Playoff Picks, Divisional Round 2018

Last week I was wrong on most of the games. Part of it I'd do again, but part of it was me overlooking some things. The Falcons experience over the Rams, which I talked about, ended up meaning more than I thought. Cam Newton was peak Cam Newton and thus able to cover the spread against the Saints. Andy Reid gonna Andy Reid. The only thing I truly had 100% confidence in was the only thing I was right about, and that's Blake Bortles as a more-than-a-touchdown favorite in a postseason game is not something that any gambler should ever expose himself/herself to financially.

For this week, we have two big favorites in Pittsburgh and New England, a Falcons team that's an unprecedented road favorite in Philadelphia because of Carson Wentz's injury, and a matchup between what appear to be the two best teams in football right now. I want to look at these games from the underdogs' perspective. What's the narrative? What does _______ have to do to win this game? What are the chances they actually do it? As always, the spreads are from VegasInsider.com's average of all the top Vegas sportsbooks.

Record last week: 1-3
Against the spread: 1-3

Saturday

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:35 p.m. (Spread: Falcons favored by 3) 
There are two things to be super wary about in this game: 1) The Falcons team that looked a little too good and made it look a little too easy last week, and 2) the narrative that Nick Foles is the worst quarterback to ever play the game.

I'm going to ignore both those things for a second. The Eagles are definitely not as good a team without Carson Wentz, but they have a very good defense. People seem to forget that. They've been giving up a few more big plays through the air lately, but for the season as a whole, they were third best in the league at surrendering explosive pass plays. (I get those stats from sharpfootballstats.com, which is an unbelievable site). As easy as it is to just think the Falcons are back in Super Bowl form after last week's win over the Rams, I'd rather take the bigger body of work: They're good, but they aren't as efficient as they were last year with Kyle Shanahan as their offensive coordinator. There's something missing.

Back to Foles: He looked awful at the end of the season, but he's been wildly inconsistent his entire career. He's something in between the competent, almost good quarterback that barely beat the Giants late in the season, and the Blake Bortles-level disaster that held on against the Raiders. The thing the Eagles did best during the season with Wentz - convert third-and-long plays at an unconscionable rate - is gone forever, at least until the 2018 season. 

So what's the narrative for the Eagles to pull off the "upset?" It's actually fairly easy. Foles is okay, we learn the Eagles used the bye week to sharpen the running plays in their gameplan, and they stay out of those third and longs that they just won't be able to convert with Foles under center. Their defense handles the Falcons' running game, they use a raucous crowd and strong pass rush to their advantage, and win a close contest to move within a game of the Super Bowl.  

The Falcons can obviously win this game, but it's unfair that they're favored. The Eagles are probably only an average offense with Foles as their quarterback, but despite their recent improvements, the Falcons are only average on defense themselves. So the Eagles have the worse quarterback, but they're mostly even on offense, and have a slight advantage when the Falcons have the ball. Oh. And they're playing at home. That's enough for me. Just enough. Pick: Eagles +3, Score: Eagles 22, Falcons 20

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots, 8:15 p.m. (Spread: Pats favored by 13.5) 
There's a very clear narrative for the Titans to win this game. I can tell that story pretty well, too. I actually used to write as a journalist for a living. The Titans, who run the ball better than all but seven NFL teams according to footballoutsiders.com, go up to Foxboro and control the ball and the clock, score touchdowns instead of field goals against a good Pats' red zone defense, prove correct the minimal research that older quarterbacks' arms get weaker as the season goes along, even if that older quarterback is Tom Brady, get pressure on TB12 up the middle, aaaaaaand somehow get a break or two and/or don't leave any time on the clock for Brady to win the game at the end. 

Whew. 

Shit. 

That's a lot of stuff. 

Is it going to happen? It might. But I don't trust the Titans' defense to stop the Pats' offense, and that's really what this comes down to. New England's in the top 3 of all major offensive categories, and the only thing the Titans can do is stop the run. That will NOT be enough. When one team needs a zillion things to happen to win and the other team has eight or nine paths to victory, and that team is coached by Bill Belichick and quarterbacked by Tom Brady, don't be stupid. That's what my mama taught me.  Pick: Pats -13.5, Score: Pats 37, Titans 13

Sunday

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1:05 p.m. (Spread: Steelers favored by 7)
Let's forget about that time earlier this season where Big Ben threw five interceptions in a blowout home loss to the Jags and suggested he might not "have it" anymore. This isn't going to be that, or anything close. Yes Leonard Fournette rushed for 181 yards in that game, but besides the one looooooong run that sealed the victory, he was only successful on 26% of his other runs. That's really bad. Beware the easy narrative. Don't think lazily. Use your head.

Plus, Big Ben threw for more total yardage to Jacksonville defenders than Blake Bortles did to Jags' offensive players. They just were able to hide Bortles since, you know, they were up by three touchdowns. But he didn't have anything to do with them winning the game.

So if I'm forgetting about that game, do I see any scenario where Bortles and the Jags could win? Well, yeah! No. 1, he can't throw for fewer yards than he runs for, like he did last week, and win the game. He has to go deep early, and it has to work. The Steelers are vulnerable to the big pass recently, coming in at fourth-worst in the league at surrendering explosive pass plays since Week 12 according to sharpfootballstats.com. Jacksonville's defense is great, but the Jags are not going to win this game with only defense. They need Bortles to throw for, say, 225 yards to win this game. Okay, maybe 190. They're also going to have to play even better on defense this week than they did in surrendering three points to the Bills last week, because the Steelers' weapons - even if Antonio Brown isn't 100% coming off the calf injury - are just a tad more dangerous than Buffalo's.

Can this stuff happen? I guess. But why would you bet on it? First of all, Bortles isn't going to perform well in sub-20 degree temperatures. Secondly, the one Jags' weakness on defense is they're bad against the run (No. 26 in the league). Pittsburgh is going to come out wanting to get Le'veon Bell involved on the ground, and they're going to get it done. They're probably going to get ahead and then Bortles is going to be forced to throw, and you know how that ends.

Unless of course, he hits that big throw early. Then maybe they can win. Nah, probably not. Pick: Steelers -7, Score: Steelers 27, Jaguars 7

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings, 4:40 p.m. (Spread: Vikings favored by 5) 
Rarely do we get a toss-up game in the divisional round in which so many people think the winner might go the Super Bowl. And while I don't understand why the betting public has pushed the spread for this game up to a very NON toss-up looking 5 points after it opened at 3.5, I do think whoever wins this game is more likely to go the Super Bowl than the Eagles or Falcons.

How even is this game? According to footballoutsiders.com, every single time one of these offensive units are on the field, both teams will have units that are top 10 in the major statistical offensive and defensive categories except for when Minnesota's middle-of-the-pack rushing attack runs it against the Saints' bottom-third run defense. That's it! Everything else is elite on elite. 

Minnesota's defense is slightly better than New Orleans', although the Vikings don't get a lot of pressure on the quarterback. The Vikings also don't bring six or more pass rushers too often to try and generate more pressure, and don't expec them to in this game, either. When Drew Brees faced six or more pass rushers, the Saints' offense was the second most productive in the league in terms of yards per play.

Last week, the Panthers limited the new-look Saints' rushing attack, but got burned by Brees the way he's been burning teams for years. So now we know that New Orleans, just like in years past, doesn't need to rush the ball effectively to win. The Minnesota defense, as good as it is, won't totally shut down Brees and the Saints, which means they're going to need at least a little from the Cinderella story of the season, Case Keenum.

I like Keenum. I think he's confident, and competent. I don't think he's one of the three best quarterbacks in the league, as the statistics currently suggest, but you could do a lot worse than him as your quarterback. But in this otherwise even matchup, I've been watching football for far too long to be confident putting my faith in Case Keenum over Drew Brees. When all the numbers suggest the game is a toss-up, why would I ever do that? Anything can happen, up to and including a Vikings' 24-10 win in which they throttle the Saints' offense and force a few turnovers. But I'd be irresponsible to count on that, and I won't.

Plus, the Vikings are going to be playing the Super Bowl in their own building? That just doesn't seem possible, right? Saints+5, Score: Saints 27, Vikings 20