The No. 1 defense in the NFL according to the footballoutsiders DVOA against the No. 1 offense? That’s pretty sexy. But how do you figure this puzzle out?
Broncos (-2.5) vs. Seahawks, Sunday at 6:30 p.m.
Record for playoffs: 6-4Record (against spread): 6-4
When great defenses play great offenses, both sides get a little neutered. Grantland's Bill Barnwell broke that down in his comprehensive (and great) Super Bowl preview, but basically the offense ends up scoring 24 or so points and the defense ends up conceding 24 or so points.
What do we know about this game? I mean, you can never really KNOW anything, but let's agree to agree that Denver won't be able to throw at will like usual, Seattle won't be able to touch Peyton Manning, the Broncos' run defense won't get annihilated by Marshawn Lynch and a big special teams play is more likely to come from Seattle than Denver. If any of those things ends up being wrong, the team that flips it is going to win.
One thing that Tony Dungy said YEARS ago, when he was bringing the Peyton-led Colts into Baltimore for a playoff game, was that even against a great defense, Indy could move the ball on anyone. The same could be said for these Broncos.They're not going to score 40 points and I'd be a little surprised if they even got to 30, but completely stopping Denver is going to be impossible.
That means this game is all going to come down to Russell Wilson, the affordable young quarterback who's won won won ever since he won Seattle's first-string job before the 2012 season. Wilson's been kind of shaky since week 14, after looking like a legit MVP contender the first 13 weeks of the season. If that's a product of playing against really good defenses - which he has - maybe it's unfair to judge him. Russell is going to do enough where, say, the Seahawks grab a late lead and have to stop Peyton one more time to win it. Or maybe it's Wilson, down by 2 late, trying to rally for the winning field goal.
Russell and the Seahawks are up for it, but there's something about Peyton and the year Denver's had that's tough to go against. Seattle is the better all-around, healthier team, but why should that matter? It's one game. Denver 23, Seattle 21