Playoff Picks, Divisional Playoffs, 2010

Record for the playoffs: 2-2
Record against the spread: 2-2

Cardinals at Saints, Saturday at 4:30 p.m. (Saints favoured by 7)

I think it's in Bill Simmons's original playoff gambling manifesto that you shouldn't pick an underdog unless you think they can win outright. Well, I DO think the Cardinals have a SHOT to win outright, and I also think that seven points is entirely too high a number in this game. I was under the impression that the Cardinals made the Super Bowl last year and that the Saints are trying to become the first team in history to LOSE their last THREE games of the season and STILL win the Super Bowl. So you think I'm going with the Cards now, don't you? I just can't do it. I'm sorry. I just can't.

Obviously, everyone is saying this game is a shootout (the over/under is like 56.5 or something), but I actually look at it differently. I think it's clear that both teams are going to score SOME points, but the Saints are No. 1 in the league in both yards and points. The Cardinals are barely in the top half in yardage, and like No. 11 or something in points scored. Both teams are at their best when they're rushing the passer. The Cardinals had more sacks during the year, but the Saints aren't bad at getting a little pressure on people. I think that for whatever reason, one of these teams is going to win the game because they applied a TON more pressure on the opposing quarterback than the other. I'm talking, one team gets five sacks the other gets two. Or something. And I really do believe that it's going to be the Saints hurrying Kurt Warner into a few mistakes, and pounding him a bit. Here's why:

The Saints are somehow - even after the 13-3 season - the team that NOBODY believes in. I know I'm hacking from Simmons here, but that's a key in 2010 playoff football. The Cardinals have become the team that "can definitely do it," and the Saints are the team that definitely can't. Motivation-wise, the Cardinals are already proven now. Their Super Bowl appearance wasn't a fluke, everyone thinks they can go back actually. And they definitely are talented enough. But not today.

Oh, and speaking of playoff gambling manifestos, I've come up with a new one: Don't pick an underdog to cover. Just pick a winner. I can only think of a few playoff games recently where the favourite WON but DIDN'T cover. I'm not looking this up, but how come my record against the spread is always the same as my record? So if I think the Saints are going to win the game, I have to put a number on the margin that's bigger than seven. Which I feel good about. This is the game I'm most confident in this weekend.
Saints 30, Cards 20



Ravens at Colts, Saturday at 8 p.m. (Colts favoured by 6.5)

I remember reading a Tony Dungy quote once where he said something like, "We don't care who it is or where we are or what the situation is, we feel like we can move the ball on anyone." Peyton Manning still plays for the Colts, so despite how awesome the Ravens defense can be and was last week, it's not awesome enough in Indianapolis. Peyton rarely gets touched, which wouldn't be such a problem if the Ravens had a healthy and complete secondary. But they won't. They might get stopped for field goals in this game, but they'll put up enough points. The Ravens are going to need big plays from Joe Flacco, and I've heard reports about his hip injury ranging from "he's fine," to "they considered euthanising him during the plane ride to Indianapolis." I'm sure the real answer is somewhere in between, but I don't think his health would swing this game in either direction. If his mobility is hindered, that could lead to some sacks and mistakes. So maybe we'll make it a 10-point win for the Colts instead of my original gut, which was about 7.
Colts 23, Ravens 13



Cowboys at Vikings, Saturday at 1 p.m. (Vikings favoured by 2.5)

Most people say this is the toughest game to predict this weekend, but I say it's actually the easiest. The Vikings are playing against the hottest team in the NFC, and Brett Favre hasn't had one "Bad Favre" game yet. That's actually BAD. It's the playoffs. That's when he pulls out some of those legendarily bad games. (playoff games since 2001: 14 TD, 16 INT.) Dallas is one of the worst teams in the league at intercepting the ball, but I say they get a few tomorrow. Not because they suddenly become ballhawks, but because Favre returns to his usual playoff gunslinging ways after the Vikes fall behind. Nobody pushes the panic button faster than Favre. And nobody will ever call Tony Romo a "small" big-game player after these playoffs.
Cowboys 31, Vikings 17.



Jets at Chargers, Sunday at 4:30 p.m. (Chargers favoured by 7)

The spread on this game has come down two points this week. Why? Not because people think the Jets are going to win, but because they just don't see the Chargers blowing the Jets out. And that's smart gambling. The Chargers AREN'T going to blow the Jets out. There are about four different ways this game could play out, and only one way I see the Chargers winning by more than two touchdowns. That's the "Chargers go up 14-0 early" scenario. If that happens - if Philip Rivers drives them down the field for two early scores, or worse yet, Mark Sanchez does something dumb in the first quarter - it could get really ugly really fast.

So the Jets need to MAKE SURE that they don't get behind big early (this may sound obvious). They need to think of the first quarter as "let's survive, even if we get knocked down a few times, we CANNOT get knocked out." That's all up to the coaches and their gameplan. So scenario 2 is the Jets down by seven, or even (GASP) 10 by halftime, they have a legit shot at - with the help of their defense - getting a score to make it a 4 point game or whatever, and playing good enough defense the rest of the way to get a legit 2-minute drill at the end (where Sanchez is going to have to actually do quarterbacky things to win the game. Maybe they get a break.).

The third scenario is that the Jets do what the Giants did to the Pats in Super Bowl XLII, which is start out with a really long, methodical, manageable third down opening drive and take an early lead - even if only by a field goal - so that the worst-case scenario is that they're down like 7-3 after the first quarter. That's kind of a corollary to the "don't get knocked out early," scenario, but with a little bit more of Jets proactiveness.

The fourth scenario - and the one that I'm betting on here - is that the Jets do something crazy early that shocks the Chargers. I'm thinking it's going to be a flea flicker or other sort of long pass - one that Braylon Edwards ACTUALLY catches - but it could just as easily be a sack of Rivers that causes a fumble and Jet return for touchdown. An early big punch, and maybe a bit of panic by the Chargers. San Diego's inability to run could hurt in this game, because I think it means the Jets can concentrate more on coverage (I still don't know how they'll cover Antonio Gates, but whatevs.)

So anyway, I'm saying the Jets go up 10-0 early or something, and then the Chargers get a few shots in, but it ends up with a Phil Rivers 2-minute drill to try and win the game. And as it's done so much recently, the Jets' defense makes a play to put away the game, and a possible miracle run continues. So there's your big shocker...
Jets 19, Chargers 17.