So I guess all four road teams CAN win on Wild Card weekend. I made one tactical error, which was to undervalue Alex Smith and overvalue the platter of poo that is Brian Hoyer. He's not the kind of quarterback you can bet on in the playoffs, and I knew it the moment that game started. I'm disappointed in myself. But that stuff's all like, soooo last week. Now the legitimately eight best teams in pro football are still around, and I expect things to go truer to form. The spreads I'm using are from to sportsbook.ag at 9:30 a.m. on Saturday.
Record last week: 3-1
Against the spread: 1-3
Saturday
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (Spread: Pats by 5), 4:35 p.m.
You're not going to believe this, but pretty much all the stats favor the Chiefs in this game. The Pats' biggest offensive advantage is they're fourth in the league in passing offense according to the advanced stats from footballoutsiders.com, but guess what, the Chiefs are No. 5 at defending the pass! New England's biggest edge is its great kickoff coverage, which could come in handy against a Chiefs team that returned one for a touchdown last week. In my head, Kansas City was basically a homeless man's version of last year's San Diego Chargers, a team that always gets six yards on third and five to keep drives alive. That's not the case. The Chiefs aren't particularly good at converting third downs, but they get a lot of yards on first down. That keeps the game manageable for them, because YOU WOULD THINK this team isn't particularly explosive. But they're No. 6 in the league in percentage of plays that are "big," plays of 10+ rushing yards or 25+ passing yards. The Pats are in the middle of the pack in that category. Kansas City's also very good in the red zone, something the Pats are meh at stopping. I don't put much credence into red zone stats, it's too small a sample size. Still, right now, especially with New England's injuries, everything points to the Chiefs. I think the game will be close, and the Chiefs will cover the five-point spread, but I don't want you people calling me on the phone tomorrow saying "Did you really bet on Alex Smith and Andy Reid to win a road playoff game against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick?" No, caller. No I didn't. Pats 27, Chiefs 24
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (Spread: Cardinals by 7.5), 8:15 p.m.
You know by now what the Cardinals did the Packers in week 16. They annihilated them by 38-8. Teams that get blown out that play their abuser a second time within six weeks win about half the time in the NFL, so let's throw out (mostly) the other game. The only thing I'll say about it is Green Bay turned the ball over four times that night, with Arizona recovering a total of four of the game's seven fumbles. That's a little random, and may not happen again. What SHOULD happen in this game is Arizona, a much better team, will blanket the Packers receivers in a way Washington couldn't last week, and when Green Bay turns to the run, it won't be able to get yardage. Which is a problem, because if you can't pass and you can't run, it's tough to win football games. Arizona, on the other hand, won't be stopped nearly as often. The Cards should be able to exploit the Packers' weakness of covering secondary receivers, which in this case means you should expect big games from John Brown and/or Michael Floyd. Arizona's got too much talent and too much firepower to lose this game, you would think. Having Aaron Rodgers means the Packers have at least some some semblance of a chance, but I'm not betting on it. Cardinals 31, Packers 17.
Sunday
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (Spread: Panthers by 2.5), 1:05 p.m.
Seattle escaped Minnesota with a very lucky win last weekend, but let's throw that game out. The weather completely changed that entire experience, and Seattle absolutely can play with Carolina. We've seen it the past three times they played, Seahawks wins of 12-7 and 13-9 and Carolina's win earlier this year in Seattle, 27-23. These teams are so evenly matched, their quarterbacks are playing great, and this has a chance to be a classic. The only clear advantages for either team all favor Seattle: The Seahawks are excellent running back punts and kickoffs, and the Panthers are very bad at covering tight ends. With such a narrow margin of error, I'm going to say one or two of those factors will be the difference, and Russell Wilson will find himself on the cusp of a third Super Bowl appearance in three years. Seahawks 19, Panthers 16. (CORRECTION: Seattle is really bad at covering tight ends. This doesn't change my pick.)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (Spread: Denver by 9), 4:40 p.m.
First of all, I've learned to not trust Ben Roethlisberger when he talks about injuries. He's lied about broken ribs, separated shoulders, broken toes, and possible surgery for torn thumb ligaments, so while I'm sure he's a little hurt, I'm not buying that he has torn ligaments in his shoulder. He's going to be able to throw the ball tomorrow. Not having Antonio Brown, however, could be the big problem. Big Ben has weapons like Marcus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant, but none of those weapons are anywhere near as good as Brown. Throw in the fact that Denver is solid in every aspect of defense, and you can already see Pittsburgh's point total being limited. The real wild card in this game though is whether Peyton Manning is going to be the Peyton Manning we saw earlier this year that basically threw two interceptions for every touchdown, or if he'll be closer to old Peyton. My vote is for something in between, although I'm a bit worried that Denver won't be able to run the ball as effectively as it would like against the Steelers. But with the way Denver can smother opposing offenses I'm giving them a slight edge. Nine points is way too high, though. Broncos 24, Steelers 16
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