Super Bowl 54 Prediction

LAST WEEK

Record: 1-1

Against the spread: 1-1

PLAYOFFS

Record: 5-5

Against the spread: 3-6-1

San Francisco 49’ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 6:30 p.m. (Spread: Chiefs favored by 1.5) 

The most important question: Which team will make the crucial mistake?

These are the two best teams. In a fascinating matchup between two of the great offensive minds of our time, Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan will both come in with plans that are good enough to win the game.

Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the world right now, better than Jimmy Garoppolo but not by AS MUCH as people think.

The one thing about Mahomes that makes him great, sorry one of the MANY things that makes him great, is he’s not prone to the big mistake. Garoppolo, on the other hand, is more apt to throw a big interception. 

I expect a close game, played in the low-to-mid 30s, and both teams doing a lot of things well. But I expect that one crucial mistake to be made my San Francisco, and the Chiefs to win.

Pick: Chiefs +1.5, Score: Chiefs 35, 49’ers 31

Playoff Picks, Conference Championship Games, 2019-20

Every reasonable analysis of today's games suggest we're getting a 49'ers/Chiefs Super Bowl. But the NFL isn't reasonable. The spreads are from the Bovada Sportsbook at around 1:30 p.m. (I apologize for the formatting issues, Blogger is not a good product.)

LAST WEEK

Record: 2-2

Against the spread: 1-3

PLAYOFFS

Record: 4-4

Against the spread: 2-5-1

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs, 3:05 p.m. (Spread: Chiefs favored by 7.5) 

The most important question: Should the Chiefs just accept that they won't be able to stop Derrick Henry? 

Weird question, I know. But the answer's yes! In their Wild Card win over the Patriots, the Titans faced a Bill Belichick defense that allowed them to run all game. And Tennessee only scored 14 points before the late pick 6 that clinched the game. The problem for the Pats was that they only scored 13 points.

So why do I think the Chiefs should play regular defense against the Titans, even if it means Henry gets what's become his usual 180 yards? Well, it's because the Chiefs are going to score a lot more than 13 points. Patrick Mahomes has weapons that Tom Brady doesn't, and the physical skills to get the ball to them in space. 

All that said, while I think the Chiefs' best strategy is to let Henry get his and make sure the Titans don't make big plays in the passing game, this Titans team has all the characteristics of that shocking team that gets to the Super Bowl. Data and analytics and passing offenses be damned, the "Nobody Believes in Us" team is still a thing in 2020.

Pick: Titans +7.5, Score: Titans 28, Chiefs 27 

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49’ers, 6:40 p.m. (Spread: Niners favored by 7.5) 

The most important question: Has anything materially changed since these teams played earlier in the season?


When these two teams played in November, Aaron Rodgers threw for only 104 (!!!) yards, albeit partially because he narrowly missed some big throws throughout the game. He also got sacked a lot. When San Francisco had the ball, George Kittle embarrassed the Packers over the middle of the field. It all added up to a 37-8 Niners' win, in the Packers' worst game of the year?

Are we going to get the same game today? Sort of. It's highly unlikely that Rodgers will again miss every single important pass or that the Packers will fumble the ball at their own two-yard line and amass fewer than 200 yards. This game will be a little bit closer.

Materially, though, this is a 49'ers team that's better than the Packers. They're going to get another great effort from Kittle, run the ball well and harass Rodgers again. Barring a throwback, vintage performance from Rodgers - which is definitely possible - the Niners should win somewhat comfortably and advance to the Super Bowl.
Pick: Niners -7.5, Score: 49’ers 27, Packers 17

Playoff Picks, Divisional Round, 2019-20

Goodbye Tom Brady and Drew Brees, hello Ryan Tannehill and Kirk Cousins. Those are words I never expected to type, as my predictions last week indicated. Now we’re on to the Divisional Round, where conventional wisdom says all four home favorites most likely won’t go undefeated against the spread. I expect that to continue. The league has too much parity for four home covers. The spreads are from the Bovada Sportsbook at around 12:30 p.m.

LAST WEEK

Record: 2-2

Against the spread: 1-2-1

SATURDAY

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49’ers, 4:35 p.m. (Spread: Niners favored by 7) 

The most important question: Will Jimmy Garoppolo mess this up? 

Look, the Vikings were impressive last week in ousting the Saints. They came in with a good gameplan, made the big play in overtime and shocked a lot of people. In retrospect, it shouldn’tve been that shocking. The Vikings are a good team, with very few weaknesses. They aren’t the best in the league at many things, but they’re good at most things.

They deserve to be in this game, but they’re also deserved underdogs. The 49’ers are the better team, and their defense - historically great in the first half of the season and decidedly worse but still good in the second - is much healthier than it’s been recently. They should win the game. 

My lone concern is Jimmy G. He throws some fabulously bad interceptions, and the one person he trusts the most, George Kittle, plays the one position that Minnesota defends well. In his first playoff start, Garoppolo is going to make mistakes. And that’s fine. The question is whether it will cost the Niners the game. My gut is that it won’t, but seven points is too high. I think that of the four home favorites this weekend, San Francisco will be the one that comes out most sluggish. The game will be close, but the Niners will pull it out in the end. The ground game with Raheem Mostert will be the key.
Pick: Vikings +7, Score: 49’ers 23, Vikings 17

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens, 8:15 p.m. (Spread: Ravens favored by 10) 

The most important question(s): Will the Ravens look rusty and are the Titans just happy to be here?

My answers here are no, the Ravens won’t be rusty and yes, the Titans will look like they’re happy to be here. The Ravens have that special (insert terrible sports cliche here) while the Titans won their own personal Super Bowl last week when they won in New England. Tannehill mania wasn’t too maniacal last week, when the Titans completed a total of NINE passes. This is where it ends, and I have a feeling it good get ugly.

Pick: Ravens +10, Score: Ravens 30, Titans 10

SUNDAY
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs, 3:05 p.m. (Spread: Chiefs favored by 9.5) 

The most important question: Why is the spread only 9.5? 

Am I missing something? No. The Chiefs are much more complete than they were when these teams played earlier this year, something something something Andy Reid after a bye week.

Pick: Chiefs 37, Texans 14

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers, 6:40 p.m. (Spread: Packers favored by 4) 

The most important question: Are either of these teams actually good? 

Okay, so they’re both good, they’re just not as good as their records. The Seahawks won 11 games but had the point differential of a 9ish win team, while the Packers won 13 (!!) and had the look of a team that should’ve won 10 or 11. 

The funny thing is, they’re both here, and they’re both playing for a shot at playing for a shot at the Super Bowl, and they both have a chance of winning both this week AND next week in San Francisco (or home to Minnesota). So what’s going to happen? 

A shootout, that’s what’s going to happen. A good ol’ fashioned, who has the ball last shootout. The Seahawks can’t run the ball in their current iteration, and while run defense is the Packers’ biggest weakness, I’m betting this will be the game Pete Carroll starts to understand that taking the ball out of Russell Wilson’s hands is about the worst thing he can do as a coach. Why it’s taken him this long to figure that out, I’ll never know. 

So who wins the shootout? I say by the looks of how Aaron Rodgers and Wilson played this year, I’m giving the edge to the road team. Wilson makes gigantic plays at the end, and Seattle gets their third matchup against the Niners. This should be a classic. 
Pick: Seahawks +4, Score: Seattle 34, Packers 31

Playoff Picks, Wild Card Weekend 2019-20

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Another Wild Card weekend, another slate of non-terrible games. That’s two years in a row! I’m going to talk about one key question to answer in each game that may or may not decide it. The spreads are from the Bovada Sportsbook at around 2:30 p.m.

LAST YEAR

Record for the playoffs: 6-5

Against the spread: 4-6-1

SATURDAY

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans, 4:35 p.m. (Spread: Texans favored by 3) 

The most important question: Can the Texans’ passing offense perform at a high level without Will Fuller?

For some weird reason, Deshaun Watson is one of the best quarterbacks in the league when Fuller is on the field, and one of the worst when he’s not. It doesn’t make much sense, and it’s not indicative of Watson’s eliteness. But it absolutely is a real thing and Fuller is out for this game. The Bills’ top cornerback, Tre’Davious White, will do his best to shut down DeAndre Hopkins. If he’s successful, the Bills will be too.

Expect a lot of running from both teams, and a low-scoring game. My favorite bet this weekend is Buffalo’s Devin Singletary accumulating the most rushing yards of any player in the four games. This will be a close game, but I’m going to go with the home team making one big play at the end to win. In fact, I think it’ll be so tight that the Texans will win but not cover the spread.

Pick: Bills +3, Score: Texans 17, Bills 16

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots, 8:15 p.m. (Spread: Pats favored by 5) 

The most important question: Can the Pats mask the problems in their passing game with an effective running attack?

Okay, I’m going to get a bit football dorky here. Warren Sharp, one of the greatest football gambling experts of our time, thinks the Pats’ best chance is going back to using linebacker Elandon Roberts as a fullback more than half the time. The Titans are excellent at stopping running attacks with one running back and one tight end on the field (11 personnel, as it’s called), but not as good going against 21 personnel (two backs, one tight end). The Pats got their running game together in their Week 16 win over Buffalo, and a lot of it had to do with going to Roberts as a lead blocker. They didn’t use that formation as much against Miami in last week’s shocking loss, and a lot of that might’ve been because they didn’t want to show their playoff opponents a lot of game film with Roberts lined up as a fullback. You can’t get much more Belichick than that!

And oh yeah, Ryan Tannehill against Tom Brady.

Pick: Pats -5, Score: Patriots 31, Titans 14

SUNDAY

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints, 1:05 p.m. (Spread: Saints favored by 8) 

The most important question: Will the Vikings throw the ball early?

Like Sunday’s other road team (we’ll get to that in a second), the Vikings can be their own worst enemy. They worry too much about “establishing the run,” an antiquated football strategy that isn’t supported by any meaningful analytics.

Kirk Cousins makes big plays using play action passes, but Minnesota doesn’t understand that you can use play action early in a game. If the other team thinks you’re going to run the ball anyway, you can fool them in the first quarter with play action. It’s a real thing!

If the Vikings don’t do that, they’re going to fall behind 14-0 early in the Superdome and guess what, they’re going to get blown out. No matter what happens, the Vikes won’t stop Drew Brees and Michael Thomas so they’re going to have to score a lot of points to win this game. The definition of insanity is expecting a team that never changes its stripes to suddenly do it. The Vikings offense picked up only SEVEN first downs against the Packers in their Monday Night Game in week 16, and I expect a similarly impotent performance in this one. If they do get the passing game going early, though, I do think this game can be closer than people expect. I’m just not going to bet on it.

Pick: Saints -8, Score: Saints 33, Vikings 17 

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:40 p.m. (Spread: Seahawks favored by 2.5) 

The most important question: Will the Seahawks keep the ball out of their best player’s hands long enough to lose the game?

Similar to the Vikings, the Seahawks run the ball on first down too much. It puts their offense in a precarious position, 2^nd and long and 3^rd and long as well as early deficits. When the game script flips to a place where the Seahawks have to start throwing, Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett and company usually get going. That’s why they won 12 games despite playing close games almost exclusively. Now that their top three running backs are all injured, you would think Seattle offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer would understand that he should attack Philadelphia’s biggest weakness (pass defense) with his own team’s biggest strength (Wilson).

I don’t have too much faith in Schottenheimer, but something tells me Seattle will adjust a little earlier than usual into a pass-first offense, and Seattle will prevail.

Both of these teams are super injured, and Carson Wentz’s heroics in getting the Eagles into the playoffs can’t be overlooked. But with all his top weapons either definitely out or playing at less than 100%, it’s just too much to overcome. The game will be close, but I’m betting on Wilson to pull out a late drive and send Seattle into a rematch with San Francisco.

Pick: Seahawks -2.5, Score: Seahawks 20, Eagles 17

Super Bowl Pick

34-20 Pats. I haven’t had time to write about what I think will happen but Tom Brady isn’t losing this one...

Playoff Picks, Conference Title Games, 2018-19

I've got fully developed thoughts on today's games, but I don't have a fully developed amount of time.  So I'll just focus on my one key for the game.

Record Last Week: 3-1
Against the Spread: 1-3

Record for the Playoffs: 5-3
Against the Spread: 3-4-1

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints, 3:05 p.m. (Spread: Saints favored by 3)

What the game comes down to: Whether the slowdown by Drew Brees and the Saints' offense is a five-week fluke, or indicative of a larger problem.

What I think: Five-week fluke. I think the Saints' offensive rhythm, which has been missing for weeks but sort of started coming back during their 20-14 comeback win over the Eagles last week, will be all the way back for this game. I also think Mark Ingram, the running back people tend to forget about in this Saints' offense, will run for over 100 yards and two touchdowns.

The pick: SAINTS -3. Score: Saints 30, Rams 20

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs, 6:40 p.m. (Spread: Chiefs favored by 3)

What the game comes down to: Whether the Chiefs' defensive performance against the Colts last week was a one-week blip against an offense that had a bad day, or a sign that Kansas City can at least get a few stops and/or force a turnover or two.

What I think: This game comes down to offense, I get that. There was a total of ONE punt between these two teams (by the Chiefs) when the Pats won by 43-40 earlier this season. But after watching the Pats' offense look like a machine last week against a much better Chargers' defense, I think holding the Pats to, say, less than 34 points becomes the key to this game for the Chiefs. Their defense has been much better at home this year than on the road, and I think the home field makes the difference here. The Chiefs get a few stops, and they get to the Super Bowl.,

The pick: CHIEFS -3. Score: Chiefs 30, Pats 26

Playoff Picks, Divisional Round 2018-19

It’s the greatest football weekend of the year!

LAST WEEK

Record: 2-2

Against the spread: 2-1-1

SATURDAY

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs, 4:35 p.m. (Spread: Chiefs favored by 5) 

It’s currently snowing in Kansas City, but the current forecast says that should stop right around kickoff. I’m going to treat this one like weather isn’t a factor.

The Colts are by far the more complete team in this game, which isn’t usually the case for a road team in the Divisional round. The problem for Indianapolis is that even if they do many things better than Kansas City, there’s nothing they’re as great at doing as the Chiefs are at scoring points. 

The problem for the Chiefs, of course, is their defense can’t stop anybody. That list will include Andrew Luck after this game, but does that mean the Chiefs are doomed? Of course not.

Patrick Mahomes put up one of the best seasons of any quarterback in NFL history, and as long as he can keep playing the way he has all year, the Chiefs are going to score points. In its analysis of this game, Football Outsiders pointed out that many quarterbacks who’ve had unbelievable seasons have seen their Luck (pun moderately intended) run out during the playoffs. 

Couple that with Andy Reid and the Chiefs’ no good, very bad history against the Colts in the postseason, and my unusually high level of empathy really feels for Chiefs fans right now. I’m going to pick them to pull the game out, with the Chiefs taking advantage of the Colts’ inability to cover tight end Travis Kelce. Call it 34-30, with the Colts covering the spread. But if Luck gets that ball at the end with a chance to win the game, I’ll be watching with a hand over my eye.

Pick: Colts +5, Score: Chiefs 33, Colts 30

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams, 8:15 p.m. (Spread: Rams favored by 7) 

If you’re into betting on favorites, this game is one of several this weekend with a troubling trend: The advanced stats show the Cowboys (along with some of the other underdogs) as trending upward in the second half of the season, while the Rams have gone the other way.

The Rams are the much more talented team, and I think the rest will be an advantage for them. Two things trouble me from a Rams’ standpoint: On defense they have trouble covering No. 1 receivers, which could mean a big game from Amari Cooper. When they have the ball, Jared Goff hasn’t looked right. 

I’m going to wager that Rams’ coach Sean McVay and his staff have a plan to rectify my concerns, and erase the bad memories of that home playoff loss to the Falcons last year.

Pick: Rams -7, Score: Rams 34, Cowboys 24

SUNDAY

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots, 1:05 p.m. (Spread: Pats favored by 4) 

I took a leap during the Super Bowl last year and decided not to believe in the Patriots’ “mystique” anymore. It worked out well for me, and I’m going to keep doing the same thing. I’m looking at this Patriots team, one that underperformed against expectations during the regular season, as a normal squad. They have a great coach, an aging quarterback who can’t beat the blitz  and a dearth of deep threats.

They also have an advantage running the ball and throwing to running back James White, and will probably rely on that against the Chargers. I like the Chargers’ chances at moving the ball on New England, which has a pretty average defense. One thing to watch out for, though: The Pats blitz a lot, and those are the types of teams that give Philip Rivers trouble. I think this game is going to be super close, and I think the Pats are the inferior team. Their mystique died after that comeback win in last year’s AFC Championship game against the Jags, and it ain’t ever coming back.

Pick: Chargers +4. Score: Chargers 27, Pats 24 

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints, 4:40 p.m. (Spread: Saints favored by 8) 

There really seems to be something about Nick Foles, AKA Large Richard Nicholas (h/t to Football Outsiders for that outstanding nickname from the site’s game preview). Is that enough for the Eagles to stay close in this game?

NO. There’s a reason the Saints blew out the Eagles earlier this year. Plus, Foles hasn’t been good on long bombs this year, and that’s the Saints’ biggest defensive weakness. I expect the Eagles to dink and dunk with throws to Darren Sproles and Wendell Smallwood against a Saints’ defense that doesn’t defend running back catches very well, but to come up small when they try to go deep.

The difference in the game, though, will be the Saints’ offense. Expect an early lead and some of that rhythm we saw from them earlier in the season that has gone missing recently. The Saints’ downward trajectory makes me a little worried about having so much conviction here, but it’s Drew Brees. His presence makes me worry less.

Pick: Saints -8. Score: Saints 37, Eagles 17