How fun was THAT? Three great games last weekend, including a pretty remarkable upset by Seattle that makes you wonder just how parity stricken this NFL really is. It's an epidemic. A 7-9 team with one or two quality wins during the season isn't that much worse than an 11-5 defending Super Bowl champion. Believe it. The playoffs aren't necessarily about what you did during the regular season, they're about how you're playing NOW and how you match up with a specific team NOW.
Think about this: Last weekend, the four teams that lost (Including Indianapolis, which looked shaky in its victorious regular season finale over the Titans) all came into the Wild Card round on a bit of a low - the Saints were kind of playing for something in week 17 too and still lost - and all their opponents were coming off multiple wins in a row or at least emotional wins or wins in which they looked pretty good. There's something to be said for that, although I'm not sure how that applies to teams with byes (that rhymes!).
Record For Playoffs: 2-2
Record Against the Spread: 2-2
Think about this: Last weekend, the four teams that lost (Including Indianapolis, which looked shaky in its victorious regular season finale over the Titans) all came into the Wild Card round on a bit of a low - the Saints were kind of playing for something in week 17 too and still lost - and all their opponents were coming off multiple wins in a row or at least emotional wins or wins in which they looked pretty good. There's something to be said for that, although I'm not sure how that applies to teams with byes (that rhymes!).
Record For Playoffs: 2-2
Record Against the Spread: 2-2
Ravens at Steelers, Saturday at 4:30 P.M. (Steelers favoured by 3)
I'm so mad that the spread is EXACTLY three, thus ensuring a tie (which counts as a loss at Gamblers Anonymous). So out of spite, I'm taking the Ravens.
The real reason I'm taking them has something to do with a gut feeling. Conventional wisdom says to go with Big Ben, he'll find a way, blah blah blah.
But I've seen the Steelers a few times this season, and I don't know, color me skeptical. The only reason they won their division was because someone on Baltimore forgot to consider that Troy Polamalu might blitz Joe Flacco from the blindside at an important juncture of the game. Let's just say my gut tells me that's not going to happen again.
I think Flacco is taking the next step today. It'll be close, it'll be decided by 3, and the Ravens will win. Actually, it'll be decided by 4.
Ravens 17, Steelers 13
Packers at Falcons, Saturday at 8 P.M. (Falcons favoured by 2.5)
The real reason I'm taking them has something to do with a gut feeling. Conventional wisdom says to go with Big Ben, he'll find a way, blah blah blah.
But I've seen the Steelers a few times this season, and I don't know, color me skeptical. The only reason they won their division was because someone on Baltimore forgot to consider that Troy Polamalu might blitz Joe Flacco from the blindside at an important juncture of the game. Let's just say my gut tells me that's not going to happen again.
I think Flacco is taking the next step today. It'll be close, it'll be decided by 3, and the Ravens will win. Actually, it'll be decided by 4.
Ravens 17, Steelers 13
Packers at Falcons, Saturday at 8 P.M. (Falcons favoured by 2.5)
All week, I've been all like "Ruh roh. Everyone likes the Packers. That makes me very nervous."
Luckily, I was listening with joy yesterday as Mike Francesa went against the grain and picked the No. 1 seeded, home team over the No. 6 seed that you'd think are the 1967 Green Bay Packers.
That's all I needed. The Packers are better, they're clutcher, they're hot, they've got a phenomenal quarterback, and they're going to the Super Bowl. You can't convince me otherwise. It'll probably be a touchdown game, because these things typically are, but I'm confident on this one.
Packers 27, Falcons 20
Luckily, I was listening with joy yesterday as Mike Francesa went against the grain and picked the No. 1 seeded, home team over the No. 6 seed that you'd think are the 1967 Green Bay Packers.
That's all I needed. The Packers are better, they're clutcher, they're hot, they've got a phenomenal quarterback, and they're going to the Super Bowl. You can't convince me otherwise. It'll probably be a touchdown game, because these things typically are, but I'm confident on this one.
Packers 27, Falcons 20
Seahawks at Bears, Sunday at 1 P.M. (Bears favoured by 10)
The 'Hawks are a cute little story, the 7-9 team that could do your mom or whatever, but I'm going to turn to Francesa for the wisdom here: If you didn't show up at the wedding, don't go to the funeral. In other words, if you didn't pick the Seahawks when nobody in the world thought they'd win, don't pick them the next week when people are starting to believe (a little).
Next week is here, and it's going to be a funeral. I didn't believe in the Bears early in the year (how could I, my own team knocked out like 14 of their quarterbacks on a Sunday night), but I think they're peaking now. That doesn't mean they're incredible, because they aren't. But they're better than Seattle, and they won't take them lightly. Seattle won in Chicago earlier this year.
It's tough to pick the Bears with this high of a spread, but I won't pick the Seahawks unless I convince myself they can win the game outright, and now it's almost 10:30 on Saturday morning and I still haven't been able to do that.
Bears 31, Seahawks 17
Jets at Patriots, Sunday at 4:30 P.M. (Pats favoured by 8.5)
Can the Jets shock the world? I mean, they've beaten the Pats this year, albeit earlier in the season. They're certainly NOT going to lose 45-3 again.
Buuuuut. Tom Brady hasn't thrown an interception since October. The Pats have looked unstoppable even when they're playing for nothing. Their defense has been able to very ably disguise its deficiencies.
Call it another gut feeling (I'll be right on either this one or the Ravens pick, but probably not both), but I think the Jets play their best game of the season tomorrow. I think they play well early, they run well, and they do everything they know they need to do. PLUS, Rex Ryan unveils some crazy defenses that minimize Brady's short passing game and voila, it's close at the end and the Jets somehow pull it out.
Jets 24, Pats 23
The 'Hawks are a cute little story, the 7-9 team that could do your mom or whatever, but I'm going to turn to Francesa for the wisdom here: If you didn't show up at the wedding, don't go to the funeral. In other words, if you didn't pick the Seahawks when nobody in the world thought they'd win, don't pick them the next week when people are starting to believe (a little).
Next week is here, and it's going to be a funeral. I didn't believe in the Bears early in the year (how could I, my own team knocked out like 14 of their quarterbacks on a Sunday night), but I think they're peaking now. That doesn't mean they're incredible, because they aren't. But they're better than Seattle, and they won't take them lightly. Seattle won in Chicago earlier this year.
It's tough to pick the Bears with this high of a spread, but I won't pick the Seahawks unless I convince myself they can win the game outright, and now it's almost 10:30 on Saturday morning and I still haven't been able to do that.
Bears 31, Seahawks 17
Jets at Patriots, Sunday at 4:30 P.M. (Pats favoured by 8.5)
Can the Jets shock the world? I mean, they've beaten the Pats this year, albeit earlier in the season. They're certainly NOT going to lose 45-3 again.
Buuuuut. Tom Brady hasn't thrown an interception since October. The Pats have looked unstoppable even when they're playing for nothing. Their defense has been able to very ably disguise its deficiencies.
Call it another gut feeling (I'll be right on either this one or the Ravens pick, but probably not both), but I think the Jets play their best game of the season tomorrow. I think they play well early, they run well, and they do everything they know they need to do. PLUS, Rex Ryan unveils some crazy defenses that minimize Brady's short passing game and voila, it's close at the end and the Jets somehow pull it out.
Jets 24, Pats 23
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