Super Bowl 50 Pick

Record for the playoffs: 7-3
Against the Spread: 3-7

Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers (Spread: Panthers by 5.5), 6:30 p.m.
I'm tired of the noise. Denver has the best defense in the league by a wide margin, and teams with the best defense in the league by a wide margin don't evuh - EVUH - get blown out in the Super Bowl. EVUH. Look it up.

The circumstances around this best defense are certainly interesting, in that the quarterback of the team with the great D is one of the greatest of all time but also - at this stage of his career - one of the worst QBs to ever start a Super Bowl. This is the Trent Dilfer-led Ravens of 2001, albeit with a slightly less dominant defense. The Ravens won that Super Bowl by 34-7 over the Giants, on one of the worst days of my life. 

It matters that Peyton Manning is a severely limited quarterback playing against a very good Panthers' defense in this game, but don't for a second think Denver can't win this game. They can win, and they aren't going to be blown out. Do yourself a favor and erase that Seahawks/Broncos blowout from two years ago out of your mind some time in the next six hours, because that wasn't the same thing as this. Denver's defense was nowhere near good enough to make up for how Seattle dominated Manning and the Broncos' offense that day. That won't be the case tonight.

That's because Gary Kubiak's offensive game plan will almost certainly be conservative, never putting the onus on Manning to force throws into the tight windows he can no longer fit the ball into. A few first downs and a punt will be a good drive for the Broncos. But they'll get a touchdown or two on this Panthers' defense, because Denver's own D will set up good field position a handful of times. The offensive star for Denver, if they're going to win this game, will likely be Emmanuel Sanders. Carolina covers tight ends and No. 1 receivers well, and that makes Sanders the obvious beneficiary.

When Carolina has the ball, Wade Phillips and his magical defensive coordination has a great luxury in that his corners can cover the Panthers' speedy receivers one-on-one. That's not to say Ted Ginn Jr. can't use his speed to get open deep every now and then (whether he catches the ball or not is a different matter entirely). It's just that Denver can't focus its resources worrying about that. If you try to take away everything, you take away nothing. 

No, what Denver has to take away is Carolina's strong and inventive running game, which merges traditional power concepts with the zone-read plays that take advantage of Cam Newton's unique running ability. To stop that stuff, Phillips is going to have to mix up his defenses, like putting star pass rushers Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware over center every now and then and hope to hold Newton to minimal gains when he tried to run outside. It won't be easy - Carolina will likely get more than 120 yards rushing in this game - but it's possible. Holding the Panthers' run game to, say, 3.8-to-4.2 yards per carry will give the Broncos the chance to do what they really do best, rush the quarterback in passing situations. If Carolina is in 3rd-and-long for much of the day, the season-long ability to mask the deficiencies on the offensive line - particularly left tackle Michael Oher - could break down. I expect two sacks from Ware and another one or two from Miller, if, you know, Denver wants to win the game.

By now, you might have noticed that I've talked myself into the Broncos winning Super Bowl 50. You've noticed right. But I also know the themes I'm counting on are pretty flimsy, and can fall apart the moment Manning throws a first-quarter interception that Luke Kuechly returns for a touchdown. Or the moment we realize that the Panthers' offensive game plan is to take advantage of Newton's running ability more than it has lately, thwarting any chance for Phillips to stick with his original strategy.

But that's what these games are about. Every theme is flimsy, because most good teams are vaguely similar to each other and a majority of games are close. Carolina's recent propensity to blow teams out shouldn't be discounted, but it's a small sample size. NFL games usually come down to one or two bounces, one or two yards, one or two decisions. I just happen to think more of those will go Denver's way in this one. And despite Peyton Manning's shortcomings at the end of his career - and the fact that Denver will probably have to win this game despite him - he'll finally earn a spot at the big boy table next to his kid brother next Thanksgiving with a second Super Bowl ring. Broncos 24, Panthers 17

2015-16 Conference Championship Picks

Rarely can a person successfully pick the winner of six out of eight playoff games and somehow be 2-6 against the spread, but I DID IT! Congratulate me. This has been the postseason of win but don't cover, or if I pick the game, lose and don't cover. For championship Sunday, I'm going to a macro idea I've had since about week 9 that a certain NFC team is going to win the Super Bowl, even though they didn't exactly inspire confidence at the end of last week's game. The AFC game, on the other hand, comes down to one thing.

Record for the playoffs: 6-2

Against the spread: 2-6

Saturday

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (Spread: Pats by 3.5), 3 p.m.

Will they, or won't they? That's my question in this game. Specifically, will the Broncos be able to apply pressure on Tom Brady with their four defensive linemen, thus allowing the back seven to cover the endless crossing routes and pick plays the Patriots like to do. Actual football writer Bill Barnwell laid it out pretty well in an ESPN piece this week but he's totally right. The issue is, Denver's excellent defensive coordinator, Wade Phillips (not to be confused with middling head coach Wade Phillips, even though it is actually the same guy) LOVES to blitz, bringing at least one extra pass rusher more frequently than all but three teams in the league this year. I don't think he can beat Brady with those blitz-happy ways, and the teams that have given Brady the most trouble in the playoffs - you're heard this before - are the ones that get in his face without having to bring the blitz. The numbers suggest Denver could do it: the Broncos' pass rush is the best in the league in terms of the sacks they record per dropback, and the Pats are just middle of the pack in terms of pass protection, thanks to some ineffectiveness and some injuries on the o-line this year. But the onus is on Phillips to stay disciplined and not blitz 40% of the time like he tends to do. About 25% would be fine. And we'll know very early, well, maybe by the second quarter, if they're frustrating the Pats. It'll be blatantly obvious, and we'll know that at least this game is going to be a game. But if the Broncos can't get to Brady, I don't see another path to victory. That's because we learned last week that Peyton Manning isn't going to be able to pull any sort of old Peyton magic out of the hat to win this game. There's no magic left. He's a brilliant brain without the physical ability to make even the most basic throws, except for maybe four or five times a game. He'll have to make big plays on two or three of those throws, keep his turnovers at one or zero, have a competent running game by his side, and pray for the pass rush. That's Denver's only path to victory. That and the weird luck they've had this year in earning home-field advantage. The offense isn't good at all, and there's no reason to think it could compete in a shootout. New England has several paths to victory. I'm crazy though, and I think Denver's going to do what it needs to do, get to Brady enough, and win this game. Fair warning: this might be a really disgusting one to watch. Broncos 22, Pats 19

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (Spread: Panthers by 3), 6:40 p.m.

I've thought since the middle of the season that the Cardinals would win the Super Bowl, which can be VERY dangerous since the team that looks Super Bowlish in week 9 often doesn't by week 20. Throw in the fact that Carson Palmer looked sort of shaky for large parts of last week's crazy win over the Packers, and the whole west-coast-team-coming-east-for-a-chilly-night-game thing, and I worry about sticking with my original feelings: Especially considering how well Cam Newton has played all year, albeit with limited weapons. Carolina has its own set of problems, most notably its propensity to grab a big lead and give nearly all of it back, as it did against the Giants earlier in the season and the Seahawks last week. On the surface, this game looks like a shootout. When you think of the Panthers and Cardinals, you think of high-scoring games and big plays. But these defenses are both really good, particularly at stopping the types of things the other is good at. Still, plays are going to be made. I think the Cardinals are going to win for three reasons: 1. I don't see them falling behind big early, which will be VERY important in this game considering it's sort of cold and they're the road team. These things matter in January, even if they're not quantifiable. 2. The Cards have such a wide array of fast receivers that can run around through the secondary, even if Josh Norman is locking down Larry Fitzgerald or whomever he's covering. One or two of them will make huge plays. 3. Carolina likes to set up things with the run, and the Cards are equipped to stop that. Cam Newton is the MVP of the league, but he's not always the most accurate passer, and he's often helped by the running game. I see that leading to one or two mistakes, and those will probably be the difference in the game. The one weird thing I'd worry about from the Cardinals' perspective is their inability to cover punts. Ted Ginn could run one back for a touchdown in this game. That could be the difference in the game. I say it won't be. I also say this game will be a classic. OK, MIGHT be. Cardinals 31, Panthers 30

2015-16 Divisional Playoff Picks

So I guess all four road teams CAN win on Wild Card weekend. I made one tactical error, which was to undervalue Alex Smith and overvalue the platter of poo that is Brian Hoyer. He's not the kind of quarterback you can bet on in the playoffs, and I knew it the moment that game started. I'm disappointed in myself. But that stuff's all like, soooo last week. Now the legitimately eight best teams in pro football are still around, and I expect things to go truer to form. The spreads I'm using are from to sportsbook.ag at 9:30 a.m. on Saturday. 

Record last week: 3-1

Against the spread: 1-3

Saturday

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (Spread: Pats by 5), 4:35 p.m.

You're not going to believe this, but pretty much all the stats favor the Chiefs in this game. The Pats' biggest offensive advantage is they're fourth in the league in passing offense according to the advanced stats from footballoutsiders.com, but guess what, the Chiefs are No. 5 at defending the pass! New England's biggest edge is its great kickoff coverage, which could come in handy against a Chiefs team that returned one for a touchdown last week. In my head, Kansas City was basically a homeless man's version of last year's San Diego Chargers, a team that always gets six yards on third and five to keep drives alive. That's not the case. The Chiefs aren't particularly good at converting third downs, but they get a lot of yards on first down. That keeps the game manageable for them, because YOU WOULD THINK this team isn't particularly explosive. But they're No. 6 in the league in percentage of plays that are "big," plays of 10+ rushing yards or 25+ passing yards. The Pats are in the middle of the pack in that category. Kansas City's also very good in the red zone, something the Pats are meh at stopping. I don't put much credence into red zone stats, it's too small a sample size. Still, right now, especially with New England's injuries, everything points to the Chiefs. I think the game will be close, and the Chiefs will cover the five-point spread, but I don't want you people calling me on the phone tomorrow saying "Did you really bet on Alex Smith and Andy Reid to win a road playoff game against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick?" No, caller. No I didn't. Pats 27, Chiefs 24 

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (Spread: Cardinals by 7.5), 8:15 p.m.

You know by now what the Cardinals did the Packers in week 16. They annihilated them by 38-8. Teams that get blown out that play their abuser a second time within six weeks win about half the time in the NFL, so let's throw out (mostly) the other game. The only thing I'll say about it is Green Bay turned the ball over four times that night, with Arizona recovering a total of four of the game's seven fumbles. That's a little random, and may not happen again. What SHOULD happen in this game is Arizona, a much better team, will blanket the Packers receivers in a way Washington couldn't last week, and when Green Bay turns to the run, it won't be able to get yardage. Which is a problem, because if you can't pass and you can't run, it's tough to win football games. Arizona, on the other hand, won't be stopped nearly as often. The Cards should be able to exploit the Packers' weakness of covering secondary receivers, which in this case means you should expect big games from John Brown and/or Michael Floyd. Arizona's got too much talent and too much firepower to lose this game, you would think. Having Aaron Rodgers means the Packers have at least some some semblance of a chance, but I'm not betting on it.  Cardinals 31, Packers 17.

Sunday

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (Spread: Panthers by 2.5), 1:05 p.m.

Seattle escaped Minnesota with a very lucky win last weekend, but let's throw that game out. The weather completely changed that entire experience, and Seattle absolutely can play with Carolina. We've seen it the past three times they played, Seahawks wins of 12-7 and 13-9 and Carolina's win earlier this year in Seattle, 27-23. These teams are so evenly matched, their quarterbacks are playing great, and this has a chance to be a classic. The only clear advantages for either team all favor Seattle: The Seahawks are excellent running back punts and kickoffs, and the Panthers are very bad at covering tight ends. With such a narrow margin of error, I'm going to say one or two of those factors will be the difference, and Russell Wilson will find himself on the cusp of a third Super Bowl appearance in three years. Seahawks 19, Panthers 16. (CORRECTION: Seattle is really bad at covering tight ends. This doesn't change my pick.)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (Spread: Denver by 9), 4:40 p.m.

First of all, I've learned to not trust Ben Roethlisberger when he talks about injuries. He's lied about broken ribs, separated shoulders, broken toes, and possible surgery for torn thumb ligaments, so while I'm sure he's a little hurt, I'm not buying that he has torn ligaments in his shoulder. He's going to be able to throw the ball tomorrow. Not having Antonio Brown, however, could be the big problem. Big Ben has weapons like Marcus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant, but none of those weapons are anywhere near as good as Brown. Throw in the fact that Denver is solid in every aspect of defense, and you can already see Pittsburgh's point total being limited. The real wild card in this game though is whether Peyton Manning is going to be the Peyton Manning we saw earlier this year that basically threw two interceptions for every touchdown, or if he'll be closer to old Peyton. My vote is for something in between, although I'm a bit worried that Denver won't be able to run the ball as effectively as it would like against the Steelers. But with the way Denver can smother opposing offenses I'm giving them a slight edge. Nine points is way too high, though. Broncos 24, Steelers 16

2015-16 Wild Card Weekend Picks

I printed out a lot of stats from footballoutsiders.com about the best rush offenses and rush defenses and all those fun things, and obviously we have a weird weekend where the road teams could all be considered favorites, and I just want to simplify it all.

Gambling, especially on playoff football, is about not, after making the bet, saying to yourself "why am I financially exposed to this?" This can be many things, whether it's Andy Reid as a big favorite in a game against a good clock manager, a rookie quarterback on the road, Charlie Whitehurst anywhere. You know it when you see it.

The road quarterbacks this weekend have won 24 postseason games, while the home ones have won zero. In some cases, these games come down to things like, would you bet on AJ McCarron against Ben Roethlisberger? Would you bet on Kirk Cousins against Aaron Rodgers? Teddy Bridgewater against Russell Wilson? Alex Smith against whomever is playing for Houst..you get it. That's not to say that quarterback play is everything. You need to look at macro factors too, such as the fact that home teams never ever get swept on Wild Card weekend. Let's do this. The spreads are Saturday morning lines from sportsbook.com, which is now shadily called sportsbook.ag, because, offshore sportsbooks.

Record last year: 9-2

Against the spread: 7-4

Saturday

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (Chiefs by 3.5), 4:35 p.m.

Here's a game that's less about the quarterbacks, and more about two things: Will J.J. Watt and Houston's awesome pass rush disrupt everything Alex Smith and the shaky Chiefs' pass protection want to do? And will Houston's DeAndre Hopkins get free in the Kansas City secondary, which is very suspect at covering No. 1 wide receivers. It's also worth noting that if a big special teams play happens in this game, it'll probably be the Chiefs that make it. Still, I don't think that's enough. I say Hopkins goes crazy with a 150-yard day, Watt gets two sacks, and the Texans either cover or win an ugly one. Texans 16, Chiefs 13 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (Steelers by 3), 8:15 p.m.

I don't care about the Steelers' defense and all its worries this week. It's not that bad when it's getting turnovers, and this could be a game it gets some with McCarron under center for the Bengals. A.J. Green could make some plays for the Bengals on offense, but my issue here is I won't be able to sleep if I have money on A.J. McCarron in this game against a quarterback with two rings. Sorry! Steelers 30, Bengals 20.

Sunday

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (Seahawks by 5), 1:05 p.m.

We have very recent video evidence of Seattle going into Minnesota and whoopin' 'em up real good, and I just don't see how this will be different. People overestimate experience sometimes, but not here. Russell Wilson's playing great and you may remember him from such televised games as THE LAST TWO SUPER BOWLS. Marshawn Lynch is out and that matters, but Seattle's running game is about a lot more than one guy. If you need some numerical support, Seattle is No. 2 in passing offense and No. 4 in rushing offense according to football outsiders, and the Vikings are pretty much in the middle of the pack in everything but pass defense. The two things that could create an upset are Minnesota exposing Seattle's inability to cover a tight end and maybe making a play against the Seahawks' shaky special teams unit, but you can't make a decision based on those improbabilities. Seahawks 27, Vikings 13.

Green Bay Packers at Washington (Washington by 1), 4:40 p.m.

If this game was only about Kirk Cousins vs. Aaron Rodgers, it'd be very easy to pick. But I've seen the film: Packers receivers aren't getting open this year, and their run game is inconsistent, and their defense is very meh. Washington's got a nice pass rush, and the Packers have trouble protecting Rodgers. Still, where I'm going to go here is the Washington secondary. It's near the bottom of the league at covering both No. 1 AND No. 2 receivers, which means the main weakness of the Packers' offense this year - receivers getting free - may become a strength in this game. If Washington's Ryan Kerrigan-led pass rush can't get home before Rodgers finds someone, you're going to see some semblance of the Packers you thought you'd see all year. When Washington has the ball, the Packers' weak run defense won't be tested because Washington can't run! Cousins is going to throw three picks (okay, maybe two) and the clock's striking 12 for his little Jesus-loving Cinderella story. Packers 26, Washington 19