It’s the greatest football weekend of the year!
LAST WEEK
Record: 2-2
Against the spread: 2-1-1
SATURDAY
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs, 4:35 p.m. (Spread: Chiefs favored by 5)
It’s currently snowing in Kansas City, but the current forecast says that should stop right around kickoff. I’m going to treat this one like weather isn’t a factor.
The Colts are by far the more complete team in this game, which isn’t usually the case for a road team in the Divisional round. The problem for Indianapolis is that even if they do many things better than Kansas City, there’s nothing they’re as great at doing as the Chiefs are at scoring points.
The problem for the Chiefs, of course, is their defense can’t stop anybody. That list will include Andrew Luck after this game, but does that mean the Chiefs are doomed? Of course not.
Patrick Mahomes put up one of the best seasons of any quarterback in NFL history, and as long as he can keep playing the way he has all year, the Chiefs are going to score points. In its analysis of this game, Football Outsiders pointed out that many quarterbacks who’ve had unbelievable seasons have seen their Luck (pun moderately intended) run out during the playoffs.
Couple that with Andy Reid and the Chiefs’ no good, very bad history against the Colts in the postseason, and my unusually high level of empathy really feels for Chiefs fans right now. I’m going to pick them to pull the game out, with the Chiefs taking advantage of the Colts’ inability to cover tight end Travis Kelce. Call it 34-30, with the Colts covering the spread. But if Luck gets that ball at the end with a chance to win the game, I’ll be watching with a hand over my eye.
Pick: Colts +5, Score: Chiefs 33, Colts 30
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams, 8:15 p.m. (Spread: Rams favored by 7)
If you’re into betting on favorites, this game is one of several this weekend with a troubling trend: The advanced stats show the Cowboys (along with some of the other underdogs) as trending upward in the second half of the season, while the Rams have gone the other way.
The Rams are the much more talented team, and I think the rest will be an advantage for them. Two things trouble me from a Rams’ standpoint: On defense they have trouble covering No. 1 receivers, which could mean a big game from Amari Cooper. When they have the ball, Jared Goff hasn’t looked right.
I’m going to wager that Rams’ coach Sean McVay and his staff have a plan to rectify my concerns, and erase the bad memories of that home playoff loss to the Falcons last year.
Pick: Rams -7, Score: Rams 34, Cowboys 24
SUNDAY
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots, 1:05 p.m. (Spread: Pats favored by 4)
I took a leap during the Super Bowl last year and decided not to believe in the Patriots’ “mystique” anymore. It worked out well for me, and I’m going to keep doing the same thing. I’m looking at this Patriots team, one that underperformed against expectations during the regular season, as a normal squad. They have a great coach, an aging quarterback who can’t beat the blitz and a dearth of deep threats.
They also have an advantage running the ball and throwing to running back James White, and will probably rely on that against the Chargers. I like the Chargers’ chances at moving the ball on New England, which has a pretty average defense. One thing to watch out for, though: The Pats blitz a lot, and those are the types of teams that give Philip Rivers trouble. I think this game is going to be super close, and I think the Pats are the inferior team. Their mystique died after that comeback win in last year’s AFC Championship game against the Jags, and it ain’t ever coming back.
Pick: Chargers +4. Score: Chargers 27, Pats 24
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints, 4:40 p.m. (Spread: Saints favored by 8)
There really seems to be something about Nick Foles, AKA Large Richard Nicholas (h/t to Football Outsiders for that outstanding nickname from the site’s game preview). Is that enough for the Eagles to stay close in this game?
NO. There’s a reason the Saints blew out the Eagles earlier this year. Plus, Foles hasn’t been good on long bombs this year, and that’s the Saints’ biggest defensive weakness. I expect the Eagles to dink and dunk with throws to Darren Sproles and Wendell Smallwood against a Saints’ defense that doesn’t defend running back catches very well, but to come up small when they try to go deep.
The difference in the game, though, will be the Saints’ offense. Expect an early lead and some of that rhythm we saw from them earlier in the season that has gone missing recently. The Saints’ downward trajectory makes me a little worried about having so much conviction here, but it’s Drew Brees. His presence makes me worry less.
Pick: Saints -8. Score: Saints 37, Eagles 17
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