Playoff Picks, Conference Title Sunday, 2011

I hope you've all been gambling based on my amazing picks so far this playoff season.

Record last week: 3-1

Record last week (against the spread): 3-1

Record for the playoffs: 5-3

Record for the playoffs (against the spread): 5-3

Packers at Bears, 3 p.m. (Packers favoured by 3.5)

It's not insignificant that the Bears are home. I really think that if they get some early momentum they can win this game. So really, it just becomes a referendum on whether you think Chicago can get going early, and just how far ahead they can get.

I'm taking the other side of that bet. I mean have you SEEN how Aaron Rodgers has been playing quarterback? Sure, this game has "Be aware of the team that looked a little too good last week" undertones, but I don't know. Let me ask again: Have you SEEN how Aaron Rodgers has been playing quarterback?

I'd like to see the stat about how teams that DIDN'T PUNT ONCE in a game fared the next week. I reckon they scored a few more than 10 points in that next game - the number the Pack scored in its Week 17 playoff clinchitator (new word) over the Bears.

The Packers, who by the way are playing pretty good defense too, seem impervious to any kind of adversity right now. Against Atlanta, any time the Falcons needed a stop, Rodgers ALWAYS beat them. Every frickin time. It wouldn'tve exactly been a disaster if they had to punt once or - gulp - twice, but everything was so precision that they never ever ever stopped.

I like Jay Cutler, and I think he's still trudging toward elite status, and obviously he's one game away from accelerating that process. But Jay Cutler, you my friend are no Aaron Rodgers.

Packers 34, Bears 20


Jets at Steelers, 6:30 p.m. (Steelers favoured by 4)

I think this game comes down to one very big thing. A 6-foot-5, 280+ pound thing to be exact. And whether the Jets can knock it over before it releases a football from its hand.

If the rejuvenated Jets' pass rush gets four or more sacks in this game, they will win. The problem, of course, is that sacking Ben Roethlisberger is a difficult thing to do sometimes. It's not that you can't hit him, it's that you can't TACKLE him. He's huge, he waits, he waits, he moves, she bangs, she bangs, then he finds someone open, because I don't know if you know this, but most NFL receivers can get open if you give them 21.6 seconds to run around.

When the Jets DON'T sack Big Ben, they have to obviously limit the big plays. They're going to put Darrelle Revis on Mike Wallace (who's very fast), but don't be suprised if Wallace gets one long touchdown.

On offense, the Jets would be well advised to throw on first down at least half the time, because it's very hard to run on the Steelers, and it's not advantageous to be in third and longs against a team among the league leaders in sacks (regardless of the Jets' propensity to protect Mark Sanchez exceptionally well). If somehow one of these teams generates a running game, I'll be surprised and that team automatically puts itself in much better standing. I don't see that happening. I mean, maybe a bit of running, but don't expect either team to eclipse, say, 117 yards rushing. If one does and the other doesn't, that's PROBABLY your winner.

Sanchez isn't as good as Roethlisberger, of course, but he's ready for this. He's going to have to throw for 250 or more yards and limit himself to one turnover, but I think he can do it. Everyone's treating this as a game where the Jets are these huge underdogs, but they're just as good as the Steelers.

One warning: The Jets better hope this doesn't come down to kickers. Oh, wait, the Steelers' kicker is Shaun Suisham. I'd actually take Nick Folk over him, but they shouldn't tempt fate.

Jets 20, Steelers 16