I printed out a lot of stats from footballoutsiders.com about the best rush offenses and rush defenses and all those fun things, and obviously we have a weird weekend where the road teams could all be considered favorites, and I just want to simplify it all.
Gambling, especially on playoff football, is about not, after making the bet, saying to yourself "why am I financially exposed to this?" This can be many things, whether it's Andy Reid as a big favorite in a game against a good clock manager, a rookie quarterback on the road, Charlie Whitehurst anywhere. You know it when you see it.
The road quarterbacks this weekend have won 24 postseason games, while the home ones have won zero. In some cases, these games come down to things like, would you bet on AJ McCarron against Ben Roethlisberger? Would you bet on Kirk Cousins against Aaron Rodgers? Teddy Bridgewater against Russell Wilson? Alex Smith against whomever is playing for Houst..you get it. That's not to say that quarterback play is everything. You need to look at macro factors too, such as the fact that home teams never ever get swept on Wild Card weekend. Let's do this. The spreads are Saturday morning lines from sportsbook.com, which is now shadily called sportsbook.ag, because, offshore sportsbooks.
Record last year: 9-2
Against the spread: 7-4
Saturday
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (Chiefs by 3.5), 4:35 p.m.
Here's a game that's less about the quarterbacks, and more about two things: Will J.J. Watt and Houston's awesome pass rush disrupt everything Alex Smith and the shaky Chiefs' pass protection want to do? And will Houston's DeAndre Hopkins get free in the Kansas City secondary, which is very suspect at covering No. 1 wide receivers. It's also worth noting that if a big special teams play happens in this game, it'll probably be the Chiefs that make it. Still, I don't think that's enough. I say Hopkins goes crazy with a 150-yard day, Watt gets two sacks, and the Texans either cover or win an ugly one. Texans 16, Chiefs 13
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (Steelers by 3), 8:15 p.m.
I don't care about the Steelers' defense and all its worries this week. It's not that bad when it's getting turnovers, and this could be a game it gets some with McCarron under center for the Bengals. A.J. Green could make some plays for the Bengals on offense, but my issue here is I won't be able to sleep if I have money on A.J. McCarron in this game against a quarterback with two rings. Sorry! Steelers 30, Bengals 20.
Sunday
Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (Seahawks by 5), 1:05 p.m.
We have very recent video evidence of Seattle going into Minnesota and whoopin' 'em up real good, and I just don't see how this will be different. People overestimate experience sometimes, but not here. Russell Wilson's playing great and you may remember him from such televised games as THE LAST TWO SUPER BOWLS. Marshawn Lynch is out and that matters, but Seattle's running game is about a lot more than one guy. If you need some numerical support, Seattle is No. 2 in passing offense and No. 4 in rushing offense according to football outsiders, and the Vikings are pretty much in the middle of the pack in everything but pass defense. The two things that could create an upset are Minnesota exposing Seattle's inability to cover a tight end and maybe making a play against the Seahawks' shaky special teams unit, but you can't make a decision based on those improbabilities. Seahawks 27, Vikings 13.
Green Bay Packers at Washington (Washington by 1), 4:40 p.m.
If this game was only about Kirk Cousins vs. Aaron Rodgers, it'd be very easy to pick. But I've seen the film: Packers receivers aren't getting open this year, and their run game is inconsistent, and their defense is very meh. Washington's got a nice pass rush, and the Packers have trouble protecting Rodgers. Still, where I'm going to go here is the Washington secondary. It's near the bottom of the league at covering both No. 1 AND No. 2 receivers, which means the main weakness of the Packers' offense this year - receivers getting free - may become a strength in this game. If Washington's Ryan Kerrigan-led pass rush can't get home before Rodgers finds someone, you're going to see some semblance of the Packers you thought you'd see all year. When Washington has the ball, the Packers' weak run defense won't be tested because Washington can't run! Cousins is going to throw three picks (okay, maybe two) and the clock's striking 12 for his little Jesus-loving Cinderella story. Packers 26, Washington 19
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