2014-15 NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks

In the past four seasons, I’ve gone 31-13 picking NFL playoff games against the spread (because anyone could pick winners without the spread). So I’m good at it. And you know what they say about improving yourself, right? If you’re good at something, you should just keep doing that and not try anything new, because you’re going to embarrass yourself. In fact, it should be the only thing you ever write on the blog you keep. Okay, I say that. They don’t say anything.

Saturday

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-6.5), 4:35 p.m.

Is this the least anticipated playoff game in NFL history? NOT FOR ME. I never thought I’d get a chance to legally (well, not legally) bet against Ryan Lindley in a road playoff game, but here it is! It’s too bad for Arizona, because even with Drew Stanton they’d probably be favored in this game. The Cardinals do enough things on defense that it’s still POSSIBLE they won’t get blown out in this game. Carolina shouldn’t be able to run the ball, and they’re not exactly the greatest at protecting Cam Newton. Still, the fact that the Cardinals don’t have the running game to take advantage of Carolina’s weak run defense, coupled with the Lindley factor, makes it a pretty easy pick. It’s Carolina.  Panthers 20, Cardinals 10

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3), 8:15 p.m.

The closest thing the NFL has to a great rivalry now that Jim Harbaugh is back in Ann Arbor, I think this is probably the game of the weekend. With Le’Veon Bell out, Pittsburgh isn’t just hurt in the running game. He’s excellent in the passing game too. The book on the Ravens is that their secondary is more banged up than perhaps any other unit on any team in the playoffs. But they can throw the ball down the field, and that’s what Pittsburgh sucks at defending. Baltimore’s also getting Haloti Ngata back, and has the most fierce pass rush out of any team in the playoffs, if you go by adjusted sack rate. I know the Steelers have a very recent win over the Ravens, and that Baltimore's offense has looked gross the past few weeks against some mediocre competition. But I trust they'll play well in this game, and make some big plays. The Steelers will too. Gone are the days of the 13-10 Ravens/Steelers games. This one’s going to be a shootout, and I think it’s going to the Ravens.  Ravens 31, Steelers 28

Sunday

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3), 1 p.m.

Indianapolis abused the Bengals when these teams played earlier in the season, but both squads look very different right now. If it were any team other than the Colts, Cincinnati would be susceptible to the run game. If it were… Oh my God, why am I wasting any more time on this. It’s Andrew Luck against Andy Dalton. That’s good enough for me. Colts 23, Bengals 16

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7), 4:40 p.m.

You may’ve heard Dallas is good at running the football and Detroit is good at not letting you run the football. You may’ve heard that Tony Romo has playoff problems and Matthew Stafford has big-game problems. I don’t know about seven points, it just seems so high. My problem isn’t with Cowboys' offense, they definitely have the quarterback and the running game and the weapons to mitigate some of the excellence we’re sure to see from the Lions. My problem is that Dallas’s defense could be just the thing to nudge Detroit awake from what seems like a yearlong slumber on offense. Give me Calvin Johnson on a few jump balls, Golden Tate on a few big third downs, and you have yourself a close game. Plus, there's a chance Detroit could out-Dallas Dallas by running the ball and keeping it away from the Cowboys, because that suspect Dallas defense will let you do what you want at times. I feel like the road team’s going to win in either Pittsburgh or Dallas, so I’ll give the Cowboys the close victory, but they won’t cover the spread. Cowboys 27, Lions 21