Playoff Picks, Conference Championship Games, 2012-13

So this weekend, we have the biggest road favorite in an NFL semifinal game since at least 1978 (San Francisco), and a team (New England) that throughout the week has been favored by as much as 9.5 (it's down to 7.5) over a rival that they haven't beaten by that many points since Joe Flacco was a redshirt freshman at THE UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH (where he went before transferring to Delaware). I guess I don't see how both road teams win, because that like never ever ever happens (since 1998 when Denver and Green Bay both won on the road). But maybe they will?

Record for Playoffs:        5-3
Record (against spread): 6-2

49'ers at Falcons (49'ers favored by 4.5)

Last week, I was among those fooled by Colin Kaepernick. He was unbelievable. The Falcons, on the other hand, were very lucky that the Seahawks were a West Coast team doing that 1 p.m. East Coast road game thing, because once Seattle got going, it was clear they were the superior team and that Matt Ryan and the Falcons were pressing. This week's game is a matchup between a very physical San Francisco team that happens to conveniently have a lot of speed, and a Falcons team that is really awesome at home and at making big passing plays (although not as good as you think). I'm aware that I should beware the team that looked a little too good last weekend, but I don't see how the 49'ers lose this game. This isn't the crappy 2000-01 No. 1-seeded Giants hosting the Vikings, with everyone thinking that Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss were going to go crazy only to see the Giants murder Minnesota 41-0. The Niners are a complete team, and they're going to go to the Super Bowl. That doesn't mean it's going to be easy. I'm going to do the dumb thing and say they're going to win without covering the spread, only because I feel it's the right thing to do. Let's just say that the Niners get up early but the Falcons hang around, and lose at the end on a stalled Matty Ice drive. A big game is in store for Vernon Davis of San Francisco. If I'm wrong, that wouldn't be surprising. But I'm right.
49'ers 31, Falcons 27

Ravens at Patriots (Patriots favored by 7.5)

First of all, there's absolutely no reason this spread should be 7.5. It makes no sense. The Ravens lost by 3 in this same exact game last year, beat the Pats earlier this season, and have either beaten the Patriots or lost by less than one score every time the teams have played since 2004. I'm not sure how this game would change any of that. Even Kyle Boller almost beat the Patriots during their undefeated 2007 regular season. The question of course isn't about the betting line, everyone in the world knows that it's too high a spread (that's not to say the Pats CAN'T blow them out, it just seems unlikely). So I'm taking the points no matter what. Can I take Joe Flacco to beat Tom Brady and go to a Super Bowl? In New England? You absolutely better bet your worthless life I can do that. Or worthful life, whatever kind of life you have. I'm a bit sniffly that Flacco is about to beat Eli Manning's NFL record by winning his sixth career road playoff game, but whatevs. It's clear that the Ravens are going to the Super Bowl. The Pats don't have it against this Ravens team. I don't know why.

Ravens 34, Patriots 33