Every reasonable analysis of today's games suggest we're getting a 49'ers/Chiefs Super Bowl. But the NFL isn't reasonable. The spreads are from the Bovada Sportsbook at around 1:30 p.m. (I apologize for the formatting issues, Blogger is not a good product.)
LAST WEEK
Record: 2-2
Against the spread: 1-3
PLAYOFFS
Record: 4-4
Against the spread: 2-5-1Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs, 3:05 p.m. (Spread: Chiefs favored by 7.5)
The most important question: Should the Chiefs just accept that they won't be able to stop Derrick Henry?
Weird question, I know. But the answer's yes! In their Wild Card win over the Patriots, the Titans faced a Bill Belichick defense that allowed them to run all game. And Tennessee only scored 14 points before the late pick 6 that clinched the game. The problem for the Pats was that they only scored 13 points.
So why do I think the Chiefs should play regular defense against the Titans, even if it means Henry gets what's become his usual 180 yards? Well, it's because the Chiefs are going to score a lot more than 13 points. Patrick Mahomes has weapons that Tom Brady doesn't, and the physical skills to get the ball to them in space.
All that said, while I think the Chiefs' best strategy is to let Henry get his and make sure the Titans don't make big plays in the passing game, this Titans team has all the characteristics of that shocking team that gets to the Super Bowl. Data and analytics and passing offenses be damned, the "Nobody Believes in Us" team is still a thing in 2020.
Pick: Titans +7.5, Score: Titans 28, Chiefs 27
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49’ers, 6:40 p.m. (Spread: Niners favored by 7.5)
The most important question: Has anything materially changed since these teams played earlier in the season?
When these two teams played in November, Aaron Rodgers threw for only 104 (!!!) yards, albeit partially because he narrowly missed some big throws throughout the game. He also got sacked a lot. When San Francisco had the ball, George Kittle embarrassed the Packers over the middle of the field. It all added up to a 37-8 Niners' win, in the Packers' worst game of the year?
Are we going to get the same game today? Sort of. It's highly unlikely that Rodgers will again miss every single important pass or that the Packers will fumble the ball at their own two-yard line and amass fewer than 200 yards. This game will be a little bit closer.
Materially, though, this is a 49'ers team that's better than the Packers. They're going to get another great effort from Kittle, run the ball well and harass Rodgers again. Barring a throwback, vintage performance from Rodgers - which is definitely possible - the Niners should win somewhat comfortably and advance to the Super Bowl.
Pick: Niners -7.5, Score: 49’ers 27, Packers 17
When these two teams played in November, Aaron Rodgers threw for only 104 (!!!) yards, albeit partially because he narrowly missed some big throws throughout the game. He also got sacked a lot. When San Francisco had the ball, George Kittle embarrassed the Packers over the middle of the field. It all added up to a 37-8 Niners' win, in the Packers' worst game of the year?
Are we going to get the same game today? Sort of. It's highly unlikely that Rodgers will again miss every single important pass or that the Packers will fumble the ball at their own two-yard line and amass fewer than 200 yards. This game will be a little bit closer.
Materially, though, this is a 49'ers team that's better than the Packers. They're going to get another great effort from Kittle, run the ball well and harass Rodgers again. Barring a throwback, vintage performance from Rodgers - which is definitely possible - the Niners should win somewhat comfortably and advance to the Super Bowl.
Pick: Niners -7.5, Score: 49’ers 27, Packers 17
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