2013-14 NFL Divisional Playoff Picks

My macro feelings on these games are that either the Colts or Chargers - but not both - are getting blown out this weekend, that the Seahawks aren't invincible like they once were and that one offensive player is going to decide the 49'ers/Panthers defensive struggle.

Record for playoffs (2-2)
*Record against the spread (2-2)

*the spread is all that matters

Saturday

Saints at Seahawks (-9), 4:40 p.m.

Everyone knows the 'Hawks slammed New Orleans the first time these teams met, but anyone who actually watched the game knows the Saints started fine and then had some unfortunate things happen and all of a sudden they were down big and buried. Relatedly, Russell Wilson played insanely well. Here's my issue with that happening again: Well, it's actually three issues: New Orleans got over its media-created psychological road playoff hurdle last week in Philadelphia, Seattle has now lost a game at home, and the Saints' defensive line has huge advantage over Seattle's pass protection. That makes nine points too high of a spread for me. Can the Saints actually win the game outright? Of course, this is an NFL where one-score games are practically a certainty. WILL the Saints win the game outright in the toughest place to play in the NFL? Well, that's a different thing entirely. Seahawks 27, Saints 20.

Colts at Patriots (-7), 8:20 p.m.

Andrew Luck vs. Tom Brady seems like a sexy matchup, but I can't get over the fact that many of the Colts' comeback victories in the nascent Luck era have been followed with things like 38-8 losses. Plus, I've had it pounded into my head that Bill Belichick is going to take away whatever the opponent does best (in this case, throw the ball deep and in open spaces to T.Y. Hilton). It's not a cliche that Belichick is good at that. Earlier this year, he basically allowed the Broncos to run all over his team, because he didn't want Peyton Manning to tear up his secondary. It worked. That's not to say that the Pats are wonderful at taking away a No. 1 wide receiver. They were just average in that category according to Football Outsiders, which tracks this stuff. I don't have a feel for this game, but I think another week of rest for Pats' cornerback Aqib Talib should sure up the Pats' secondary enough to force Luck into some mistakes - he makes them you know - and this time, they're not going to recover. The Pats have been doing it all year on offense, and I don't really know how, but I don't see them stopping just yet. Patriots 42, Colts 13.

Sunday

49'ers at Panthers (+1.5), 1:05 p.m.

It's unfair to Carolina that Vegas still doesn't respect the Panthers enough to make them a home favorite in the playoffs. Well, I shouldn't say that. Vegas HAD them favored and the public bet them down enough to make the Niners the favorite. It seems unlikely that this game is going to be MUCH different from the 10-9 defensive battle that the Panthers won in San Francisco earlier this year. The over/under is 41.5, which is extraordinarily low for an NFL playoff game. I think this game is going to come down to Michael Crabtree. As great as the Panthers' defense is, they have issues covering No. 1 wide receivers (in fact, they're slightly worse than the injury-ravaged Patriots in that category). Crabtree didn't play in the first game, and now that he's back and healthy, I think he's going to make the difference. I'm not saying he's just going to make one key catch. I think he's going to catch nine balls for 175 yards and one of them is going to be a go-ahead touchdown. If he doesn't go off in this game, the Panthers will win. So there's your referendum. I'm in the Crabtree camp. 49'ers 24, Panthers 20.

Chargers at Broncos (-8.5), 4:45 p.m.

If you don't think the Chargers can win this game, you really don't know football. But I guess that's why you're reading! Not only did San Diego beat Denver IN Denver, holding the Broncos to under 300 TOTAL yards in the process, but they played them tight the other time the teams played too. Some teams just match up well with others. What makes the Chargers such a tough matchup for Denver is that the Broncos have a tough time getting off the field on third down (worst in the NFL at 3rd down and 4th down pass defense and fourth-worst on 3rd down and 4th down overall), and the Chargers EXCEL at converting those third downs. In an era where time of possession means very little in the quick-strike, pass-happy NFL, the Chargers make possession an important thing again. It's especially important when they're facing the most prolific offense in NFL history. 

The Chargers don't make a ton of big plays (they had the second fewest 20+ yard plays in the league this year, while the Broncos had the most), but they're the best in the league at converting 3rd-and-long, and second best in converting all 3rd downs. If the Broncos can minimize the third down success, they can get the ball back to Peyton Manning and he can throw the ball around to whomever he wants. The Chargers don't have a very good defense, even though it's improved in recent weeks and is doing a better job getting to the quarterback. Of course, getting to a quarterback and getting to Peyton Manning are entirely different things: He gets the ball out quicker than anyone, and doesn't take many sacks. So what's going to happen? I'd be foolish to say that a Broncos' blowout is impossible. All they have to do is have SOME success on 3rd down defense and all of a sudden they get two or three more possessions and 14 to 17 more points. So it CAN happen. But the Chargers are the team that's peaking right now, and I think it's going to be close. They're AT LEAST covering this spread. Is it a Ravens' situation? Are the Chargers going to win outright? I'm going to say no. Denver's going to have one extra trick up its sleeve, most likely in that play-calling wristband of its legendary quarterback. Broncos 34, Chargers 27.