Playoff Picks, Wild Card Weekend, 2009

I usually pick one road team to win a game on Wild Card Weekend, and then go with the three other home teams. It’s just the formula that seems to make the most sense.

Then, an 8-8 Chargers team, 9-7 Cardinals team, a Viking team with Tavaris Jackson playing quarterback, and the lowest scoring team in the entire playoffs (Miami) got home games. And they're ALL underdogs. What the hell am I supposed to do? After much scrambletating, I think I’ve got it figured out.

Because I’m an enormous dork, I made a spreadsheet ranking the teams in all the relevant categories – or at least all the relevant categories according to me – to see if I was missing anything. I ranked them – offensively and defensively – in scoring, rushing yards, passing yards, first downs per game (big stat: it shows you can move the ball – or not), third down percentage, red-zone touchdown percentage and turnover margin (the crapshoot stat.)

By no means will I absolutely honour everything these stats tell me, but if you believe the numbers, and analyse them the way I do, the best teams in the playoffs, in order, are:

1. (tie) Giants and Ravens

3. Steelers

4. Eagles

5. Colts

6. Titans

7. Dolphins

8. Falcons

9. (tie) Vikings and Chargers

11. Panthers

12. Cardinals

Of course, these numbers don’t account for how a team’s playing now, injuries, etc. For some of the teams, the numbers are telling. I mean, it's clear that the Cardinals are pretty much a piece of garbage as a playoff team. But there are some weird discrepancies. As far as balance goes, the Ravens aren’t even close to being as good as the Giants. But then again, I thoroughly THOROUGHLY believe that the Panthers could theoretically win a game at the Meadowlands to advance to the Super Bowl. I don’t think they will, but I think they could. They’re ranked 11^th? It’s kind of surprising. But I know what I’m doing here. Let’s do it.

Falcons at Cardinals (Falcons favoured by 1.5)

Okay, so the Cardinals are not just the worst team in the playoffs statistically, but they’re the worst unstatistically. They’re playing like garbage, they’re soft, they’re everything you don’t want to bet on in an NFL playoff game. It doesn’t matter though. One home team has to win this weekend – it’s impossible for all road teams to win – and so that’s really the only reason I’m going with Arizona. Well, that and the reality that Matt Ryan is a rookie, and rookie QBs do NOT typically fare well in their first playoff game. And the Falcons’ pass defense is just as bad as the Cardinals.’ And Anquan Boldin is going to play, meaning he’s going to catch 8 balls for 156 yards. I actually think Ryan will be okay, just not okay enough.
Arizona 38, Atlanta 31.

Colts at Chargers (Colts favoured by 1)

The way these two teams are playing, I really believe that the winner of this game could go to the Super Bowl. I’m not saying the winner WILL go to the Super Bowl, but it is very possible. I’ve wavered on this game. The Colts are playing as well as anyone, but the way the Chargers got into the playoffs – winning their last four games including a blowout win in a play-in game last Sunday night over Denver – makes me think THEY may be the hotter team. I don’t know, though. I just have to pick a winner here, and even though Indy can’t run OR stop the run, I’m going to go with Peyton Manning leading a few longish, clutch drives that end in touchdowns (they score touchdowns 68% of the time when they get inside the 20.)
Indy 23, S.D. 20.

Ravens at Dolphins (Ravens favoured by 3)

Miami’s a cute story. They’re 1-15, they get Parcells, they resurrect Pennington, they turn the ball over at a record-low rate, they get sweet redemption (or Pennington gets sweet redemption) by winning in East Rutherford in Week 17. It’s all so adorable. You know what’s not adorable? When they don’t score a single touchdown against the Ravens on Sunday.
Balt 24, Mia 6.

Eagles at Vikings (Eagles favoured by 3)

As a Giants fan, no team scares the hell out of me more than the Eagles. I have to root for the Vikings in this game, because I am scared to death that the Eagles are this year’s Giants. That said, Philly – the city in general – is having some sort of disgusting sports revival this year, and this is not the week it’s going to end. It might be ugly, too. The Vikings aren’t that good.
Phi 27, Minn 10.