The Super Bowl Prediction You Don’t Care About
2009 Playoff Record (6-4)

2009 Playoff Record against the spread (6-4)

Sure it’s the lousiest possible matchup the NFL could’ve ever gotten. Sure we have to really squeeze that orange to get juice out of this story (Kurt Warner loves his Bible more than he loves his playbook, says a different kind of “Hail Mary,” and is thankful to little 8-pound, 6-ounce Baby Jesus that he is back in the Super Bowl, Larry Fitzgerald plays sports and his daddy writes about them, Steelers fans still like to wave towels around and work in the mill or the iron shop or wherever tough people work, Arizona has an NFL franchise). But it’s the Super Bowl. It’s still exciting. It’s going to be anti-climactic compared to last year’s game, but it’s still compelling for THESE reasons.

1. Nobody in the entire world could have imagined Arizona making it here. Among all the playoff teams coming into the playoffs, the Cardinals ranked last in points allowed, last in rushing yards, last in giving up touchdowns in the red zone, second-to-last in first downs allowed, you get the point. Seriously, they outscored their opponents in the regular season 427-426. By ONE point. Can you believe that? But somehow, in the playoffs, they started generating a pass rush, running the ball kind of effectively, and voila, they’re suddenly always playing from ahead. And when you play from ahead and can rush the passer a little bit, you can win games. Imagine that.

2. Larry Fitzgerald is God. I’m sorry Kurt Warner. Well, actually, that’s probably why you throw to him so much. You probably know he’s God. He seriously is though. And he played in college at Pitt., where he was also awesome. So there’s a little hometown thingamajiggy goin’ on. He’s seriously amazing. The best player on the field, and it isn’t even close.

3. The Steelers looked like they had peaked earlier in the season, but they fooled us. They’re ACTUALLY peaking right now. Beating the Chargers and the Ravens wasn’t easy. The Chargers were playing great, and the Ravens looked like that ultimate “sneak into the Super Bowl” team. Pittsburgh knocked everyone out.

4. Really, this is the most important thing. These two teams – at this point in the season and perhaps ONLY at this point in the season – are clearly the best teams in their respective conferences. Nobody is in this game because of anything flukey. If you knew nothing about football and watched the playoffs, and you knew nothing about point spreads or defending champions or playoff experience or coaching experience or any of that crap, and you just watched the Steelers and Cardinals play, you would have thought this game was inevitable. And now it’s here. And now it’s time for me to make my pick.

THE PICK:

Talent-wise, the Steelers are seriously the better team. They hit much harder, they’re much more consistent, they have a quarterback who never goes down after the first hit, they have one tough safety wearing No. 43. They’re pretty well-coached.

But here’s the problem: The way the Cardinals are playing, the way they’ve basically changed the way they play this past month, the Steelers aren’t THAT much better than them. They’re better, but only marginally. If you remember playing Super Mario Bros. for Nintendo, each world had 4 boards. Well, the Cardinals are on the eighth world right now, and beating the Falcons, Panthers and Eagles brings them to the last board. It’s called 8-4.

On their way through the game, the Cardinals have had to learn how to win in different ways, like an experienced Nintendo player has to learn how to win with little Mario after he gets hit with a boomerang. They’ve had to go through the water worlds, they’ve used their might at times to squash those flying ducks, or Eagles, or wherever this metaphor is going.

But now, on 8-4, they’re at the last dragon. On their way, they’ve learned all the tricks. They can play a little bit of a power running game – thanks to the resurgence of Edge James – or they can just throw the ball over you, thanks to Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston. And their defense isn’t amazing, but it has guys who can cover, and guys who can rush, and you can’t run all over them. They can force Roethlisberger into mistakes, and I think he’s going to make one too many.

In the end, I think this is going to come down to one final drive. I really do. And I think that the ball is going to be in Warner’s hands, and it’s the equivalent of Mario having fireballs. I think that the guy who has both the No. 1 AND No. 2 biggest passing-yard games in Super Bowl history is going to do it. And what better way to do it then to find Fitzgerald – the best player on the field – in the end?

I think that if these teams played seven times, Pittsburgh would win five of them. But tomorrow night, I don’t think it’s going to happen. Sorry, Steelers. Our princess is in another castle. Cardinals 30, Steelers 27.