Search This Blog

Monday, May 30, 2005

Myth: Catchers break down offensively after the All-Star break.
I’ve been a believer of this one for a long time, but I decided to challenge it. So I took the first- and second-half 2004 statistics of some of the top offensive catchers in baseball, and found that there is no significant difference between regular position players and catchers when it comes to late- and early-year batting prowess. All that squatting does not make them wear down in September – at least not significantly. (Please note that some guys – like Ivan Rodriguez in 2004 – have unconscious first halves and cannot in their right mind duplicate their first-half performance. But still, Pudge stayed respectable after the break.) And remember, players get less at-bats after the All-Star Game, since there are less games:

Jorge Posada: 1st half: .275, 11 HR, 40 RBI. 2nd half: .268, 10, 41.

Jason Varitek: 1st half: .275, 10, 34. 2nd half: .323, 8, 39.

Ivan Rodriguez: 1st half: .369, 12, 59. 2nd half: .284, 7, 27.

Johnny Estrada: 1st half: .332, 4, 47. 2nd half: .290, 5, 29.

Javy Lopez: 1st half: .321, 12, 42. 2nd half: .309, 11, 44.

Victor Martinez: 1st half: .290, 12, 63. 2nd half: .274, 11, 45.

My girlfriend Beth Carney, associate editor for the medical journal Current Psychiatry, pointed out that I should check out some serviceable-but-not-superstar catchers to see if my demolition of this theory is deserved: Here goes…

Michael Barrett: 1st half: .291, 10, 43. 2nd half: .282, 6, 22.

Toby Hall: 1st half: .287, 5, 34. 2nd half: .221, 3, 26.

Ramon Hernandez: 1st half: .266, 7, 25. 2nd half: .285, 11, 38.

A.J. Pierzynski: 1st half: .307, 7, 45. 2nd half: .232, 4, 32.

Okay, so let me get back to my point. Just like some other position players get hotter or colder in the second half, so do catchers. Just because they’re bending down all the time, does not automatically equal a bad second half. Maybe for Pierzynski and Hall, the squatting takes its toll. But tell that to Hernandez or Lopez. Catchers are just as likely to keep up at least some of their good hitting in the second half as first basemen and outfielders. I hope this proves it.

No comments: