fan, I’m not going to go for any in-depth analysis, I’m just going to tell you five things I see as keys for the Giants if they want to win. I think they’ll need three of these things to come through in order to win the game.

1. On the plays where Tom Brady has tons of time – and this will happen from time to time – the Giants cannot give up huge plays. They need to realize that sometimes, they’re just not going to get to the guy, and they’re going TO NEED to cover well on those plays. Everybody talks about getting pressure on Brady this, and hitting Brady that, but if you’ve ever seen the Pats’ offensive line, you know there are plays where Brady could seriously order a hot dog and a beer, pay for them, eat and drink them, and then matter-of-factly throw a 61-yard spiral down the left sideline to Randy Moss. When he has this sort of time tonight, the Giants have to make it an 8-yard pass to Wes Welker, not a bomb to Moss.
2. The Giants HAVE TO go for big plays from time to time in the passing game. And I’m not talking about short passes that get turned into long gains. Early in the first game between these two teams, Eli hit Plaxico Burress on a bomb down the field, and that kind of told the Patriots that the Giants would do what they wanted on offense, and really opened up the run. Everyone’s talking about how Eli has become a good game manager, etc., but this is still a quarterback and an offense that has the talent to go down the field, and it’s going to need to in order to win this game. And the risk of one interception isn’t as bad as you might think, depending on where on the field the pick is thrown.
3. This might go hand-in-hand with “No. 2,” but the Giants are going to have to score touchdowns and not field goals, obviously. But this is really a key. So maybe those big plays that I talk about will take away the pressure of having to go into red-zone offense, where the Giants can struggle sometimes, especially without Jeremy Shockey. The Chargers last week scored four field goals. If two of those drives were touchdowns, that’s a 21-20 game right there.
4. Reverse the trend of the Patriots scoring on the long field. Somehow, New England scores TOUCHDOWNS on 40% of its drives that start inside its own 20. That’s incredible, and better than some teams’ RED ZONE touchdown percentages. The Giants are not going to win this game if they allow the Patriots to put together long touchdown drives. A tired defense won’t work against the Pats, because then the pass rushers you need to get to Brady will be slow, as will the cornerbacks that have to cover Moss. Plus, the Giants offense – especially the passing game – is sometimes slow to find its rhythm (although it’s gotten better lately), and not being on the field will screw with that rhythm. If the Giants lose the time of possession battle 36:00-24:00 - or whatever it was - like they did in the divisional round to Dallas, they’ll lose this game by more than two touchdowns.
5. The Giants are going to need to be the team in this game that gets that ONE big break. Whether it’s a fumble on a kickoff, a special teams touchdown, a receiver from New England falling down causing an interception, a penalty in a big spot, the Giants are going to need it. I know I said the two teams are pretty even, but the Patriots have that experience factor that really can’t be measured, and they’re also a more talented team because the disparity between Brady and Manning, and the fact that this is Eli’s first Super Bowl and Brady’s fourth.

Like I said, I think those are five keys for the Giants to win the game. I think that if I go over this list again tomorrow morning and find that the Giants came through on at least three of them, I’ll be wearing a “New York Giants Super Bowl Champions” hat. And I believe it’s going to happen. Giants 28, Patriots 24