Playoff Picks, Conference Title Games, 2018-19

I've got fully developed thoughts on today's games, but I don't have a fully developed amount of time.  So I'll just focus on my one key for the game.

Record Last Week: 3-1
Against the Spread: 1-3

Record for the Playoffs: 5-3
Against the Spread: 3-4-1

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints, 3:05 p.m. (Spread: Saints favored by 3)

What the game comes down to: Whether the slowdown by Drew Brees and the Saints' offense is a five-week fluke, or indicative of a larger problem.

What I think: Five-week fluke. I think the Saints' offensive rhythm, which has been missing for weeks but sort of started coming back during their 20-14 comeback win over the Eagles last week, will be all the way back for this game. I also think Mark Ingram, the running back people tend to forget about in this Saints' offense, will run for over 100 yards and two touchdowns.

The pick: SAINTS -3. Score: Saints 30, Rams 20

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs, 6:40 p.m. (Spread: Chiefs favored by 3)

What the game comes down to: Whether the Chiefs' defensive performance against the Colts last week was a one-week blip against an offense that had a bad day, or a sign that Kansas City can at least get a few stops and/or force a turnover or two.

What I think: This game comes down to offense, I get that. There was a total of ONE punt between these two teams (by the Chiefs) when the Pats won by 43-40 earlier this season. But after watching the Pats' offense look like a machine last week against a much better Chargers' defense, I think holding the Pats to, say, less than 34 points becomes the key to this game for the Chiefs. Their defense has been much better at home this year than on the road, and I think the home field makes the difference here. The Chiefs get a few stops, and they get to the Super Bowl.,

The pick: CHIEFS -3. Score: Chiefs 30, Pats 26

Playoff Picks, Divisional Round 2018-19

It’s the greatest football weekend of the year!

LAST WEEK

Record: 2-2

Against the spread: 2-1-1

SATURDAY

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs, 4:35 p.m. (Spread: Chiefs favored by 5) 

It’s currently snowing in Kansas City, but the current forecast says that should stop right around kickoff. I’m going to treat this one like weather isn’t a factor.

The Colts are by far the more complete team in this game, which isn’t usually the case for a road team in the Divisional round. The problem for Indianapolis is that even if they do many things better than Kansas City, there’s nothing they’re as great at doing as the Chiefs are at scoring points. 

The problem for the Chiefs, of course, is their defense can’t stop anybody. That list will include Andrew Luck after this game, but does that mean the Chiefs are doomed? Of course not.

Patrick Mahomes put up one of the best seasons of any quarterback in NFL history, and as long as he can keep playing the way he has all year, the Chiefs are going to score points. In its analysis of this game, Football Outsiders pointed out that many quarterbacks who’ve had unbelievable seasons have seen their Luck (pun moderately intended) run out during the playoffs. 

Couple that with Andy Reid and the Chiefs’ no good, very bad history against the Colts in the postseason, and my unusually high level of empathy really feels for Chiefs fans right now. I’m going to pick them to pull the game out, with the Chiefs taking advantage of the Colts’ inability to cover tight end Travis Kelce. Call it 34-30, with the Colts covering the spread. But if Luck gets that ball at the end with a chance to win the game, I’ll be watching with a hand over my eye.

Pick: Colts +5, Score: Chiefs 33, Colts 30

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams, 8:15 p.m. (Spread: Rams favored by 7) 

If you’re into betting on favorites, this game is one of several this weekend with a troubling trend: The advanced stats show the Cowboys (along with some of the other underdogs) as trending upward in the second half of the season, while the Rams have gone the other way.

The Rams are the much more talented team, and I think the rest will be an advantage for them. Two things trouble me from a Rams’ standpoint: On defense they have trouble covering No. 1 receivers, which could mean a big game from Amari Cooper. When they have the ball, Jared Goff hasn’t looked right. 

I’m going to wager that Rams’ coach Sean McVay and his staff have a plan to rectify my concerns, and erase the bad memories of that home playoff loss to the Falcons last year.

Pick: Rams -7, Score: Rams 34, Cowboys 24

SUNDAY

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots, 1:05 p.m. (Spread: Pats favored by 4) 

I took a leap during the Super Bowl last year and decided not to believe in the Patriots’ “mystique” anymore. It worked out well for me, and I’m going to keep doing the same thing. I’m looking at this Patriots team, one that underperformed against expectations during the regular season, as a normal squad. They have a great coach, an aging quarterback who can’t beat the blitz  and a dearth of deep threats.

They also have an advantage running the ball and throwing to running back James White, and will probably rely on that against the Chargers. I like the Chargers’ chances at moving the ball on New England, which has a pretty average defense. One thing to watch out for, though: The Pats blitz a lot, and those are the types of teams that give Philip Rivers trouble. I think this game is going to be super close, and I think the Pats are the inferior team. Their mystique died after that comeback win in last year’s AFC Championship game against the Jags, and it ain’t ever coming back.

Pick: Chargers +4. Score: Chargers 27, Pats 24 

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints, 4:40 p.m. (Spread: Saints favored by 8) 

There really seems to be something about Nick Foles, AKA Large Richard Nicholas (h/t to Football Outsiders for that outstanding nickname from the site’s game preview). Is that enough for the Eagles to stay close in this game?

NO. There’s a reason the Saints blew out the Eagles earlier this year. Plus, Foles hasn’t been good on long bombs this year, and that’s the Saints’ biggest defensive weakness. I expect the Eagles to dink and dunk with throws to Darren Sproles and Wendell Smallwood against a Saints’ defense that doesn’t defend running back catches very well, but to come up small when they try to go deep.

The difference in the game, though, will be the Saints’ offense. Expect an early lead and some of that rhythm we saw from them earlier in the season that has gone missing recently. The Saints’ downward trajectory makes me a little worried about having so much conviction here, but it’s Drew Brees. His presence makes me worry less.

Pick: Saints -8. Score: Saints 37, Eagles 17

Playoff Picks, Wild Card Weekend 2018-19

I can't remember a Wild Card weekend with zero TERRIBLE quarterbacks and, more importantly, zero terrible games. At least on paper, all of these games are interesting enough to watch without regretting it later. No Connor Cook vs. Brock Osweiler, no in-game headlines involving Andy Dalton interceptions, and no games with spreads of more than a touchdown. I'm in. The spreads are from the Bovada Sportsbook at around 1:30 p.m.

LAST YEAR

Record for the playoffs: 6-5

Against the spread: 5-5-1

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans, 4:30 p.m. (Spread: Texans favored by 1.5) 

This game's going to be a little lower scoring than people think. Earlier this year, the Texans won in Indianapolis by 37-34. Later in the year, The Colts won in Houston by 24-21. When teams know each other well, it's harder to make explosive plays on offense. That doesn't mean DeAndre Hopkins of Houston and a slightly hobbled T.Y. Hilton of the Colts are going to get shut down, but I don't see this as a back-and-forth shootout like a lot of the "smart money" does.

In fact, despite Houston's ability to stop the run and the Colts' not-as-great-but-still-solid run defense, I think both teams will try to run the ball a lot. The Texans, of course, will do it more with their quarterback, and Deshaun Watson is certainly dangerous. 

But enough about game flow. What's the key to this game? Why the Texans' pass rush, of course! If Andrew Luck has time to throw behind the revamped and impressive Colts offensive line, he's going to continue his moderately remarkable comeback season by making a few more plays with his arm than Watson. But if Jadeveon Clowney and J.J. Watt can hurry and hit Luck, I slightly favor the Texans. This game has the greatest chance of going into overtime than any of the others this weekend. I'm going to go with Luck on the road.

Pick: Colts +1.5, Score: Colts 23, Texans 21

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys, 8:15 p.m. (Spread: Cowboys favored by 2) 

Amari Cooper trade or not, the advanced stats don't tell the same story about the Cowboys that the media reports do. They're an average team that's won a bunch of close games to win a shaky division. Cooper, after his great start, hasn't been as good the past few weeks. Ezekiel Elliott led a Cowboys rushing attack that was...wait, 19th best in the league according to Football Outsiders? That can't be right. It is. 

The Seahawks, on the other hand, have a much more consistent team and have been one of the bigger surprises in the NFL this year. They've lost a puzzling game recently, that one to the 49'ers, but besides that all their losses are completely defensible and they've even beaten the Cowboys already. And the Chiefs!

Also, one of my favorite things to do when I'm thinking about games like this is asking myself whether I can go to sleep at night. "Can I go to sleep at night betting on Dak Prescott over Russell Wilson?" Um. No. I can't.

Pick: Seahawks +2, Score: Seahawks 24, Cowboys 17

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens, 1:05 p.m. (Spread: Ravens favored by 2.5) 

My eyes tell me the Ravens are tough. They play big-boy football. They have nearly 20 years of institutional excellence behind them. 

The numbers back it up. Since Lamar Jackson took over for Joe Flacco, the Ravens have run the ball at a historic rate. Not a historic rate of effectiveness, mind you, just a historic rate of attempts. In 2018, that's sort of insane. Plus, they beat the Chargers in Los Angeles a few weeks ago, though that's not exactly the best home-field advantage.

The line between wins and losses in the NFL is pretty thin these days, but the Chargers won 12 games this year. Their four losses are to the No. 1 seed in the AFC (the Chiefs, who they also beat this year), the No. 2 seed in the NFC (the Rams), a Broncos team that always gives them hell (in a game with field goal shenanigans in the end, and these very same Ravens.

The Ravens are better coached and they have that cool, young, running quarterback thing going and they have an awesome defense. Plus, the Chargers are doing that whole east-to-west, 10 a.m. body clock thing that everyone always worries about. These are two good defenses, but only one of the teams has an above average offense. And that's the team led by the much better QB, Philip Rivers. 

I worry about a bad coaching decision or a bad Rivers interception ruining this game, but I'm not betting on it. As a rule, why would I ever NOT bet on an underdog that won 12 games and is GETTING points in an NFL playoff game. Again, I can go to sleep at night with money on the Chargers, despite their haunted history.

Pick: Chargers +2.5, Score: Chargers 19, Ravens 16 

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears, 4:40 p.m. (Spread: Bears favored by 6.5) 

I ALMOST bought into the whole Nick Foles is the savior thing, but then my brain took over. I started looking at the numbers and really, this is just an average Eagles team against a Bears team with an awesome defense and a much better version of Mitchell Trubisky.

Plus, Matt Nagy is an innovative offensive mind who knows how to put his questionable quarterback in advantageous positions. That sounds a little like Doug Pederson last year, doesn't it? 

The Bears have nearly every statistical edge in this game, plus they're playing at home. In fact, the only advantage the Eagles have on offense or defense is that their passing offense is good on second down. I had to look pretty hard for that (actually, I just read it here in the Football Outsiders preview of the games). 

The only other advantage for the Eagles is on special teams, so if the game is close, maybe that'll come in handy.

I just don't think the game will be close enough for that to happen. This feels like one of those games where the Bears go up early and just stifle Foles and the Eagles the whole game. They'd be smart to bring only four pass rushers and drop the other seven guys into a zone defense, which Foles struggled against this season. 

Look, I get it. Sometimes, the numbers don't really tell the story. Sometimes fate and destiny and all that bullshit are on one team's side. Nick Foles is a religious man, and maybe that counts for something. I don't know. I think this narrative only works if the opponent has some things going against it. While Trubisky is a little shaky and is playing in his first playoff game, I think the Nagy factor cancels that out and the Bears' defense wins this game.

Pick: Bears -6.5, Score: Bears 20, Eagles 10