Record last week: 4-0
Against the spread: 3-1
Record for the playoffs: 8-0
Against the spread: 7-1
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-8), 3:05 p.m.
Seattle doesn't only have the best defense in the league according to both traditional mindless numbers and the advanced ones. This team actually possesses a top-five offense too! The Packers have the top offense in the league according to Football Outsiders, but their defense is just ordinary. And, oh yeah, Aaron Rodgers' calf is again going to hamper his ability to do those awesome Aaron Rodgers things he can do with his legs. Sprinkle in the fact that Seattle might legitimately rush for 300 yards in this game, and it all just becomes too much for the Packers to overcome. Seahawks 27, Packers 10
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-7), 6:40 p.m.
We all knew last week that the only way Indianapolis could win in Denver would be with an all-time performance by Andrew Luck. But he didn't really have that kind of game. He played fine, but the Colts didn't win because of him. They won thanks to a surprising run game, a nice pass rush and Peyton Manning playing with a hole in his quadricep. This week, I REALLY think it's going to come down to Luck. New England ran like hell over the Colts the first time these teams played this season, and if you go back to last year, Luck didn't play a big-boy game when the Colts came into Foxboro during the Divisional playoffs. I think both those things are going to dramatically change this time, and it's going to be enough for Indianapolis to keep it close and get the upset. Chuck Pagano is a good defensive coach, and he knows that if he tries to take away everything, he'll take away nothing. That means choosing between committing to stopping the run and committing to stopping Rob Gronkowski, I expect Gronk to have a huge game, but Pagano knows the key will be to stop the run and maximize the amount of time Luck is on the field. And I think he'll succeed.
Colts 30, Patriots 27
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