Super Bowl XLVII Pick

I can't get out of my head the simple fact that no matter how much these two teams have changed since Baltimore's low-scoring win over the Niners last year, the game plans and the coaches could very well be similar. Colin Kaepernick might be five times more dangerous than Alex Smith at quarterback, the Ravens might be a year more geriatric on defense and have an offensive coordinator who embraces Joe Flacco's deep-passing ability, but this is still Jim Harbaugh vs. John Harbaugh. These guys knowing each other so well, because, you know, they grew up sleeping in the same room learning their principles from the same father, means everything in this game.

I think that both guys are going to guard against the possibility of overthinking, overstrategizing, overcomplicating, against the man that knows the other best. So what I actually think we're going to get is two moderately vanilla game plans centered around execution, not chicanery. That idea, if I'm right, should point me to a San Francisco win, since they're technically the more talented team: They have the best offensive line in football, the best front-seven defense in football, the more dynamic play-to-play offense with the most innovative run schemes in football, and the best head coach in football.

But this is the Super Bowl, where 18-0 teams lose to 13-6 teams  not because incredibly crazy and random things happen, but because the NFL is no longer a league where one or two teams dominate throughout the season and entire playoffs. It's a league where the best team usually wins it all, but doesn't really show it's the best team until the last few weeks. It's weird, but it's life now. Deal with it.

Record for playoffs:  7-3
Record (vs. spread): 8-2

Ravens vs. 49'ers (49'ers favored by 4)

I've ruled out a San Francisco blowout, it's just not going to happen. The Ravens rarely get blown out (once in Houston this year when the Texans were playing great and their since-avenged blowout loss to the Broncos) and the Niners are unlikely to force the turnovers against the Ravens necessary to crush them.

So who's going to win? A forensic examination of the rosters and the recent histories would definitely say the Niners, but the game isn't going to be decided by science. As impressive as Kaepernick and the Niners have been, the Ravens have played error-freeish football and protected their quarterback, while sprinkling in big plays that make them seem like they're the "destiny" team. The key to this game, to me, is that the Niners haven't been crushing quarterbacks lately, and the Ravens have been protecting theirs. That gives Flacco more time to make big plays, and more importantly to not be harried into big mistakes.

Add that to the fact that John Harbaugh is probably going to do some smart, innovative defensive things that screw up Kaepernick and I think he'll be the one to make the big mistake if it happens.

I feel alone in this, but I'm not a believer this is going to be a shootout. I think that either team can win this game if it gets into the 30s, but I don't even believe it's going to get into the 20s. The Ravens are going to win with a late field goal by Justin Tucker in a game where a lot of drives stall in the red zone. Joe Flacco can call himself elite, starting in about 10 hours.

Ravens 19, 49'ers 16

Playoff Picks, Conference Championship Games, 2012-13

So this weekend, we have the biggest road favorite in an NFL semifinal game since at least 1978 (San Francisco), and a team (New England) that throughout the week has been favored by as much as 9.5 (it's down to 7.5) over a rival that they haven't beaten by that many points since Joe Flacco was a redshirt freshman at THE UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH (where he went before transferring to Delaware). I guess I don't see how both road teams win, because that like never ever ever happens (since 1998 when Denver and Green Bay both won on the road). But maybe they will?

Record for Playoffs:        5-3
Record (against spread): 6-2

49'ers at Falcons (49'ers favored by 4.5)

Last week, I was among those fooled by Colin Kaepernick. He was unbelievable. The Falcons, on the other hand, were very lucky that the Seahawks were a West Coast team doing that 1 p.m. East Coast road game thing, because once Seattle got going, it was clear they were the superior team and that Matt Ryan and the Falcons were pressing. This week's game is a matchup between a very physical San Francisco team that happens to conveniently have a lot of speed, and a Falcons team that is really awesome at home and at making big passing plays (although not as good as you think). I'm aware that I should beware the team that looked a little too good last weekend, but I don't see how the 49'ers lose this game. This isn't the crappy 2000-01 No. 1-seeded Giants hosting the Vikings, with everyone thinking that Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss were going to go crazy only to see the Giants murder Minnesota 41-0. The Niners are a complete team, and they're going to go to the Super Bowl. That doesn't mean it's going to be easy. I'm going to do the dumb thing and say they're going to win without covering the spread, only because I feel it's the right thing to do. Let's just say that the Niners get up early but the Falcons hang around, and lose at the end on a stalled Matty Ice drive. A big game is in store for Vernon Davis of San Francisco. If I'm wrong, that wouldn't be surprising. But I'm right.
49'ers 31, Falcons 27

Ravens at Patriots (Patriots favored by 7.5)

First of all, there's absolutely no reason this spread should be 7.5. It makes no sense. The Ravens lost by 3 in this same exact game last year, beat the Pats earlier this season, and have either beaten the Patriots or lost by less than one score every time the teams have played since 2004. I'm not sure how this game would change any of that. Even Kyle Boller almost beat the Patriots during their undefeated 2007 regular season. The question of course isn't about the betting line, everyone in the world knows that it's too high a spread (that's not to say the Pats CAN'T blow them out, it just seems unlikely). So I'm taking the points no matter what. Can I take Joe Flacco to beat Tom Brady and go to a Super Bowl? In New England? You absolutely better bet your worthless life I can do that. Or worthful life, whatever kind of life you have. I'm a bit sniffly that Flacco is about to beat Eli Manning's NFL record by winning his sixth career road playoff game, but whatevs. It's clear that the Ravens are going to the Super Bowl. The Pats don't have it against this Ravens team. I don't know why.

Ravens 34, Patriots 33

Playoff Picks, Divisional Round, 2012-13

I went 4-0 against the spread last week, which gets me to thinking that I can have the magical 11-0 postseason. But the divisional round is the easiest place to get tripped up. The last time all four home teams won their first game after the bye came in 2004, so it's pretty clear that at least one road team is going to the conference title round. The question is, will it be two or three? THAT hasn't happened since the 2008 playoffs, although it also happened in 2006 and 2007. I say yes.

Record last week:                               4-0
Record last week (against the spread): 4-0

Saturday

Ravens at Broncos (Broncos favored by 10)

I talked myself into the Ravens for this game earlier in the week, when noone in the world seemed to be picking them. But then Bill Simmons picked Baltimore in his Grantland column and it made me uneasy. I was much more comfortable picking Baltimore when NOBODY believed in them. Now, I'm not so sure. The case is pretty straightforward: 1) Peyton Manning has never won a playoff game with the temperature below 40 degrees AND he's wearing a glove. 2) A prohibitive favorite seems to lose in the divisional round every year nowadays, and it's probably not going to be the Patriots (the Falcons and 49'ers are slight home favorites, but not prohibitive favorites by any stretch. 3) Joe Flacco has a 6-4 career playoff record, can make big plays, and is not the sort of quarterback who you feel totally icky betting on. 

Of course, all three of those points are equally easy to rebut: 1) One of those games happened 11 years ago, when Peyton still hadn't won a playoff game, and the other two were in New England against Patriots teams that went on to win the Super Bowl. 2) C'mon Joe, the Broncos are the least likely home team to get upset this week. 3) You're seriously considering taking Joe Flacco on the road against Peyton Manning in the playoffs, only a few weeks after the Broncos destroyed the Ravens IN Baltimore?

They say you're not supposed to pick a road team/underdog to cover the point spread in the playoffs unless you think they can win the game outright. So that rules out what I kind of want to do, taking the Broncos in a close game. Also, there's no reason to try and be a hero. If I want to go 4-0 again this week, I'm just going to have to trust my gut: Peyton is going to come out possessed, the crowd in Denver is going to come out insane, and my entire theory of Baltimore this and Baltimore that and nobody believes in Baltimore is going to be blown out of the water when Denver goes up 14-0 before anyone has even caught their breath. Baltimore will spend the rest of the time trying to prove they belong on the field, but time will run out. 

(Be warned though. If Baltimore is in the game, they may win it. Relatedly, I may or may not have hedged the following prediction by betting that Ray Rice would score the first touchdown of the game.)
Broncos 27, Ravens 16


Packers at 49'ers (49'ers favored by 3)


Simmons linked to this video in his column and it made me realize that I shouldn't be worried about my extremely bullish feeling about the Packers. Colin Kaepernick might be a good quarterback some day, but how could I ever take him in his first playoff game against a guy with a permanent chip on his shoulder going into the city that snubbed him in the draft and oh, just happens to be the best player in the NFL? I can't do that you silly goose! Who do you think I am?
Packers 24, 49'ers 10

Sunday

Seahawks at Falcons (Falcons favored by 2.5)

It's very, very easy to get sucked into the feeling that noone trusts the Falcons in this game, and pretty much everyone likes the Seahawks, and therefore it's better to just go the other way. Not me! The Seahawks are on one of those runs that don't get stopped by people like Matt Ryan, at least not yet. I don't like the idea of betting on the Falcons when they're obviously going to be so tight, it just makes no sense to me. The things that scare me about picking the Seahawks have absolutely nothing to do with the players or the teams. They're more the intangible things like home field and "nobody believes in us even though we're 13-3" type angst and blah blah blah. Who cares. Seattle is better, and will win a close game. The one thing that really impressed me about them last week was how they kept their poise down 14-0. That tells me that even if they don't completely weather the little storm that could erupt in the first few minutes if the Falcons get some momentum, the 'Hawks will figure out a way to stabilize the game. That's all I need to know, even if they are doing the dreaded "West coast team playing a 1 p.m. game on the East Coast" thing. I'm comfortable here.
Seahawks 27, Falcons 20

Texans at Patriots (Patriots favored by 10)

Eyes, not statistics, are what I'm using to evaluate this game. I have two eyes, and they've seen these two teams on the field together. And one of them doesn't belong there. Too much Brady, receivers, home field, Schaub looking hurt. This thing is going to be bad.
Patriots 38, Texans 17

2012-13 Wild Card Playoff Weekend Picks

The old (or new) saying goes that one team always wins a road game during the first round of the NFL playoffs, and I usually pick exactly one team to win a road game. (Or at least one underdog). But I decided to research this. Last year, zero road teams won in the first round (although the Broncos were a home underdog that won). In 2010-11? Three teams. 2009-10, 2008-09, and 2007-08? Two teams EACH YEAR. The year before? ZERO. The two years before that? Three, again, EACH YEAR.

I guess it’s fun to pretend that something is a trend, but it’s kind of more fun to uncover that it’s not.

That makes me more comfortable in possibly picking two road upsets this weekend, although I kind of think one’s just going to be a spread cover and the other’s going to be an outright win. And in fact, I don't even know if I'm comfortable with one of them. Yeah, I'm not. 

Last year, I was 8-3 picking against the spreads. I go into these playoffs with a few macro views, including the belief that either the Seahawks or Packers are going to be playing the Broncos in the Super Bowl, so if gambling were legal, I would have already wagered a bit on an NFC title for Seattle or Green Bay, a Super Bowl crown for Green Bay, and a Super Bowl crown for Denver (the odds, if gambling were legal, would have been too low to make any money on Denver winning the AFC, in my opinion.).

Saturday

Bengals at Texans (Texans favored by 4.5)

I started to buy all the hype that Houston was done because of the team's late-season miniature collapse, but Grantland's Bill Barnwell assures me that it's okay to look at Houston's entire body of work rather than its last few weeks. The key to this game, to me, is that Cincinnati is terrible at protecting their quarterback and J.J. Watt and the Texans are good at hammering the quarterback. That's good enough for me! In fact, after playing this game in Madden while controlling the Texans, I'm going to even add to Houston's score (I originally had 30-17).
Houston 37, Cincinnati 17

Minnesota at Green Bay (Packers favored by 8)

I love what Adrian Peterson has done this year, and I hope he has a big game that keeps it close for a while, but why would anyone with a brain ever bet on Christian Ponder in a road playoff game against Aaron Rodgers? They wouldn't.
Packers 27, Vikings 17

Sunday

Indianapolis at Baltimore (Ravens favored by 7)

People like to say these are the worst two teams in the playoffs, but after I dorkily devised a spreadsheet averaging out certain things, the Ravens fared better (thanks in part to their awesome special teams performance. I think Andrew Luck is the kind of quarterback that can make a team fare much better than it should, and he isn't necessarily in over his head playing his first playoff game, but the Ravens' not-as-scary defense will get to him enough to force some turnovers and that will be enough.
Baltimore 27, Indianapolis 13

Seattle at Washington (Seahawks favored by 3)

Everyone thinks that this is going to be the hardest game of the weekend to figure out, and maybe I'm missing something, but I feel like all the things the Redskins do well on offense are the sorts of things Seattle's defense can stop. Throw in the fact that Washington has an average defense and has to play a Seahawks team that has excelled at both running AND passing lately and I don't think things bode well for Washington.

The Skins do seem to have the best home-field advantage this weekend, especially fortunate against a Seattle team that's unbeatable at home and just okay on the road, but I like Seattle here. If they fall behind early though, I'll be kicking myself for minimizing their home/road splits. And just for that, I'm going to have to pick this as a one-score game because I've picked exactly zero in the rest of these.
Seattle 34, Washington 30