Super Bowl XLVII Pick

I can't get out of my head the simple fact that no matter how much these two teams have changed since Baltimore's low-scoring win over the Niners last year, the game plans and the coaches could very well be similar. Colin Kaepernick might be five times more dangerous than Alex Smith at quarterback, the Ravens might be a year more geriatric on defense and have an offensive coordinator who embraces Joe Flacco's deep-passing ability, but this is still Jim Harbaugh vs. John Harbaugh. These guys knowing each other so well, because, you know, they grew up sleeping in the same room learning their principles from the same father, means everything in this game.

I think that both guys are going to guard against the possibility of overthinking, overstrategizing, overcomplicating, against the man that knows the other best. So what I actually think we're going to get is two moderately vanilla game plans centered around execution, not chicanery. That idea, if I'm right, should point me to a San Francisco win, since they're technically the more talented team: They have the best offensive line in football, the best front-seven defense in football, the more dynamic play-to-play offense with the most innovative run schemes in football, and the best head coach in football.

But this is the Super Bowl, where 18-0 teams lose to 13-6 teams  not because incredibly crazy and random things happen, but because the NFL is no longer a league where one or two teams dominate throughout the season and entire playoffs. It's a league where the best team usually wins it all, but doesn't really show it's the best team until the last few weeks. It's weird, but it's life now. Deal with it.

Record for playoffs:  7-3
Record (vs. spread): 8-2

Ravens vs. 49'ers (49'ers favored by 4)

I've ruled out a San Francisco blowout, it's just not going to happen. The Ravens rarely get blown out (once in Houston this year when the Texans were playing great and their since-avenged blowout loss to the Broncos) and the Niners are unlikely to force the turnovers against the Ravens necessary to crush them.

So who's going to win? A forensic examination of the rosters and the recent histories would definitely say the Niners, but the game isn't going to be decided by science. As impressive as Kaepernick and the Niners have been, the Ravens have played error-freeish football and protected their quarterback, while sprinkling in big plays that make them seem like they're the "destiny" team. The key to this game, to me, is that the Niners haven't been crushing quarterbacks lately, and the Ravens have been protecting theirs. That gives Flacco more time to make big plays, and more importantly to not be harried into big mistakes.

Add that to the fact that John Harbaugh is probably going to do some smart, innovative defensive things that screw up Kaepernick and I think he'll be the one to make the big mistake if it happens.

I feel alone in this, but I'm not a believer this is going to be a shootout. I think that either team can win this game if it gets into the 30s, but I don't even believe it's going to get into the 20s. The Ravens are going to win with a late field goal by Justin Tucker in a game where a lot of drives stall in the red zone. Joe Flacco can call himself elite, starting in about 10 hours.

Ravens 19, 49'ers 16