Playoff Picks, 2018 Wild Card Weekend

It’s been a wacky year in the NFL, but hey, you knew that already. The postseason might end up being even wackier. Eight of the teams in the playoffs (Philadelphia, Minnesota, the Rams, New Orleans, Carolina, Buffalo, Jacksonville and Tennessee) didn’t make it last year. The two top seeds in the NFC don’t have their regular quarterback, and last year’s NFC champion played weirdly all year but you still kind of want to believe in them. As always, I pick these games with both macro and micro thoughts in mind. The spreads are a consensus average compiled by VegasInsider.com.

Record for the playoffs last year: 7-4
Against the spread: 5-6

Saturday

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs, 4:30 p.m. (Spread: Chiefs favored by 8.5) It’s easy to look at this game and think about how the Titans want to slow the game down and run run run on the Chiefs’ worst in the league run defense (according to football outsiders.com). But I’m more interested in the fact that neither of these defenses really performed that well in any situation. Most Titans games end up pretty ugly but I actually think this game will be surprisingly high scoring. I also think the Chiefs have overcome their early hiccups and should pull away at the end, and cover the spread in the process. Tennessee will have trouble covering KC’s secondary receivers, and most notably, the star tight end Travis Kelce. Pick: Chiefs -8.5, Score: Chiefs 34, Titans 24

Atlanta Falcons at L.A. Rams, 8:30 p.m. (Spread: Rams favored by 6) I’m a believer in numbers, but I also understand these are human beings playing tackle football games. The Rams, who’ve played well all year, rested their stars last week and so they’re basically coming off a bye week. That rust worries me, especially against an experienced Falcons team. Still, the Rams performed well after long layoffs during the regular season, and there’s a smart gambling adage I learned about this year that west coast teams usually outperform the point spread during night games, simply because of their body clocks. Plus, I’ve been waiting for the Falcons to be peak Falcons all season, and I’m still waiting. Why would it start now? The Falcons should move the ball but they won’t do a good enough job stopping the Rams. One caveat: if it comes down to a kick, the Falcons are going to win. I just don’t think it will... Pick: Rams -6, Score: Rams 27, Falcons 20

Sunday

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. (Spread: Jags favored by 8.5) 
I could analyze the hell out of this game all I want, but it really comes down to one thing. I will never ever take Blake Bortles as an 8.5 favorite in the playoffs. That doesn’t mean the Jags aren’t going to win. Hell, it doesn’t even mean they can’t win 30-7. It just means I can’t in good conscience enjoy my day knowing that I backed Blake Bortles as an 8.5-point playoff favorite. As I usually do, I’m loathe to pick an underdog to cover the spread without winning outright, so I guess I have to pick the Bills to win. The glass slipper fits for one more week. Pick: Bills +8.5, Score: Bills 19, Jaguars 17

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints, 4:30 p.m. (Spread: Saints favored by 7) 
Does the old adage that it’s tough to beat a team three times in one season make any sense? Sure it does...when those games are super close. But the Saints beat the Panthers twice this year and neither game was close (Carolina scored a backdoor touchdown at the end of the second game to make it seem close, but it wasn’t.) I don’t think New Orleans will run over the Panthers the whole game, but I do think they’ll get big plays in the passing game out of both Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas and benefit from a few big mistakes by Cam Newton. That’ll be enough for a team that I’ve said for weeks is a good bet to go to the Super Bowl. Pick: Saints-7, Score: Saints 31, Panthers 20