Myth: It’s Tough To Be an Ace Because You Always Throw Against Other Teams’ Aces
I’m sorry, but this is an easy one. I actually have heard announcers say this in 2006: “Well, he doesn’t have as many wins this year because he’s the ace, and as the ace, he has to go against the ace of all the other teams.” This is ludicrous thinking.
All Major League teams have vastly different schedules, not to mention rainouts and injuries. But still, people believe this, so I’m going to really quickly dispel it.
I’m going to take five aces who pitched on Opening Day this year – bona fide aces – and tell you who they’ve pitched against this year. And I’m so confident that I’m going to dispel this myth that I haven’t even looked at the numbers yet. I’m actually going to go into MLB.com right now, and check the numbers for the FIRST time, and there's NO DOUBT in my mind that I'm 100 PERCENT correct. That’s how stinkin’ confident I am.
Let’s pick our five pitchers right now. Okay, I’m thinking: Chris Carpenter, Carlos Zambrano, Johan Santana, Jake Peavy and Jason Schmidt. They’re all aces, right? It’s kind of funny that I picked Carpenter and Zambrano, considering they’re pitching against each other today for the second time this year, but anyway, you get the point.
Needless to say, I’m scrapping Opening Day, because obviously, they pitched against the other team’s ace on Opening Day. Also, a word of caution: a team’s “ace” on opening day might be different than the guy who’s considered their ace a few months into the season, because of poor/great performances, so I’ll just put “ace” in quotes if it’s a former ace, or the ace of a really average pitching staff (like, say, Aaron Harang of the Reds or something).
Here we go. I’m looking the numbers up now. You’re about to win some knowledge…
Zambrano: April, after Opening Day – Chris Carpenter (ace of Cardinals), Eric Milton (not the ace of the Reds), Derek Lowe (yes, he was at the time the “ace” of the Dodgers), Jason Vargas (not the ace of the Marlins), Chris Capuano (only the ace of the Brewers because of Ben Sheets’s injuries).
May – Chan Ho Park (not the ace of the Padres), Matt Cain (not the ace of the Giants), Livan Hernandez (I guess he’s the ace of the Nationals), Jose Contreras (maybe now he’s the ace of the White Sox, but not then), Tim Hudson (not the ace of the Braves), Eric Milton (still not the ace of the Reds).
June – Taylor Buchholz (probably wasn’t the ace of his little league team, let alone the Houston Astros), Brandon Claussen (our latest winning entry in the 'WHO’S NOT THE ACE OF THE REDS?' sweepstakes), Fernando Nieve (he pitches for the Astros, and he might be an ace pool player, but not an ace pitcher), CC Sabathia (clearly the ace of the Indians), Zach Jackson (another Milwaukee non-ace),
July (I’m getting tired of looking this stuff up, my point is being proven, but I WILL give you July for Zambrano, and then tie this little article together, and link to the Game Logs of the other 4 aces so you can waste your own time looking this stuff up) – Mark Buehrle (kind of the ace of the White Sox), Zach Jackson (as I said, NOT the ace of the Brewers), Tom Glavine (sorry, it’s Pedro that's the ace of the Metropolitans), Andy Pettitte (maybe would’ve been the ace of the Astros eight years ago), and Tom Glavine again.
Okay, time to tally it up: 22 starts: 3 games against pretty clear aces (Carpenter, Hernandez and Sabathia), 4 games against “kinda” aces (Lowe, Capuano, Contreras and Buehrle), and 15 games against non-aces.
What does that tell you? It tells you that Major League Baseball teams’ schedules are so uncorrelated to each other that any time two aces face each other, it’s because of luck and happenstance and not because the pitching rotations were organized in a certain way as to create an ace-against-ace matchup.
Okay, here are the links to those other pitchers’ game logs. If you actually go through the work, you’re as much of a loser as I am, and there are group therapy sessions for people like us.