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Monday, December 25, 2006

The Giants Control Their Destiny!! (Well, Practically)
Still? you ask. Yep, that's right. The New York Giants, the once 6-2 but now 7-8 bumbly, fumbly, blustery, cold New York Football Giants, lose in every way on the football field, but win in every way on the NFC tiebreaker flow chart. Let me make this really simple for you. Let's say the Giants win at Washington on New Year's Eve Eve (Dec. 30). Let's just say that for a second, even though it totally sounds crazy that could ever possibly happen, since the Giants are are in the habit of losing every game (remember, though, that they do have a winning record on the road, and every single Giant loss has been to a team that currently has a winning record.). That win we're giving them over Washington puts them at 8-8, with a 7-5 conference record.

The Giants WILL ALMOST DEFINITELY have the tiebreaker over all other teams in the conference, because they have head-to-head wins over the Panthers and Falcons, a better conference record than everyone except Green Bay, and a higher "strength of victory" winning percentage than Green Bay (Green Bay, mind you, would have to win at Chicago to finish in a tie with the Giants).

Here's where the Giants COULD get screwed:

If the Giants and Packers are tied with one or more teams for the final Wild Card spot, all the other teams would be eliminated because of poor conference records, and it would come down to "record in common games" between the Giants and Packers. Well, somehow, it's tied again, at 1-4, because we're assuming the Packers have beaten the Bears (and the Giants have a win over the Eagles, who beat the Packers.) So, if the Giants and Packers are both 8-8, the final NFC Wild Card spot comes down to "strength of victory" between the two teams. I got out my calculator, and figured out the strength of victory possibilities.

If the Packers beat the Bears, their strength of victory gets boosted WAAAAAAAAAY up, because, hey, they've beaten a Bears team that's 13-3. Still, factoring that win in, the only way the Packers can overtake the Giants in strength of victory is if ALL 8 of the following things happen:

1. Detroit wins at Dallas
2. the Dolphins win at Indianapolis
3. the Cardinals win at San Diego
4. the Vikings win at St. Louis
5. the 49'ers win at Denver
6. Seattle beats Tampa Bay
7. Cleveland wins vs. Houston
8. New Orleans beats Carolina

In other words, if ONE of those things DOES NOT HAPPEN, the Giants are in the playoffs with a win over Washington. I really crunched these numbers hard. I'm not wrong.

Oh, and by the way, I'm sorry for ever writing anything about the NFC not being that bad, because it is. I'm writing about how the crappy Giants, at 7-8, control their own playoff destiny. That's the definition of a bad conference. My bad.

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