Playoff Picks, Conference Title Games, 2018-19

I've got fully developed thoughts on today's games, but I don't have a fully developed amount of time.  So I'll just focus on my one key for the game.

Record Last Week: 3-1
Against the Spread: 1-3

Record for the Playoffs: 5-3
Against the Spread: 3-4-1

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints, 3:05 p.m. (Spread: Saints favored by 3)

What the game comes down to: Whether the slowdown by Drew Brees and the Saints' offense is a five-week fluke, or indicative of a larger problem.

What I think: Five-week fluke. I think the Saints' offensive rhythm, which has been missing for weeks but sort of started coming back during their 20-14 comeback win over the Eagles last week, will be all the way back for this game. I also think Mark Ingram, the running back people tend to forget about in this Saints' offense, will run for over 100 yards and two touchdowns.

The pick: SAINTS -3. Score: Saints 30, Rams 20

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs, 6:40 p.m. (Spread: Chiefs favored by 3)

What the game comes down to: Whether the Chiefs' defensive performance against the Colts last week was a one-week blip against an offense that had a bad day, or a sign that Kansas City can at least get a few stops and/or force a turnover or two.

What I think: This game comes down to offense, I get that. There was a total of ONE punt between these two teams (by the Chiefs) when the Pats won by 43-40 earlier this season. But after watching the Pats' offense look like a machine last week against a much better Chargers' defense, I think holding the Pats to, say, less than 34 points becomes the key to this game for the Chiefs. Their defense has been much better at home this year than on the road, and I think the home field makes the difference here. The Chiefs get a few stops, and they get to the Super Bowl.,

The pick: CHIEFS -3. Score: Chiefs 30, Pats 26