2013 NFL Conference Championship Game Picks

The four teams we thought were the best in the NFL are actually the four teams left? Holy 1992. I don't see any reason why these games won't be great. Think of it this way: If the so-so teams that snuck into the playoffs and got hot in recent years could win close games against teams that were theoretically better, why won't the games between the ACTUAL best teams be awesome too? I thought so. Plus, I was undefeated last week so you should listen to me. Although, I picked the Broncos and Seahawks as my Super Bowl teams before the year and, as you'll see soon, I may not agree with that anymore.

Record for playoffs (6-2)
*Record against the spread (6-2)

*the spread is all that matters 

Patriots at Broncos (-5), 3 p.m.

I'm still not sure why this game started as a 7-point spread. Since the start of the 2011 season, the Pats have played 36 competitive games and lost exactly ONE by more than one score. It was actually last year's AFC Championship game against the Ravens. We know the Ravens own the Pats, so I'm not really going to put any stock into that little game, as big as it was for Joe Flacco's eventual wealth. One thing I DO know is that people love to talk about Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady. It's such a fun argument. One has three Super Bowl rings, the other has one. Whatever, both these quarterbacks are good, and I tend to not fall too much in love with the "Brady is more clutch in the playoffs" or "Manning is better because he's sustained it over the regular season" arguments. They're both legends who make people around them better. That's it. As far as the teams this year, both are great at protecting the passer (thanks in part to the blockers, and in part to the passer), while New England is a bit better - especially with Von Miller missing for Denver - at getting to the passer. Amazingly, this game might come down to the running game. Both are actually pretty effective at running according to footballoutsiders, but Denver is much better at STOPPING the run (though they haven't yet had to face the full effect of a Blount-force object). The first time these two teams played, everyone thinks the Broncos ran all over New England because they found something, blah blah blah. Um, sure, they ran for 280 yards, but Peyton only threw for 150! That's what Belichick wanted! And the Pats won. Here's the thing about this game: I think it's a 3-point game, just like the first one won by the Pats. I think New England does a lot of the same things - and yeah, that means Knowshon Moreno rushing for more yards. And you know what, it might sound cliche, but there's something about how the Broncos still needed two great Manning plays on 3rd downs to put away the Chargers last week. There's something that tells me the Pats aren't the Chargers, and if you leave them an opportunity, Tom Brady is somehow going to be able to take advantage of it. So while I wouldn't be surprised if the Broncos won, I would be very surprised if they covered the spread, and I'm picking the Patriots. You know why? I don't know why. I just know it feels right. Patriots 38, Colts 35

49'ers at Seahawks (-3.5), 6:30 p.m.

To me, this is the classic case of the team that's peaking against the team that's consistently been considered the best in the league all year. How did that work out for the 18-0 Patriots against the Giants? Or the 15-1 Packers against the Giants? It's obviously not just the Giants. There's something about the NFL these days, and the team that hasn't lost in forever going against the team that once seemed invincible but has stop being so overtly impressive. I'm obviously petrified that I'm overvaluing the Cardinals' win in Seattle, which made winning there seem possible for once. But I'm not at all petrified about picking the 49'ers, a team that has picked up its pass rush and will be playing a team that protects its passer very poorly. That's a huge thing in this game. But do you want to know what's huger? Seattle's run game! Seattle and Marshawn Lynch and a sprinkling of Russell Wilson are 7th in the league at running the ball according to the aforementioned footballoutsiders and the Niners are middle of the pack. But San Francisco has played the run much better recently, and I think that's going to make the difference. You know Seattle won't give up much in the passing game, but jump aboard my train that's spreading the message that the Niners will get an early lead and pop a few long pass plays on the 'Hawks. That'll be enough. But barely.  49'ers 23, Seahawks 17

2013-14 NFL Divisional Playoff Picks

My macro feelings on these games are that either the Colts or Chargers - but not both - are getting blown out this weekend, that the Seahawks aren't invincible like they once were and that one offensive player is going to decide the 49'ers/Panthers defensive struggle.

Record for playoffs (2-2)
*Record against the spread (2-2)

*the spread is all that matters

Saturday

Saints at Seahawks (-9), 4:40 p.m.

Everyone knows the 'Hawks slammed New Orleans the first time these teams met, but anyone who actually watched the game knows the Saints started fine and then had some unfortunate things happen and all of a sudden they were down big and buried. Relatedly, Russell Wilson played insanely well. Here's my issue with that happening again: Well, it's actually three issues: New Orleans got over its media-created psychological road playoff hurdle last week in Philadelphia, Seattle has now lost a game at home, and the Saints' defensive line has huge advantage over Seattle's pass protection. That makes nine points too high of a spread for me. Can the Saints actually win the game outright? Of course, this is an NFL where one-score games are practically a certainty. WILL the Saints win the game outright in the toughest place to play in the NFL? Well, that's a different thing entirely. Seahawks 27, Saints 20.

Colts at Patriots (-7), 8:20 p.m.

Andrew Luck vs. Tom Brady seems like a sexy matchup, but I can't get over the fact that many of the Colts' comeback victories in the nascent Luck era have been followed with things like 38-8 losses. Plus, I've had it pounded into my head that Bill Belichick is going to take away whatever the opponent does best (in this case, throw the ball deep and in open spaces to T.Y. Hilton). It's not a cliche that Belichick is good at that. Earlier this year, he basically allowed the Broncos to run all over his team, because he didn't want Peyton Manning to tear up his secondary. It worked. That's not to say that the Pats are wonderful at taking away a No. 1 wide receiver. They were just average in that category according to Football Outsiders, which tracks this stuff. I don't have a feel for this game, but I think another week of rest for Pats' cornerback Aqib Talib should sure up the Pats' secondary enough to force Luck into some mistakes - he makes them you know - and this time, they're not going to recover. The Pats have been doing it all year on offense, and I don't really know how, but I don't see them stopping just yet. Patriots 42, Colts 13.

Sunday

49'ers at Panthers (+1.5), 1:05 p.m.

It's unfair to Carolina that Vegas still doesn't respect the Panthers enough to make them a home favorite in the playoffs. Well, I shouldn't say that. Vegas HAD them favored and the public bet them down enough to make the Niners the favorite. It seems unlikely that this game is going to be MUCH different from the 10-9 defensive battle that the Panthers won in San Francisco earlier this year. The over/under is 41.5, which is extraordinarily low for an NFL playoff game. I think this game is going to come down to Michael Crabtree. As great as the Panthers' defense is, they have issues covering No. 1 wide receivers (in fact, they're slightly worse than the injury-ravaged Patriots in that category). Crabtree didn't play in the first game, and now that he's back and healthy, I think he's going to make the difference. I'm not saying he's just going to make one key catch. I think he's going to catch nine balls for 175 yards and one of them is going to be a go-ahead touchdown. If he doesn't go off in this game, the Panthers will win. So there's your referendum. I'm in the Crabtree camp. 49'ers 24, Panthers 20.

Chargers at Broncos (-8.5), 4:45 p.m.

If you don't think the Chargers can win this game, you really don't know football. But I guess that's why you're reading! Not only did San Diego beat Denver IN Denver, holding the Broncos to under 300 TOTAL yards in the process, but they played them tight the other time the teams played too. Some teams just match up well with others. What makes the Chargers such a tough matchup for Denver is that the Broncos have a tough time getting off the field on third down (worst in the NFL at 3rd down and 4th down pass defense and fourth-worst on 3rd down and 4th down overall), and the Chargers EXCEL at converting those third downs. In an era where time of possession means very little in the quick-strike, pass-happy NFL, the Chargers make possession an important thing again. It's especially important when they're facing the most prolific offense in NFL history. 

The Chargers don't make a ton of big plays (they had the second fewest 20+ yard plays in the league this year, while the Broncos had the most), but they're the best in the league at converting 3rd-and-long, and second best in converting all 3rd downs. If the Broncos can minimize the third down success, they can get the ball back to Peyton Manning and he can throw the ball around to whomever he wants. The Chargers don't have a very good defense, even though it's improved in recent weeks and is doing a better job getting to the quarterback. Of course, getting to a quarterback and getting to Peyton Manning are entirely different things: He gets the ball out quicker than anyone, and doesn't take many sacks. So what's going to happen? I'd be foolish to say that a Broncos' blowout is impossible. All they have to do is have SOME success on 3rd down defense and all of a sudden they get two or three more possessions and 14 to 17 more points. So it CAN happen. But the Chargers are the team that's peaking right now, and I think it's going to be close. They're AT LEAST covering this spread. Is it a Ravens' situation? Are the Chargers going to win outright? I'm going to say no. Denver's going to have one extra trick up its sleeve, most likely in that play-calling wristband of its legendary quarterback. Broncos 34, Chargers 27.

2013-14 NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks

I'm 24-9 against the spread picking the playoffs these last three seasons, and it's probably all luck. Nah, I'm kidding. It's skill. I'm skilled. Plus, I look at the games as one big macro bet rather than several micro ones. It helps put a very muddled league into perspective. Or at least that's what I've told myself.

Saturday

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (+1.5), 4:35 p.m.

These teams played a few weeks ago in Kansas City and the Chiefs got pounded. I've read Bill Barnwell's insightful piece on the game and it appears that their turnover problems were an aberration more than anything. Still, the Colts have gotten hot, and I'm not sure you've noticed but they've won home games over Denver and Seattle and road games over the Niners and Chiefs. I'm completely confident in this Colts team right now, and they have the quarterback and coach advantage. PLUS they're home. If there's a sleeper Super Bowl team in the AFC, it's coming out of this game. I say the Colts are that team. The one thing that makes me nervous is how 60% of the public money is on the Colts. The public loves the Colts, and the public is dumb. But I guess I'm alright with that, considering the spread has come down from 2.5. Maybe the public loves the Chiefs. Dummies. (Note: I erroneously thought the Colts were favorites at gametime. They were actually dogs. SCORE! ) Colts 24, Chiefs 16 

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-3), 8:10 p.m.

This game has become a referendum into whether the Saints problems on the road are an epidemic. Can they play outdoors, in the cold, blah blah blah? But I can't believe that Sean Payton and Drew Brees are just going to get shut down in this game. The Eagles can't really stop the pass according to the advanced numbers, and isn't passing what the Saints do best? I think the game's going to be played in the 20s, like most Saints road games, but I believe in them no matter where they play. The Eagles are going to have trouble protecting Nick Foles, just enough trouble that a late turnover gives the game to New Orleans. Saints 24, Eagles 23

Sunday

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5), 1:05 p.m.

Ruh Roh, it's the team that snuck into the playoffs against the team quarterbacked by Andy Dalton. The Bengals have been that team that's been blowing out teams at home despite its shaky QB situation, and it's one of those situations where you don't want to pick them the ONE week where they can't make up for those mistakes. Still, the numbers I look at say that the Bengals are a solid team and the Chargers have the worst defense in the entire NFL. Phil Rivers or not, I don't see how they're going to make up for that. They're going to get pushed around on both sides of the ball, and the SECOND ROUND will give us our first great opportunity to gamble against Dalton. Bengals 30, Chargers 17

San Francisco 49'ers at Green Bay Packers (+2.5), 4:30 p.m.

Ooh, the classic matchup of two franchises with multiple Super Bowl titles. And a temperature of like, a degree or two, if they're lucky. It's almost useless looking at Green Bay's offensive rankings considering that Aaron Rodgers only returned last week. I think the game's going to come down to whether Jim Harbaugh's offense can continue fooling and abusing the Packers' defense. It's a tough one, and the coaching matchup is clearly in San Francisco's favor. Still, in what might be a game we remember a long time, I like the Packers winning an extremely close game with some sort of late big play. You know, kind of like last week. Packers 27, 49'ers 23