Regardless of whether you think this is the best quartet of quarterbacks to ever reach the final four, you know it's at least pretty close. Three of the teams possess passers with at least one Super Bowl ring, and the other has the likely MVP playing his best football right now. That's exciting! And these games should be too.
Record last week: 3-1
Against the spread: 3-1
Record for the playoffs: 5-3
Against the spread: 4-4
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons, 3:05 p.m. (Spread: Falcons favored by 5.5)
When these teams played in the Georgia Dome earlier this year, it was a shootout won by the Falcons, 33-32. A few things have changed since that game, notably the Packers' injury woes have gotten worse and the Falcons have lost their best cornerback. But another thing has changed too, and that is DNA tests have proven conclusively that Aaron Rodgers is not from this planet.
Even with injuries to Davonte Adams and Jordy Nelson sure to limit his top two receivers, Rodgers looks capable of completing passes to YOUR MOM if he needs to right now. Yes, no matter what the Falcons do with their marginally improved defense - and I emphasize marginally - the Packers are going to put up points.
And so are the Falcons. The Packers' defense isn't exactly shutting good offenses down right now, and their secondary is severely hindered by several key injuries. These are two top-five offenses playing against bottom-third defenses in a domed stadium with fast turf, and the scoreboard is going to reflect that.
If I had to pick one defense I trust more, it's Green Bay. The Packers do a few good things well on defense that could matter in a close playoff game, such as holding steady against big running plays.
But you're kidding yourself if you think this game isn't coming down to Aaron Rodgers vs. Matt Ryan, with the score in the high 30s, two minutes left and one of them driving down to bring his team to the Super Bowl. The experts are picking the Falcons more than I expected considering how much the world has fallen in love with the alternative game of "football" Rodgers is playing right now, and going against the experts is good enough for me. Pick: Packers +5.5. Final Score: Packers 36, Falcons 34
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots, 6:40 p.m. (Spread: Pats favored by 6)
On paper, this game could be very similar to the NFC one. Two great quarterbacks, throwing the ball exquisitely against two defenses that, while they had their moments, faced relatively easy slates of offenses and don't always make stops when they need to.
But I don't think that's what's going to happen. I believe both teams are going to try and control the clock, Pittsburgh with Le'Veon Bell and New England with the short passing and cavalcade of running backs they use. These are experienced coaches, with playoff backgrounds, and I could see each settling into the mindset that it's going to be 23-20 and there's no alternative.
So who wins? I think this comes down to the one thing that always matters when you're trying to beat the Patriots, and that is "Can the Steelers hit Tom Brady?" The Pats are good at protecting him, and while the Steelers are just outside the top 10 when it comes to hitting the quarterback, they've really upped the amount of blitzes they bring since the teams played earlier this year (I found that stat in this comprehensive Football Outsiders preview of the game.) I don't suggest the Steelers blitz Brady with every defender they have, because you can't beat him that way. He will slay you. BUT Pittsburgh is No. 4 in the league since week 8 in getting pressure on the quarterback bringing just one extra pass rusher, and they're going to have to do that here and it's going to have to work.
I've seen Brady in those situations, and usually you know early on. He can't find his first two receivers, he looks indecisive, he pump fakes a few times in one motion, and then he is hurried into a throw he only sort of wanted. If this happens a few times on the first few series, we'll know it's up to the Pats to make some adjustments.
But I've seen New England make adjustments. They're like well-coached and stuff. I sense that they will make those fixes and stabilize the game. Throw in that the Pats do all the cool little playoff things that you want to do such as pick up first downs on third-and-short (something the Steelers are bad at stopping), and I'll take my chances with the Pats in a three-point game. The Steelers might cover, but that's not the same as winning in New England with a Super Bowl berth on the line. Pick: Steelers +6. Final Score: Pats 26, Steelers 23
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