Playoff Picks, Conference Semifinals
So last week, the one game I wasn't sure of was the one game I lost. And I still think that the winner of that game - the Chargers - could go to the Super Bowl, even though as I'm typing this, I think I might pick against them this week. That's how crazy the AFC is. The NFC, on the other hand, well, I think it's a lot clearer. Let's get to the picks.

Last Week's Record (3-1)
Last Week's Record against the spread (3-1)

Ravens at Titans (Titans favoured by 3)
I was all prepared to pick the Titans in this game. I really was. "Joe Flacco is a rookie quarterback," my thinking went, "and since these teams are pretty even, I'm going to have to go with Kerry Collins, the experienced quarterback with the home-field advantage." But then, I was riding the subway, and I saw a guy reading the Daily News. On some fateful page within the sports section, the News had a side-by-side picture of Collins and Ravens' defensive touchdown machine Ed Reed. All of a sudden, I started getting horrible flashbacks to Super Bowl XXXV, when Collins threw four balls that were caught by Ravens and four others that should have been caught by Ravens. I drank nine Heinekens in the first half. The second that thought popped into my head, I realised something. There is no possible way the Ravens are losing this game. I am more sure about this game than any other game this weekend. And the only explanation I have is this four-word declaration: "Kerry Collins/Ed Reed." Ravens 17, Titans 6

Cardinals at Panthers (Panthers favoured by 10)
Technically, this should be the easiest game on the board. I have a weird feeling that Arizona could actually do some things early on, but I think that I'm just delusional. They don't do well on the road - especially on the East coast - and they certainly aren't as tough as the Panthers, or have any of the attributes of a dangerous road playoff team. Here are the things that DO make me uneasy about laying 10 points with Carolina:

1) Edge James ran real well against the Falcons, and the Panthers' defense gave up just about as many rushing yards as Atlanta this year.

2) The teams played a close game earlier this year. (But it was MUCH earlier in the year, before the Cardinals started playing like garbage.)

3) As Bill Simmons pointed out in his NFL picks column this week, Saturday night games can be crazysexywild, like Mike Vick winning in Green Bay a few years back, the "Tuck Rule" game, Romo's botched snap.

Despite all these things, the same Bill Simmons says in one of his 47 "Playoff Gambling Manifestos" that you should ONLY take an underdog if you think the team has a chance to win outright. That's a good axiom. And when I really think about it, I can't see the Cardinals winning this game outright. I think Carolina will run through Arizona early, build a lead, and then be able to rush the passer and all those fun things. Just remember I warned you that what appears to be the easiest pick this week has me feeling a tad uneasy. Carolina 27, Arizona 14

Eagles at Giants (Giants Favoured by 4)
Technically a tough game. They know each other real well. Philly has all the look of last year's Giants, right down to the whole "going into the No. 1 seed's/division rival's building in the second-round of the playoffs" thing. It's supposed to be scary. But I realised early in the week - perhaps Monday - that a lot of things are different. When the Giants went into Dallas last year, they were going against a team that not only had a lot of pressure on it, but that had shown trouble DEALING with pressure in the past. And it started with the quarterback. The Giants don't have that problem. Plus, Dallas is very much a pass-oriented team, and when you have a bye, sometimes your passing game gets out of rhythm, and you fall behind early and get frustrated. The Giants are very much a run-oriented team, so that problem seems unlikely. The Eagles are also woefully inconsistent, and I find it hard to believe they're going to play a third-straight good game. I would NOT be shocked if they kept it close or pulled off the upset - and I can all but GUARANTEE that the winner of this game IS going to the Super Bowl - but this is too much a step up in class for Philly. The Giants still have a chip on their shoulder, and their admirable defense of the Super Bowl title isn't going to end at the Meadowlands this weekend. Giants 20, Eagles 10.

Chargers at Steelers (Steelers Favoured By 6)
A big spread for two teams that played that "11-10" game earlier this year, especially considering the Chargers are the hottest team in the playoffs right now. And I HAVE said the Chargers/Colts winner could go to the Super Bowl. For the second-straight week, the Chargers are involved in the game I feel least confident about. Many forces are going against each other in this game. The Chargers are awesome picking up third downs, the Steelers are awesome at stopping third-down conversions. The Steelers don't give up points, the Chargers score a lot of them. Lots of weird stuff going on. Maybe I just think the home-field advantage is big enough, and that the Steelers are going to play their best game of the season. That doesn't mean it's going to be easy, but the Chargers aren't that good on the road, can't expect ANOTHER one of those games from Darren Sproles and are due for a loss. Plus, Pittsburgh has the uncanny ability to force teams to play their low-scoring, hard-hitting style - I mean they held the high-scoring Chargers to 10 POINTS earlier this year - so why wouldn't that happen again? Pittsburgh 20, San Diego 13.