Playoff Picks, 2018 Conference Title Games

As expected, the last four quarterbacks standing are Nick Foles, Case Keenum, Blake Bortles and a sixth-round draft choice from a small school in Ann Arbor, Michigan. As always, the spreads are an average of all the major sportsbooks from vegasinsider.com.

Record for the playoffs: 3-5

Against the spread: 3-4-1

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots, 3:05 p.m. (Spread: Pats favored by 7.5) 

Tom Brady’s mysterious hand cut pushed the spread down, but not enough where we should change our thinking about this game.

More than I thought, tons of people kinda sorta wanna maybe take the Jags, thinking something just doesn’t really feel right about this version of the Patriots despite them being exactly where we thought they would be. I’m sort one of them. 

And the formula’s there. Everyone knows the recipe for beating Brady in the playoffs: Get a pass rush with your four defensive lineman and hope the seven guys dropping back into coverage can make enough stops on the plays where Brady isn’t hit. That’s how the Jags are built. To boot, they have two outstanding cornerbacks. (Side note: As my former WSJ colleague and current writer/podcaster for The Ringer’s Kevin Clark pointed out on the Ringer NFL Podcast, that isn’t just a formula for beating Brady, it’s a formula for beating basically any team in the NFL.)

Then, all you need is for your offense to make zero mistakes and two lucky or spectacular plays and voila, you have a shot to beat the Pats. It helps that the strength of this Jags team on offense is running the ball. 

Or does it?

Most analysts would have you believe the game comes down to whether the Jags can follow that formula I just outlined above. I don’t think it does. Smart people call it a false dichotomy. You think the answer comes down to A or B but you never stopped to think there might be other alternatives...

I expect Bill Belichick to do three things in this game that guarantee success, and offer options other than A or B:

1. Use all his defensive resources to take away Leonard Fournette and the Jags’ rushing attack, thus making Blake Bortles the focal point of the game when Jacksonville has the ball. Forced to pass on 3rd and long after 3rd and long after 3rd and long, Belichick believes, will result in at least a few turnovers from Bortles.
2. Turn Rob Gronkowski completely loose. All season, well at least for the most part, Belichick has put plastic wrap on Gronk the moment the outcome of the game is decided. Well, we’re in week 20, and guess what the one Jacksonville coverage weakness is? COVERING TIGHT ENDS! How convenient. The only thing Belichick does better than taking away the one thing you do well, which I covered in No. 1, is exploiting that team’s weaknesses. 
3. Speaking of weaknesses, Jacksonville’s other defensive liability is stopping the run. Whether it’s little behind-the-line passes or traditional runs, I think Belichick is going to rely more on the run in this game than he has the entire season. Dion Lewis, James White, your mom, whomever, I wouldn’t be shocked if Brady threw the ball fewer than 25 times in this game. Obviously, game flow - or a reliance on fast-paced, no-huddle plays to tire out the Jags’ pass rush could mean more passing, but I don’t think so. 

And so there’s your formula. You thought I was going to choose between door A and door B and I showed you some more doors you didn’t even know I had in the back!

Plus, if I’m completely wrong, I was completely wrong about Blake Bortles not being able to beat Tom Brady. That’s not an embarrassing kind of wrong. Pick: Pats -7.5, Score: Pats 28, Jags 13

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles, 6:40 p.m. (Spread: Vikings favored by 3) 

It’s easy to think Minnesota is the team of destiny after last Sunday’s miraculous last-second touchdown and the fact that the Super Bowl is in their home building, but sometimes we can go overboard with that stuff. Did you ever have a really productive and fulfilling day at work? It’s human nature to coast a little the day after, isn’t it? Maybe you do your Amazon Fresh delivery or procrastinate. I think that’s possible for football teams, too.

I’m not saying I expect Case Keenum to take an extra long lunch break at Lincoln Financial Field tonight, but I am saying be careful with all your destiny crap.

The way these teams are built, especially with Carson Wentz out for the Eagles, I expect the game will come down to one thing: Third down and long. Not which team CONVERTS better on third and long, but which team FACES FEWER third and long.

Case Keenum played pretty well for the Vikings last week, but he looked a bit shaky at times throwing the ball up for grabs. That includes a costly interception that really helped get the Saints back into the game. What situations are most conducive to throwing the ball up for grabs the most? Well, it’s being forced into third and long and having to throw the ball downfield under pressure!

When the Eagles have the ball, they’ll be lining up against the best third down defense since the early 2000s, affording to both traditional and advanced statistics. Obviously, they also must avoid the third and longs, especially without Wentz. Last week, they mostly did, and when they didn’t they were able to convert thanks to some artful play calling. 

This week, with all the great defense we’re going to see in this game, avoiding those third and longs will be the deciding factor. Statistically, the most important indicator in who wins games is turnover ratio. You know what’s number two? Being efficient on first and second down. 

That’s why I think the Eagles, in an otherwise even matchup with a slight disadvantage at quarterback (Keenum is a little more trustworthy than Nick Foles), have a slight advantage. Minnesota is one of the worst teams in the league at altogether stuffing running plays, while the Eagles are one of the best. Not having negative plays on early downs, and varying your first down runs and passes, is the best way to stay out of third and long. 

While Keenum has been great all year at avoiding sacks, I think this is the game where it comes back to haunt him. One or two interceptions on forced throws, especially in a defensive battle like this, get magnified and Minnesota finds itself behind, on the road, against the REAL Cinderella team, the Foles-led Eagles.

It won’t be pretty, but I do think the Eagles have enough defense and just enough offense to grind a game out similarly to the one they won against Atlanta last week. I wouldn’t be surprised if Minnesota pulled the game out, but the Eagles get the slight edge because of the home crowd. Pick: Eagles +3, Score: Eagles 17, Vikings 13

Playoff Picks, Divisional Round 2018

Last week I was wrong on most of the games. Part of it I'd do again, but part of it was me overlooking some things. The Falcons experience over the Rams, which I talked about, ended up meaning more than I thought. Cam Newton was peak Cam Newton and thus able to cover the spread against the Saints. Andy Reid gonna Andy Reid. The only thing I truly had 100% confidence in was the only thing I was right about, and that's Blake Bortles as a more-than-a-touchdown favorite in a postseason game is not something that any gambler should ever expose himself/herself to financially.

For this week, we have two big favorites in Pittsburgh and New England, a Falcons team that's an unprecedented road favorite in Philadelphia because of Carson Wentz's injury, and a matchup between what appear to be the two best teams in football right now. I want to look at these games from the underdogs' perspective. What's the narrative? What does _______ have to do to win this game? What are the chances they actually do it? As always, the spreads are from VegasInsider.com's average of all the top Vegas sportsbooks.

Record last week: 1-3
Against the spread: 1-3

Saturday

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:35 p.m. (Spread: Falcons favored by 3) 
There are two things to be super wary about in this game: 1) The Falcons team that looked a little too good and made it look a little too easy last week, and 2) the narrative that Nick Foles is the worst quarterback to ever play the game.

I'm going to ignore both those things for a second. The Eagles are definitely not as good a team without Carson Wentz, but they have a very good defense. People seem to forget that. They've been giving up a few more big plays through the air lately, but for the season as a whole, they were third best in the league at surrendering explosive pass plays. (I get those stats from sharpfootballstats.com, which is an unbelievable site). As easy as it is to just think the Falcons are back in Super Bowl form after last week's win over the Rams, I'd rather take the bigger body of work: They're good, but they aren't as efficient as they were last year with Kyle Shanahan as their offensive coordinator. There's something missing.

Back to Foles: He looked awful at the end of the season, but he's been wildly inconsistent his entire career. He's something in between the competent, almost good quarterback that barely beat the Giants late in the season, and the Blake Bortles-level disaster that held on against the Raiders. The thing the Eagles did best during the season with Wentz - convert third-and-long plays at an unconscionable rate - is gone forever, at least until the 2018 season. 

So what's the narrative for the Eagles to pull off the "upset?" It's actually fairly easy. Foles is okay, we learn the Eagles used the bye week to sharpen the running plays in their gameplan, and they stay out of those third and longs that they just won't be able to convert with Foles under center. Their defense handles the Falcons' running game, they use a raucous crowd and strong pass rush to their advantage, and win a close contest to move within a game of the Super Bowl.  

The Falcons can obviously win this game, but it's unfair that they're favored. The Eagles are probably only an average offense with Foles as their quarterback, but despite their recent improvements, the Falcons are only average on defense themselves. So the Eagles have the worse quarterback, but they're mostly even on offense, and have a slight advantage when the Falcons have the ball. Oh. And they're playing at home. That's enough for me. Just enough. Pick: Eagles +3, Score: Eagles 22, Falcons 20

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots, 8:15 p.m. (Spread: Pats favored by 13.5) 
There's a very clear narrative for the Titans to win this game. I can tell that story pretty well, too. I actually used to write as a journalist for a living. The Titans, who run the ball better than all but seven NFL teams according to footballoutsiders.com, go up to Foxboro and control the ball and the clock, score touchdowns instead of field goals against a good Pats' red zone defense, prove correct the minimal research that older quarterbacks' arms get weaker as the season goes along, even if that older quarterback is Tom Brady, get pressure on TB12 up the middle, aaaaaaand somehow get a break or two and/or don't leave any time on the clock for Brady to win the game at the end. 

Whew. 

Shit. 

That's a lot of stuff. 

Is it going to happen? It might. But I don't trust the Titans' defense to stop the Pats' offense, and that's really what this comes down to. New England's in the top 3 of all major offensive categories, and the only thing the Titans can do is stop the run. That will NOT be enough. When one team needs a zillion things to happen to win and the other team has eight or nine paths to victory, and that team is coached by Bill Belichick and quarterbacked by Tom Brady, don't be stupid. That's what my mama taught me.  Pick: Pats -13.5, Score: Pats 37, Titans 13

Sunday

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1:05 p.m. (Spread: Steelers favored by 7)
Let's forget about that time earlier this season where Big Ben threw five interceptions in a blowout home loss to the Jags and suggested he might not "have it" anymore. This isn't going to be that, or anything close. Yes Leonard Fournette rushed for 181 yards in that game, but besides the one looooooong run that sealed the victory, he was only successful on 26% of his other runs. That's really bad. Beware the easy narrative. Don't think lazily. Use your head.

Plus, Big Ben threw for more total yardage to Jacksonville defenders than Blake Bortles did to Jags' offensive players. They just were able to hide Bortles since, you know, they were up by three touchdowns. But he didn't have anything to do with them winning the game.

So if I'm forgetting about that game, do I see any scenario where Bortles and the Jags could win? Well, yeah! No. 1, he can't throw for fewer yards than he runs for, like he did last week, and win the game. He has to go deep early, and it has to work. The Steelers are vulnerable to the big pass recently, coming in at fourth-worst in the league at surrendering explosive pass plays since Week 12 according to sharpfootballstats.com. Jacksonville's defense is great, but the Jags are not going to win this game with only defense. They need Bortles to throw for, say, 225 yards to win this game. Okay, maybe 190. They're also going to have to play even better on defense this week than they did in surrendering three points to the Bills last week, because the Steelers' weapons - even if Antonio Brown isn't 100% coming off the calf injury - are just a tad more dangerous than Buffalo's.

Can this stuff happen? I guess. But why would you bet on it? First of all, Bortles isn't going to perform well in sub-20 degree temperatures. Secondly, the one Jags' weakness on defense is they're bad against the run (No. 26 in the league). Pittsburgh is going to come out wanting to get Le'veon Bell involved on the ground, and they're going to get it done. They're probably going to get ahead and then Bortles is going to be forced to throw, and you know how that ends.

Unless of course, he hits that big throw early. Then maybe they can win. Nah, probably not. Pick: Steelers -7, Score: Steelers 27, Jaguars 7

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings, 4:40 p.m. (Spread: Vikings favored by 5) 
Rarely do we get a toss-up game in the divisional round in which so many people think the winner might go the Super Bowl. And while I don't understand why the betting public has pushed the spread for this game up to a very NON toss-up looking 5 points after it opened at 3.5, I do think whoever wins this game is more likely to go the Super Bowl than the Eagles or Falcons.

How even is this game? According to footballoutsiders.com, every single time one of these offensive units are on the field, both teams will have units that are top 10 in the major statistical offensive and defensive categories except for when Minnesota's middle-of-the-pack rushing attack runs it against the Saints' bottom-third run defense. That's it! Everything else is elite on elite. 

Minnesota's defense is slightly better than New Orleans', although the Vikings don't get a lot of pressure on the quarterback. The Vikings also don't bring six or more pass rushers too often to try and generate more pressure, and don't expec them to in this game, either. When Drew Brees faced six or more pass rushers, the Saints' offense was the second most productive in the league in terms of yards per play.

Last week, the Panthers limited the new-look Saints' rushing attack, but got burned by Brees the way he's been burning teams for years. So now we know that New Orleans, just like in years past, doesn't need to rush the ball effectively to win. The Minnesota defense, as good as it is, won't totally shut down Brees and the Saints, which means they're going to need at least a little from the Cinderella story of the season, Case Keenum.

I like Keenum. I think he's confident, and competent. I don't think he's one of the three best quarterbacks in the league, as the statistics currently suggest, but you could do a lot worse than him as your quarterback. But in this otherwise even matchup, I've been watching football for far too long to be confident putting my faith in Case Keenum over Drew Brees. When all the numbers suggest the game is a toss-up, why would I ever do that? Anything can happen, up to and including a Vikings' 24-10 win in which they throttle the Saints' offense and force a few turnovers. But I'd be irresponsible to count on that, and I won't.

Plus, the Vikings are going to be playing the Super Bowl in their own building? That just doesn't seem possible, right? Saints+5, Score: Saints 27, Vikings 20

Playoff Picks, 2018 Wild Card Weekend

It’s been a wacky year in the NFL, but hey, you knew that already. The postseason might end up being even wackier. Eight of the teams in the playoffs (Philadelphia, Minnesota, the Rams, New Orleans, Carolina, Buffalo, Jacksonville and Tennessee) didn’t make it last year. The two top seeds in the NFC don’t have their regular quarterback, and last year’s NFC champion played weirdly all year but you still kind of want to believe in them. As always, I pick these games with both macro and micro thoughts in mind. The spreads are a consensus average compiled by VegasInsider.com.

Record for the playoffs last year: 7-4
Against the spread: 5-6

Saturday

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs, 4:30 p.m. (Spread: Chiefs favored by 8.5) It’s easy to look at this game and think about how the Titans want to slow the game down and run run run on the Chiefs’ worst in the league run defense (according to football outsiders.com). But I’m more interested in the fact that neither of these defenses really performed that well in any situation. Most Titans games end up pretty ugly but I actually think this game will be surprisingly high scoring. I also think the Chiefs have overcome their early hiccups and should pull away at the end, and cover the spread in the process. Tennessee will have trouble covering KC’s secondary receivers, and most notably, the star tight end Travis Kelce. Pick: Chiefs -8.5, Score: Chiefs 34, Titans 24

Atlanta Falcons at L.A. Rams, 8:30 p.m. (Spread: Rams favored by 6) I’m a believer in numbers, but I also understand these are human beings playing tackle football games. The Rams, who’ve played well all year, rested their stars last week and so they’re basically coming off a bye week. That rust worries me, especially against an experienced Falcons team. Still, the Rams performed well after long layoffs during the regular season, and there’s a smart gambling adage I learned about this year that west coast teams usually outperform the point spread during night games, simply because of their body clocks. Plus, I’ve been waiting for the Falcons to be peak Falcons all season, and I’m still waiting. Why would it start now? The Falcons should move the ball but they won’t do a good enough job stopping the Rams. One caveat: if it comes down to a kick, the Falcons are going to win. I just don’t think it will... Pick: Rams -6, Score: Rams 27, Falcons 20

Sunday

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. (Spread: Jags favored by 8.5) 
I could analyze the hell out of this game all I want, but it really comes down to one thing. I will never ever take Blake Bortles as an 8.5 favorite in the playoffs. That doesn’t mean the Jags aren’t going to win. Hell, it doesn’t even mean they can’t win 30-7. It just means I can’t in good conscience enjoy my day knowing that I backed Blake Bortles as an 8.5-point playoff favorite. As I usually do, I’m loathe to pick an underdog to cover the spread without winning outright, so I guess I have to pick the Bills to win. The glass slipper fits for one more week. Pick: Bills +8.5, Score: Bills 19, Jaguars 17

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints, 4:30 p.m. (Spread: Saints favored by 7) 
Does the old adage that it’s tough to beat a team three times in one season make any sense? Sure it does...when those games are super close. But the Saints beat the Panthers twice this year and neither game was close (Carolina scored a backdoor touchdown at the end of the second game to make it seem close, but it wasn’t.) I don’t think New Orleans will run over the Panthers the whole game, but I do think they’ll get big plays in the passing game out of both Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas and benefit from a few big mistakes by Cam Newton. That’ll be enough for a team that I’ve said for weeks is a good bet to go to the Super Bowl. Pick: Saints-7, Score: Saints 31, Panthers 20