2012-13 Wild Card Playoff Weekend Picks

The old (or new) saying goes that one team always wins a road game during the first round of the NFL playoffs, and I usually pick exactly one team to win a road game. (Or at least one underdog). But I decided to research this. Last year, zero road teams won in the first round (although the Broncos were a home underdog that won). In 2010-11? Three teams. 2009-10, 2008-09, and 2007-08? Two teams EACH YEAR. The year before? ZERO. The two years before that? Three, again, EACH YEAR.

I guess it’s fun to pretend that something is a trend, but it’s kind of more fun to uncover that it’s not.

That makes me more comfortable in possibly picking two road upsets this weekend, although I kind of think one’s just going to be a spread cover and the other’s going to be an outright win. And in fact, I don't even know if I'm comfortable with one of them. Yeah, I'm not. 

Last year, I was 8-3 picking against the spreads. I go into these playoffs with a few macro views, including the belief that either the Seahawks or Packers are going to be playing the Broncos in the Super Bowl, so if gambling were legal, I would have already wagered a bit on an NFC title for Seattle or Green Bay, a Super Bowl crown for Green Bay, and a Super Bowl crown for Denver (the odds, if gambling were legal, would have been too low to make any money on Denver winning the AFC, in my opinion.).

Saturday

Bengals at Texans (Texans favored by 4.5)

I started to buy all the hype that Houston was done because of the team's late-season miniature collapse, but Grantland's Bill Barnwell assures me that it's okay to look at Houston's entire body of work rather than its last few weeks. The key to this game, to me, is that Cincinnati is terrible at protecting their quarterback and J.J. Watt and the Texans are good at hammering the quarterback. That's good enough for me! In fact, after playing this game in Madden while controlling the Texans, I'm going to even add to Houston's score (I originally had 30-17).
Houston 37, Cincinnati 17

Minnesota at Green Bay (Packers favored by 8)

I love what Adrian Peterson has done this year, and I hope he has a big game that keeps it close for a while, but why would anyone with a brain ever bet on Christian Ponder in a road playoff game against Aaron Rodgers? They wouldn't.
Packers 27, Vikings 17

Sunday

Indianapolis at Baltimore (Ravens favored by 7)

People like to say these are the worst two teams in the playoffs, but after I dorkily devised a spreadsheet averaging out certain things, the Ravens fared better (thanks in part to their awesome special teams performance. I think Andrew Luck is the kind of quarterback that can make a team fare much better than it should, and he isn't necessarily in over his head playing his first playoff game, but the Ravens' not-as-scary defense will get to him enough to force some turnovers and that will be enough.
Baltimore 27, Indianapolis 13

Seattle at Washington (Seahawks favored by 3)

Everyone thinks that this is going to be the hardest game of the weekend to figure out, and maybe I'm missing something, but I feel like all the things the Redskins do well on offense are the sorts of things Seattle's defense can stop. Throw in the fact that Washington has an average defense and has to play a Seahawks team that has excelled at both running AND passing lately and I don't think things bode well for Washington.

The Skins do seem to have the best home-field advantage this weekend, especially fortunate against a Seattle team that's unbeatable at home and just okay on the road, but I like Seattle here. If they fall behind early though, I'll be kicking myself for minimizing their home/road splits. And just for that, I'm going to have to pick this as a one-score game because I've picked exactly zero in the rest of these.
Seattle 34, Washington 30