Goodbye Tom Brady and Drew Brees, hello Ryan Tannehill and Kirk Cousins. Those are words I never expected to type, as my predictions last week indicated. Now we’re on to the Divisional Round, where conventional wisdom says all four home favorites most likely won’t go undefeated against the spread. I expect that to continue. The league has too much parity for four home covers. The spreads are from the Bovada Sportsbook at around 12:30 p.m.
LAST WEEK
Record: 2-2
Against the spread: 1-2-1
SATURDAY
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49’ers, 4:35 p.m. (Spread: Niners favored by 7)
The most important question: Will Jimmy Garoppolo mess this up?
Look, the Vikings were impressive last week in ousting the Saints. They came in with a good gameplan, made the big play in overtime and shocked a lot of people. In retrospect, it shouldn’tve been that shocking. The Vikings are a good team, with very few weaknesses. They aren’t the best in the league at many things, but they’re good at most things.
They deserve to be in this game, but they’re also deserved underdogs. The 49’ers are the better team, and their defense - historically great in the first half of the season and decidedly worse but still good in the second - is much healthier than it’s been recently. They should win the game.
My lone concern is Jimmy G. He throws some fabulously bad interceptions, and the one person he trusts the most, George Kittle, plays the one position that Minnesota defends well. In his first playoff start, Garoppolo is going to make mistakes. And that’s fine. The question is whether it will cost the Niners the game. My gut is that it won’t, but seven points is too high. I think that of the four home favorites this weekend, San Francisco will be the one that comes out most sluggish. The game will be close, but the Niners will pull it out in the end. The ground game with Raheem Mostert will be the key.
Pick: Vikings +7, Score: 49’ers 23, Vikings 17
My answers here are no, the Ravens won’t be rusty and yes, the Titans will look like they’re happy to be here. The Ravens have that special (insert terrible sports cliche here) while the Titans won their own personal Super Bowl last week when they won in New England. Tannehill mania wasn’t too maniacal last week, when the Titans completed a total of NINE passes. This is where it ends, and I have a feeling it good get ugly.
They deserve to be in this game, but they’re also deserved underdogs. The 49’ers are the better team, and their defense - historically great in the first half of the season and decidedly worse but still good in the second - is much healthier than it’s been recently. They should win the game.
My lone concern is Jimmy G. He throws some fabulously bad interceptions, and the one person he trusts the most, George Kittle, plays the one position that Minnesota defends well. In his first playoff start, Garoppolo is going to make mistakes. And that’s fine. The question is whether it will cost the Niners the game. My gut is that it won’t, but seven points is too high. I think that of the four home favorites this weekend, San Francisco will be the one that comes out most sluggish. The game will be close, but the Niners will pull it out in the end. The ground game with Raheem Mostert will be the key.
Pick: Vikings +7, Score: 49’ers 23, Vikings 17
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens, 8:15 p.m. (Spread: Ravens favored by 10)
The most important question(s): Will the Ravens look rusty and are the Titans just happy to be here?
My answers here are no, the Ravens won’t be rusty and yes, the Titans will look like they’re happy to be here. The Ravens have that special (insert terrible sports cliche here) while the Titans won their own personal Super Bowl last week when they won in New England. Tannehill mania wasn’t too maniacal last week, when the Titans completed a total of NINE passes. This is where it ends, and I have a feeling it good get ugly.
Pick: Ravens +10, Score: Ravens 30, Titans 10
Am I missing something? No. The Chiefs are much more complete than they were when these teams played earlier this year, something something something Andy Reid after a bye week.
SUNDAY
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs, 3:05 p.m. (Spread: Chiefs favored by 9.5)
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs, 3:05 p.m. (Spread: Chiefs favored by 9.5)
The most important question: Why is the spread only 9.5?
Am I missing something? No. The Chiefs are much more complete than they were when these teams played earlier this year, something something something Andy Reid after a bye week.
Pick: Chiefs 37, Texans 14
Okay, so they’re both good, they’re just not as good as their records. The Seahawks won 11 games but had the point differential of a 9ish win team, while the Packers won 13 (!!) and had the look of a team that should’ve won 10 or 11.
The funny thing is, they’re both here, and they’re both playing for a shot at playing for a shot at the Super Bowl, and they both have a chance of winning both this week AND next week in San Francisco (or home to Minnesota). So what’s going to happen?
A shootout, that’s what’s going to happen. A good ol’ fashioned, who has the ball last shootout. The Seahawks can’t run the ball in their current iteration, and while run defense is the Packers’ biggest weakness, I’m betting this will be the game Pete Carroll starts to understand that taking the ball out of Russell Wilson’s hands is about the worst thing he can do as a coach. Why it’s taken him this long to figure that out, I’ll never know.
So who wins the shootout? I say by the looks of how Aaron Rodgers and Wilson played this year, I’m giving the edge to the road team. Wilson makes gigantic plays at the end, and Seattle gets their third matchup against the Niners. This should be a classic.
Pick: Seahawks +4, Score: Seattle 34, Packers 31
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers, 6:40 p.m. (Spread: Packers favored by 4)
The most important question: Are either of these teams actually good?
The funny thing is, they’re both here, and they’re both playing for a shot at playing for a shot at the Super Bowl, and they both have a chance of winning both this week AND next week in San Francisco (or home to Minnesota). So what’s going to happen?
A shootout, that’s what’s going to happen. A good ol’ fashioned, who has the ball last shootout. The Seahawks can’t run the ball in their current iteration, and while run defense is the Packers’ biggest weakness, I’m betting this will be the game Pete Carroll starts to understand that taking the ball out of Russell Wilson’s hands is about the worst thing he can do as a coach. Why it’s taken him this long to figure that out, I’ll never know.
So who wins the shootout? I say by the looks of how Aaron Rodgers and Wilson played this year, I’m giving the edge to the road team. Wilson makes gigantic plays at the end, and Seattle gets their third matchup against the Niners. This should be a classic.
Pick: Seahawks +4, Score: Seattle 34, Packers 31
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