Playoff Picks, Wild Card Weekend 2019-20

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Another Wild Card weekend, another slate of non-terrible games. That’s two years in a row! I’m going to talk about one key question to answer in each game that may or may not decide it. The spreads are from the Bovada Sportsbook at around 2:30 p.m.

LAST YEAR

Record for the playoffs: 6-5

Against the spread: 4-6-1

SATURDAY

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans, 4:35 p.m. (Spread: Texans favored by 3) 

The most important question: Can the Texans’ passing offense perform at a high level without Will Fuller?

For some weird reason, Deshaun Watson is one of the best quarterbacks in the league when Fuller is on the field, and one of the worst when he’s not. It doesn’t make much sense, and it’s not indicative of Watson’s eliteness. But it absolutely is a real thing and Fuller is out for this game. The Bills’ top cornerback, Tre’Davious White, will do his best to shut down DeAndre Hopkins. If he’s successful, the Bills will be too.

Expect a lot of running from both teams, and a low-scoring game. My favorite bet this weekend is Buffalo’s Devin Singletary accumulating the most rushing yards of any player in the four games. This will be a close game, but I’m going to go with the home team making one big play at the end to win. In fact, I think it’ll be so tight that the Texans will win but not cover the spread.

Pick: Bills +3, Score: Texans 17, Bills 16

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots, 8:15 p.m. (Spread: Pats favored by 5) 

The most important question: Can the Pats mask the problems in their passing game with an effective running attack?

Okay, I’m going to get a bit football dorky here. Warren Sharp, one of the greatest football gambling experts of our time, thinks the Pats’ best chance is going back to using linebacker Elandon Roberts as a fullback more than half the time. The Titans are excellent at stopping running attacks with one running back and one tight end on the field (11 personnel, as it’s called), but not as good going against 21 personnel (two backs, one tight end). The Pats got their running game together in their Week 16 win over Buffalo, and a lot of it had to do with going to Roberts as a lead blocker. They didn’t use that formation as much against Miami in last week’s shocking loss, and a lot of that might’ve been because they didn’t want to show their playoff opponents a lot of game film with Roberts lined up as a fullback. You can’t get much more Belichick than that!

And oh yeah, Ryan Tannehill against Tom Brady.

Pick: Pats -5, Score: Patriots 31, Titans 14

SUNDAY

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints, 1:05 p.m. (Spread: Saints favored by 8) 

The most important question: Will the Vikings throw the ball early?

Like Sunday’s other road team (we’ll get to that in a second), the Vikings can be their own worst enemy. They worry too much about “establishing the run,” an antiquated football strategy that isn’t supported by any meaningful analytics.

Kirk Cousins makes big plays using play action passes, but Minnesota doesn’t understand that you can use play action early in a game. If the other team thinks you’re going to run the ball anyway, you can fool them in the first quarter with play action. It’s a real thing!

If the Vikings don’t do that, they’re going to fall behind 14-0 early in the Superdome and guess what, they’re going to get blown out. No matter what happens, the Vikes won’t stop Drew Brees and Michael Thomas so they’re going to have to score a lot of points to win this game. The definition of insanity is expecting a team that never changes its stripes to suddenly do it. The Vikings offense picked up only SEVEN first downs against the Packers in their Monday Night Game in week 16, and I expect a similarly impotent performance in this one. If they do get the passing game going early, though, I do think this game can be closer than people expect. I’m just not going to bet on it.

Pick: Saints -8, Score: Saints 33, Vikings 17 

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:40 p.m. (Spread: Seahawks favored by 2.5) 

The most important question: Will the Seahawks keep the ball out of their best player’s hands long enough to lose the game?

Similar to the Vikings, the Seahawks run the ball on first down too much. It puts their offense in a precarious position, 2^nd and long and 3^rd and long as well as early deficits. When the game script flips to a place where the Seahawks have to start throwing, Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett and company usually get going. That’s why they won 12 games despite playing close games almost exclusively. Now that their top three running backs are all injured, you would think Seattle offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer would understand that he should attack Philadelphia’s biggest weakness (pass defense) with his own team’s biggest strength (Wilson).

I don’t have too much faith in Schottenheimer, but something tells me Seattle will adjust a little earlier than usual into a pass-first offense, and Seattle will prevail.

Both of these teams are super injured, and Carson Wentz’s heroics in getting the Eagles into the playoffs can’t be overlooked. But with all his top weapons either definitely out or playing at less than 100%, it’s just too much to overcome. The game will be close, but I’m betting on Wilson to pull out a late drive and send Seattle into a rematch with San Francisco.

Pick: Seahawks -2.5, Score: Seahawks 20, Eagles 17