Record for playoffs (6-2)
*Record against the spread (6-2)
*Record against the spread (6-2)
*the spread is all that matters
Patriots at Broncos (-5), 3 p.m.
I'm still not sure why this game started as a 7-point spread. Since the start of the 2011 season, the Pats have played 36 competitive games and lost exactly ONE by more than one score. It was actually last year's AFC Championship game against the Ravens. We know the Ravens own the Pats, so I'm not really going to put any stock into that little game, as big as it was for Joe Flacco's eventual wealth. One thing I DO know is that people love to talk about Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady. It's such a fun argument. One has three Super Bowl rings, the other has one. Whatever, both these quarterbacks are good, and I tend to not fall too much in love with the "Brady is more clutch in the playoffs" or "Manning is better because he's sustained it over the regular season" arguments. They're both legends who make people around them better. That's it. As far as the teams this year, both are great at protecting the passer (thanks in part to the blockers, and in part to the passer), while New England is a bit better - especially with Von Miller missing for Denver - at getting to the passer. Amazingly, this game might come down to the running game. Both are actually pretty effective at running according to footballoutsiders, but Denver is much better at STOPPING the run (though they haven't yet had to face the full effect of a Blount-force object). The first time these two teams played, everyone thinks the Broncos ran all over New England because they found something, blah blah blah. Um, sure, they ran for 280 yards, but Peyton only threw for 150! That's what Belichick wanted! And the Pats won. Here's the thing about this game: I think it's a 3-point game, just like the first one won by the Pats. I think New England does a lot of the same things - and yeah, that means Knowshon Moreno rushing for more yards. And you know what, it might sound cliche, but there's something about how the Broncos still needed two great Manning plays on 3rd downs to put away the Chargers last week. There's something that tells me the Pats aren't the Chargers, and if you leave them an opportunity, Tom Brady is somehow going to be able to take advantage of it. So while I wouldn't be surprised if the Broncos won, I would be very surprised if they covered the spread, and I'm picking the Patriots. You know why? I don't know why. I just know it feels right. Patriots 38, Colts 35
49'ers at Seahawks (-3.5), 6:30 p.m.
To me, this is the classic case of the team that's peaking against the team that's consistently been considered the best in the league all year. How did that work out for the 18-0 Patriots against the Giants? Or the 15-1 Packers against the Giants? It's obviously not just the Giants. There's something about the NFL these days, and the team that hasn't lost in forever going against the team that once seemed invincible but has stop being so overtly impressive. I'm obviously petrified that I'm overvaluing the Cardinals' win in Seattle, which made winning there seem possible for once. But I'm not at all petrified about picking the 49'ers, a team that has picked up its pass rush and will be playing a team that protects its passer very poorly. That's a huge thing in this game. But do you want to know what's huger? Seattle's run game! Seattle and Marshawn Lynch and a sprinkling of Russell Wilson are 7th in the league at running the ball according to the aforementioned footballoutsiders and the Niners are middle of the pack. But San Francisco has played the run much better recently, and I think that's going to make the difference. You know Seattle won't give up much in the passing game, but jump aboard my train that's spreading the message that the Niners will get an early lead and pop a few long pass plays on the 'Hawks. That'll be enough. But barely. 49'ers 23, Seahawks 17
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