Playoff Picks, Divisional Round, 2012-13

I went 4-0 against the spread last week, which gets me to thinking that I can have the magical 11-0 postseason. But the divisional round is the easiest place to get tripped up. The last time all four home teams won their first game after the bye came in 2004, so it's pretty clear that at least one road team is going to the conference title round. The question is, will it be two or three? THAT hasn't happened since the 2008 playoffs, although it also happened in 2006 and 2007. I say yes.

Record last week:                               4-0
Record last week (against the spread): 4-0

Saturday

Ravens at Broncos (Broncos favored by 10)

I talked myself into the Ravens for this game earlier in the week, when noone in the world seemed to be picking them. But then Bill Simmons picked Baltimore in his Grantland column and it made me uneasy. I was much more comfortable picking Baltimore when NOBODY believed in them. Now, I'm not so sure. The case is pretty straightforward: 1) Peyton Manning has never won a playoff game with the temperature below 40 degrees AND he's wearing a glove. 2) A prohibitive favorite seems to lose in the divisional round every year nowadays, and it's probably not going to be the Patriots (the Falcons and 49'ers are slight home favorites, but not prohibitive favorites by any stretch. 3) Joe Flacco has a 6-4 career playoff record, can make big plays, and is not the sort of quarterback who you feel totally icky betting on. 

Of course, all three of those points are equally easy to rebut: 1) One of those games happened 11 years ago, when Peyton still hadn't won a playoff game, and the other two were in New England against Patriots teams that went on to win the Super Bowl. 2) C'mon Joe, the Broncos are the least likely home team to get upset this week. 3) You're seriously considering taking Joe Flacco on the road against Peyton Manning in the playoffs, only a few weeks after the Broncos destroyed the Ravens IN Baltimore?

They say you're not supposed to pick a road team/underdog to cover the point spread in the playoffs unless you think they can win the game outright. So that rules out what I kind of want to do, taking the Broncos in a close game. Also, there's no reason to try and be a hero. If I want to go 4-0 again this week, I'm just going to have to trust my gut: Peyton is going to come out possessed, the crowd in Denver is going to come out insane, and my entire theory of Baltimore this and Baltimore that and nobody believes in Baltimore is going to be blown out of the water when Denver goes up 14-0 before anyone has even caught their breath. Baltimore will spend the rest of the time trying to prove they belong on the field, but time will run out. 

(Be warned though. If Baltimore is in the game, they may win it. Relatedly, I may or may not have hedged the following prediction by betting that Ray Rice would score the first touchdown of the game.)
Broncos 27, Ravens 16


Packers at 49'ers (49'ers favored by 3)


Simmons linked to this video in his column and it made me realize that I shouldn't be worried about my extremely bullish feeling about the Packers. Colin Kaepernick might be a good quarterback some day, but how could I ever take him in his first playoff game against a guy with a permanent chip on his shoulder going into the city that snubbed him in the draft and oh, just happens to be the best player in the NFL? I can't do that you silly goose! Who do you think I am?
Packers 24, 49'ers 10

Sunday

Seahawks at Falcons (Falcons favored by 2.5)

It's very, very easy to get sucked into the feeling that noone trusts the Falcons in this game, and pretty much everyone likes the Seahawks, and therefore it's better to just go the other way. Not me! The Seahawks are on one of those runs that don't get stopped by people like Matt Ryan, at least not yet. I don't like the idea of betting on the Falcons when they're obviously going to be so tight, it just makes no sense to me. The things that scare me about picking the Seahawks have absolutely nothing to do with the players or the teams. They're more the intangible things like home field and "nobody believes in us even though we're 13-3" type angst and blah blah blah. Who cares. Seattle is better, and will win a close game. The one thing that really impressed me about them last week was how they kept their poise down 14-0. That tells me that even if they don't completely weather the little storm that could erupt in the first few minutes if the Falcons get some momentum, the 'Hawks will figure out a way to stabilize the game. That's all I need to know, even if they are doing the dreaded "West coast team playing a 1 p.m. game on the East Coast" thing. I'm comfortable here.
Seahawks 27, Falcons 20

Texans at Patriots (Patriots favored by 10)

Eyes, not statistics, are what I'm using to evaluate this game. I have two eyes, and they've seen these two teams on the field together. And one of them doesn't belong there. Too much Brady, receivers, home field, Schaub looking hurt. This thing is going to be bad.
Patriots 38, Texans 17