Last weekend was fun! I went 4-0, bringing my postseason picking record to 35-13 since the start of the 2010-11 NFL playoffs. I do it with a mix of macro feelings, micro feelings, and gut feelings. The dream of going 11-0 against the spread for a playoff season is still alive!
Record last week: 4-0
Against the spread: 4-0
Record for the playoffs: 4-0
Against the spread: 4-0
Saturday
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7), 4:35 p.m.
Instead of stupidly relying on playoff games from years past to tell you how tough this game is going to be for the Pats, I’ll just tell you about that time I went to the Meadowlands with my Uncle Brian three weeks ago and saw what a fierce Jets’ pass rush could do to Tom Brady and New England. The Patriots scored 17 points in that game, and 17 points is probably not going to be enough to beat the Ravens. PLUS, the Ravens have that whole Joe Flacco in the playoffs thing going, but as I said last week, The Ravens truly have the best pass rush in the postseason right now, and they’re playing a team that hasn’t been getting great offensive line play. So right away, you can throw away any notion that the Patriots are going to win this game by more than 7 points. The question then becomes, will the Ravens actually win the game? I tend to think they won’t. They played well against Pittsburgh, but they really hadn’t put together a solid win against a good team since very early in the season, and that was also against Pittsburgh, and Pittsburgh wasn’t exactly the most consistent NFL team in 2014. Baltimore can hit Brady, and may disrupt things, but I don’t think it’s going to be enough. The Pats aren’t good at throwing the ball deep, but they will be able to take advantage of the depleted Ravens’ secondary just enough to win the game. Baltimore’s big advantage seems to be their red-zone defense, which is No. 1 in the league according to the advanced stats. I don’t believe in things like red-zone defense, the sample size is too small and the stats just tend to be random. anI think the Pats are going to score touchdowns instead of field goals. One touchdown is worth four more points than one field goal, and that’s going to be the difference here. Patriots 27, Ravens 23
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-11), 8:15 p.m.
The only thing that remotely makes me think this game could be close is that the Panthers have played the Seahawks incredibly close the past two seasons, losing essentially the same low-teen, single-digit type game each time. Those games were in Carolina. This game isn’t. Seattle’s offense does pretty much all things well, and its defense does too. Carolina’s only strengths are against the pass – but they’re still even with the Seahawks’ offensive passing game – and kickoff coverage. That’s not really going to be enough for me. Seahawks 24, Panthers 9
Sunday
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-6.5), 1:05 p.m.
The moment this game became a reality, I said “ruh roh, Green Bay’s in some trouble.” Dallas is obviously good at running the ball, and Green Bay has a real weakness in stopping the run. I mean, it’s not as bad as my eyes made me believe as a whole, but the yards per carry the Packers give up that are attributable to the defensive line are a VERY HIGH number of yards per carry: The worst in the playoffs, actually, aside from the eliminated Bengals. So Dallas is going to try and take advantage of that, and have some success doing it. Now I don’t exactly think the Cowboys are going to run for 285 yards and hold the ball for 41 minutes, but they’re going to damn well try. On the other side of the ball, Aaron Rodgers’s health is kind of important. If he can move around at even 80% of the usual, the Cowboys are in real trouble. They don’t have great players on defense, but they do have great schemes thanks to Rod Marinelli. If Rodgers can make the play last longer, a scheme isn’t built to withstand that. All of a sudden, it’s Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb and Davante Adams against a potpourri pupu platter of inadequate defensive backs. I think that possibility makes this game a referendum on Rodgers’s health. If he can move – believe me, calf injuries are weird but they also heal surprisingly quick sometimes – the Packers will be just fine. If he can’t, or if God forbid he comes out of the game, the edge goes to the Cowboys. I don’t feel comfortable betting against Rodgers, under pretty much any circumstance. I’m glad the spread is 6.5 and not 7. Packers 34, Cowboys 27
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-9), 4:40 p.m.
What if Peyton Manning really is done? What if his weird, weak throws aren’t really just a slump, but something more? If that’s the case, who better to take the torch from him than the man who replaced him in Indianapolis, Andrew Luck? I'm extremely tempted to be the one person who goes out on a limb and says that's all going to happen. Now, It doesn’t make complete sense, considering the numbers. Indy can’t run the ball, or at least it hasn’t been able to. Denver has a very strong run defense, so maybe that doesn’t matter anyway, but it would be really beneficial to the Colts if they could run it a little. Other factors working against an upset: Manning doesn’t usually get touched, and Indy doesn’t really have an amazing pass rush anyway. Denver has some excellent pass rushers, and Luck gets hit a lot. Plus, It’s Peyton Manning, at home, with all those weapons, and a newfangled running game that could expose a not-excellent Colts’ run defense. So why am I picking the Colts in what most people think is the most obvious (well, second-most obvious) home winner of the weekend? Because it just feels right. (Note: The spread went up to 9 by Sunday morning, so I changed the line to 9 from 7.5 there. Maybe that one point will help if, say, I'm wrong and the Broncos win by 8). Colts 38, Broncos 34
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