Playoff Picks, Conference Title Games, 2010

Record for the playoffs: 5-3
Record against the spread: 5-3

Jets at Colts, Saturday at 3 p.m. (Colts favoured by 8)

I'm really tempted be the only person in the world who actually picks the JETS to win by MORE THAN A TOUCHDOWN, but that sounds silly. I think the Jets are going to win, not because of any numbers that exist that say "Mark Sanchez will beat Peyton Manning with a Super Bowl berth on the line," or even any numbers that suggest the Jets are better than the Colts in any other way. Sure, they have the defense, the running game, the Revis factor. But an intelligent analysis of this game should point you to a Colts pick. The thing is, I'm against intelligent analysis. The last five years of NFL football have taught me that intelligent and rational don't always win. In fact, I think unintelligent and irrational might even win more often. So here's what I think is going to happen in this game:

I think the Jets are going to figure out ways to cover the Colts' receivers (sure, whomever Revis covers is going to be stopped, but the Jets have to worry about all of Manning's other options. They're weakish at safety, but because of the Colts inability to consistently run the ball, the Jets will be able to be creative with the way they cover.) I dont' see any way that the Jets are going to get consistent pressure on Manning, but they should get SOME. They should move him around a little. And he's going to make some mistakes. There are going to be some disguised coverages, maybe the Jets will be fortunate on a few of those crazy safety blitzes. The Jets will win this game if it's ugly, and I think they're going to get it ugly. That's not to say the Colts can't win a game like that. They totally can. And they kind of did last week. But not this week. Sometimes, destiny and all those crappy cliches defy anything we can actually see on paper. Let's just say I think the Jets will get all their big wishes: The game will be played in the high teens and low 20s, Manning will make at least three mistakes, and - perhaps most importantly - the Colts will get more field goals than touchdowns.

Sanchez will make one play downfield, maybe two. And that will be enough with the Jets running game. I don't know why, but it will. Just trust me on this one.
Jets 23, Colts 16



Vikings at Saints, Saturday at 6:40 p.m. (Saints favoured by 3.5)

In my highly expert opinion, gained from spending all my time hanging out with the teams, going to practices, talking to the head coaches, I think this game will go in one of two directions: Either Brett Favre: Mistake Maker will return to the field, with the Saints hawking balls and taking advantage of the turnovers with touchdowns, or Jared Allen of the Vikings will physically and emotionally abuse Saints' left tackle Jermon Bushrod and get plenty of hits on Drew Brees. That's right. We know about these teams' offenses, but I think this one comes down to defense. It won't be a Green Bay/Arizona style shootout. It will instead be a game where one of the defenses makes plays, and the other one doesn't (or maybe both make a few plays.) In the end, I think it's the Vikings getting pressure on Brees, to the point where the Saints can't get into the 30s. When they don't have rhythm, they're in trouble. And I think this week, they are.

One thing is certain: The "coolest" Super Bowl storyline NEVER pans out (the battle of Pennsylvania last year, Undefeated Brady vs. Legendary Favre in Super Bowl XLII, Peyton Manning vs. the rejuvenated but still troubled city of New Orleans three years ago). This year, the coolest storyline would be Manning vs. Favre, two legendary quarterbacks playing each other with the winner getting his second Super Bowl title, putting himself in the same sentence as Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Terry Bradshaw, and all those other guys (there aren't many.) Let's settle for the second best storyline, the Jets vs. the Vikings with Favre playing against the team with whom he had a forgettable one-year cameo, but still was able to get the coach fired and change the organisation. I'll take it.
Vikings 30, Saints 20