Playoff Picks, Wild Card Weekend, 2010

I'm useless when it comes to actually blogging about baseball during the regular season, but one thing I can commit to is making my NFL playoff picks right here for YOU.

It's a mad crazy Wild Card Weekend. None of the games have point spreads above four points, and three of them are rematches of games played last week! How often has that happened?

What makes the game so difficult to predict, this year in particular, is we all go in with our "macro" idea of what might happen in the playoffs. "I can see this team winning it all," or "they have no shot." And every year, there seems to be one game in the Wild Card round that can blow up an entire thesis. Last year, it was the Chargers and the Colts in the first round. The last team to get the ball was going to win, and be in position to at least be threatening in the playoffs. The Chargers won a coin toss in overtime, and so they were the team.

This year, I feel like all the games are kind of like that. And that scares me. I'm afraid to leave my house. Not because I live in Bed-Stuy. It's really nice here, actually. You should totally come visit.

Here are my picks. I got the lines from "America's Line," because that's who the New York Daily News used to use when I first started understanding sports gambling, roughly 23 years ago.


Jets at Bengals, Saturday at 4:30 p.m. (Bengals favoured by 1)

I'm a believer in the "Jets can go all the way" theory. I don't know where it started - oh wait, yeah I do, it started in their pompous little locker room - but it makes sense. They run the ball well, have a great offensive line, and a scary-good defense. It really is an amazing defense. It's not easy to lead the league in both point AND yardage prevention. I'm also NOT a believer in the Bengals. I'm really not. They play much better defense than they used to, but I'm sorry, you need SOME sort of identity on offense other than, "well, we play good defense so, let me get out this little handbook to see what type of offense we're supposed to have, ok, page 242, oh, alright, we're supposed to have a good RUNNING game even though our personnel is much more geared toward passing." You might tell me that only four teams in the playoffs ran for more yards this year, but at what cost? Only six teams in the ENTIRE LEAGUE passed for fewer yards this year. SIX teams. Carson Palmer is their quarterback. Carson PALMER. He's good. Like top 10 in the league good. And they don't let him do crap. (I don't count last week's 37-0 loss to the Jets at all, nobody cares.

At some point in the playoffs, the Jets are going to be behind late or tied or something and they're going to need a big drive from Mark Sanchez (complete with actual downfield passes) and that's how they're going to lose. It will probably be in the second round. But not this week. Definitely not this week. Also, this game is going to have the aesthetic beauty of the New Jersey Turnpike.
Jets 13, Bengals 10.

Eagles at Cowboys, Saturday at 8 p.m. (Cowboys favoured by 4)

All week, I've thought of this as an impossible game to pick. It really is. It's easy to say the Eagles were the hottest team in the NFC until they lost to the Cowboys in Week 17, and now the Cowboys have trumped them. And I never realised how incredible the Cowboys' defense has been. They don't really get beaten badly on the run or the pass (they're better against the run), and they did this really important thing during the season, which is outscore their opponents by a lot. I believe in Tony Romo. I don't think he's a choke artist, I think he's getting better in clutch situations and that will only continue throughout his career. It was puzzling how badly Dallas beat the Eagles last week, puzzling to the point where Andy Reid is probably embarrassed. Say what you want about Reid, but have you ever seen a team of his basically not show up two straight weeks? Plus, they DID show up last week, they just had some bad breaks early on that wound up snowballing like McNabb missing DeSean Jackson on a bomb and one of the other receivers dropping a key third down pass. The Cowboys, after that, destroyed the Eagles. Which is why the spread is four points. And I actually think the Cowboys are slightly better than the Eagles. It's just that I think the Eagles are going to make those plays early in the game that they didn't make last week. And THEY'RE going to be the ones that grab an early lead. And THEY'RE going to be the one that wins this game. PS: The winner of this game might go to the Super Bowl. Pass it on...
Eagles 31, Cowboys 21.


Ravens at Patriots, Sunday at 1 p.m. (Pats favoured by 3.5)

Wow. I really don't care about this game at all. I don't think this whole Wes Welker thing is really a big deal. He only catches like 44 passes A GAME. More concerning to the Patriots, perhaps, is the fact that Tom Brady apparently has an injury on the hand that he throws with. Those aren't good for quarterbacks, since most of them throw with their throwing hand (94% according to Elias Sports Bureau.). None of this really matters, the biggest concern in this game is that it doesn't make any sense that the Ravens would come in and win this game. They obviously have a good defense, but it's better at stopping the run and not AS good against the pass. Brady will find people, the Ravens will make like two mistakes, and this boring game will be a ho-hum win for the home team, the first game of the weekend that the home team actually wins.
Pats 24, Balt 14.


Packers at Cardinals (Pack favoured by 1)

The spread on this game has changed (the Cards were originally favoured, actually), but the Pack's blowout win in a "who cares" game last week plus the uncertain status of Anquan Boldin apparently changed the point spread. I like the Packers, I do. This isn't a game where I should even bother looking at the numbers (actually I just did, the Packers are MUCH better statistically than the Cards). This is one of those things that numbers don't explain. Certain things smell bad. Here is what I wrote about the Cards' wild card game last year (remember, they ended up going to the Super Bowl.)

"Okay, so the Cardinals are not just the worst team in the playoffs statistically, but they’re the worst unstatistically. They’re playing like garbage, they’re soft, they’re everything you don’t want to bet on in an NFL playoff game. It doesn’t matter though. One home team has to win this weekend – it’s impossible for all road teams to win – and so that’s really the only reason I’m going with Arizona."

I then WANTED to pick them in their next game, but I couldn't do it. My point isn't that I'm a genius (you already knew that), it's that when everyone goes against a team, I mean EVERYONE, they're ALWAYS wrong. ALWAYS wrong. Plus, why is the team that snuck into the Super Bowl last year with an insane run through the NFC Playoffs being forgotten about again? Why? Why would we do that? That whole "history repeats itself" argument should NOT be valid the YEAR AFTER a run like that. It would be like banks giving 2007-sized bonuses to their employees ONE YEAR after the worst financial meltdown in decades. Oh, wait...
Cards 31, Packers 27