Super Bowl XLV Pick

Record For playoffs (6-4)

Record Against the Spread (6-4)

Packers vs. Steelers, 6:30 p.m. (Packers favoured by 3)

I keep hearing how this is going to be a great game, and how the teams are evenly matched. I don't think they are. I think the Packers are much better.

But I do believe that this being the first Super Bowl for most of the Pack's players is going to hurt them at the beginning. I could see them being a bit flat and making some mistakes early.

Every time I've seen the Steelers this year, though, I haven't been impressed. They win, and that's like important and stuff, but winning games and winning Super Bowls are different things entirely. They'll definitely stay in the game - this is a tough team to blow out - but remember that they were outscored 19-0 in the last 30+ minutes of the AFC Title game win over the Jets.

The key to the game is Aaron Rodgers, who's clearly elevated himself into the Top 2 or 3 quarterbacks in the NFL conversation. Watching him play is a thing of beauty, and it's not just the skills. You can tell it's the preparation. He never ever ever looks confused, and he never ever ever looks like he's panicking when the play breaks down. Giving him two weeks of preparation - despite the Super Bowl hype-ochondria - is just too much for me to bet against him. Quarterbacks are like girls. The great ones should have rings, and if they don't, they're probably not as great as you thought.

Of course, Ben Roethlisberger has two of those rings already, and he's pretty great even when he's harried. He wins despite a poor - and injury-burdened - pass blocking offensive line. I believe not having their starting center will hurt the Steelers in doing what they really want to do, which is run the ball well. It's not that Big Ben can't win this game, I just don't think he will. I think that these are two good defenses, but there's going to be scoring. And most of it is going to be from passing.

I like the Packers a lot in this game, and I think they'll pull away with a late touchdown. Today, Vince Lombardi would be proud to hear me say that I believe in God, I believe in my family, and on Super Bowl Sunday, I believe in the Green Bay Packers.

Packers 31, Steelers 20

Maximizing The Minimalist

This photo is unrelated to the post, but I used Martha Stewart's recipe to make what came out to be the greatest Mac and Cheese in the history of the world.

Sadly, Mark Bittman - the man responsible for like half of my theories on food and cooking and kitchens - is stopping his famous column, The Minimalist, so he can focus on more important food-related issues. Apparently, there's a farming crisis in this country or something. I mean, I'm from the Garden State, which is totally known for still having all those farms and gardens up and down the New Jersey Turnpike, so I have no clue what Bittman's talking about.

But seriously, to honour Bittman, I'm posting below two great links. One is his 25 personal favourite columns, and the other is a link to every Minimalist article that's ever been written.


BITTMAN'S PERSONAL 25 FAVES

EVERY MINIMALIST COLUMN IN THE HISTORY OF THE ENTIRE WORLD


What makes Bittman so great is he knows when to care about frills and when not to. All you people who bitch about small kitchens, or not having that fancy Kitchen-Aid mixer, or the fact that it's too time consuming to make stock for soup, (just make a bunch of it and FREEZE it you idiot) he lets you know that you should just shut your little bitchy mouth and start cooking. I appreciate that. My kitchen's so small that my refrigerator doesn't even fit in it, and all my utensils are hanging up on my wall to save space. Does that stop me? No. And you know what, I owe a lot of it to Bittman, and his time-saving, space-saving ways. And don't forget his book How to Cook Everything, which my sister Melissa bought me for Christmas five years back and which I consult religiously ALL THE TIME. The iPhone App for the book is even better. Try it out. It's worth the whatever the hell it costs. I'd die for Mark Bittman. Possibly.

Playoff Picks, Conference Title Sunday, 2011

I hope you've all been gambling based on my amazing picks so far this playoff season.

Record last week: 3-1

Record last week (against the spread): 3-1

Record for the playoffs: 5-3

Record for the playoffs (against the spread): 5-3

Packers at Bears, 3 p.m. (Packers favoured by 3.5)

It's not insignificant that the Bears are home. I really think that if they get some early momentum they can win this game. So really, it just becomes a referendum on whether you think Chicago can get going early, and just how far ahead they can get.

I'm taking the other side of that bet. I mean have you SEEN how Aaron Rodgers has been playing quarterback? Sure, this game has "Be aware of the team that looked a little too good last week" undertones, but I don't know. Let me ask again: Have you SEEN how Aaron Rodgers has been playing quarterback?

I'd like to see the stat about how teams that DIDN'T PUNT ONCE in a game fared the next week. I reckon they scored a few more than 10 points in that next game - the number the Pack scored in its Week 17 playoff clinchitator (new word) over the Bears.

The Packers, who by the way are playing pretty good defense too, seem impervious to any kind of adversity right now. Against Atlanta, any time the Falcons needed a stop, Rodgers ALWAYS beat them. Every frickin time. It wouldn'tve exactly been a disaster if they had to punt once or - gulp - twice, but everything was so precision that they never ever ever stopped.

I like Jay Cutler, and I think he's still trudging toward elite status, and obviously he's one game away from accelerating that process. But Jay Cutler, you my friend are no Aaron Rodgers.

Packers 34, Bears 20


Jets at Steelers, 6:30 p.m. (Steelers favoured by 4)

I think this game comes down to one very big thing. A 6-foot-5, 280+ pound thing to be exact. And whether the Jets can knock it over before it releases a football from its hand.

If the rejuvenated Jets' pass rush gets four or more sacks in this game, they will win. The problem, of course, is that sacking Ben Roethlisberger is a difficult thing to do sometimes. It's not that you can't hit him, it's that you can't TACKLE him. He's huge, he waits, he waits, he moves, she bangs, she bangs, then he finds someone open, because I don't know if you know this, but most NFL receivers can get open if you give them 21.6 seconds to run around.

When the Jets DON'T sack Big Ben, they have to obviously limit the big plays. They're going to put Darrelle Revis on Mike Wallace (who's very fast), but don't be suprised if Wallace gets one long touchdown.

On offense, the Jets would be well advised to throw on first down at least half the time, because it's very hard to run on the Steelers, and it's not advantageous to be in third and longs against a team among the league leaders in sacks (regardless of the Jets' propensity to protect Mark Sanchez exceptionally well). If somehow one of these teams generates a running game, I'll be surprised and that team automatically puts itself in much better standing. I don't see that happening. I mean, maybe a bit of running, but don't expect either team to eclipse, say, 117 yards rushing. If one does and the other doesn't, that's PROBABLY your winner.

Sanchez isn't as good as Roethlisberger, of course, but he's ready for this. He's going to have to throw for 250 or more yards and limit himself to one turnover, but I think he can do it. Everyone's treating this as a game where the Jets are these huge underdogs, but they're just as good as the Steelers.

One warning: The Jets better hope this doesn't come down to kickers. Oh, wait, the Steelers' kicker is Shaun Suisham. I'd actually take Nick Folk over him, but they shouldn't tempt fate.

Jets 20, Steelers 16

Playoff Picks, 2011 Divisional Round

How fun was THAT? Three great games last weekend, including a pretty remarkable upset by Seattle that makes you wonder just how parity stricken this NFL really is. It's an epidemic. A 7-9 team with one or two quality wins during the season isn't that much worse than an 11-5 defending Super Bowl champion. Believe it. The playoffs aren't necessarily about what you did during the regular season, they're about how you're playing NOW and how you match up with a specific team NOW.

Think about this: Last weekend, the four teams that lost (Including Indianapolis, which looked shaky in its victorious regular season finale over the Titans) all came into the Wild Card round on a bit of a low - the Saints were kind of playing for something in week 17 too and still lost - and all their opponents were coming off multiple wins in a row or at least emotional wins or wins in which they looked pretty good. There's something to be said for that, although I'm not sure how that applies to teams with byes (that rhymes!).

Record For Playoffs: 2-2
Record Against the Spread: 2-2

Ravens at Steelers, Saturday at 4:30 P.M. (Steelers favoured by 3)

I'm so mad that the spread is EXACTLY three, thus ensuring a tie (which counts as a loss at Gamblers Anonymous). So out of spite, I'm taking the Ravens.

The real reason I'm taking them has something to do with a gut feeling. Conventional wisdom says to go with Big Ben, he'll find a way, blah blah blah.

But I've seen the Steelers a few times this season, and I don't know, color me skeptical. The only reason they won their division was because someone on Baltimore forgot to consider that Troy Polamalu might blitz Joe Flacco from the blindside at an important juncture of the game. Let's just say my gut tells me that's not going to happen again.

I think Flacco is taking the next step today. It'll be close, it'll be decided by 3, and the Ravens will win. Actually, it'll be decided by 4.
Ravens 17, Steelers 13


Packers at Falcons, Saturday at 8 P.M. (Falcons favoured by 2.5)

All week, I've been all like "Ruh roh. Everyone likes the Packers. That makes me very nervous."

Luckily, I was listening with joy yesterday as Mike Francesa went against the grain and picked the No. 1 seeded, home team over the No. 6 seed that you'd think are the 1967 Green Bay Packers.

That's all I needed. The Packers are better, they're clutcher, they're hot, they've got a phenomenal quarterback, and they're going to the Super Bowl. You can't convince me otherwise. It'll probably be a touchdown game, because these things typically are, but I'm confident on this one.
Packers 27, Falcons 20

Seahawks at Bears, Sunday at 1 P.M. (Bears favoured by 10)

The 'Hawks are a cute little story, the 7-9 team that could do your mom or whatever, but I'm going to turn to Francesa for the wisdom here: If you didn't show up at the wedding, don't go to the funeral. In other words, if you didn't pick the Seahawks when nobody in the world thought they'd win, don't pick them the next week when people are starting to believe (a little).

Next week is here, and it's going to be a funeral. I didn't believe in the Bears early in the year (how could I, my own team knocked out like 14 of their quarterbacks on a Sunday night), but I think they're peaking now. That doesn't mean they're incredible, because they aren't. But they're better than Seattle, and they won't take them lightly. Seattle won in Chicago earlier this year.

It's tough to pick the Bears with this high of a spread, but I won't pick the Seahawks unless I convince myself they can win the game outright, and now it's almost 10:30 on Saturday morning and I still haven't been able to do that.
Bears 31, Seahawks 17


Jets at Patriots, Sunday at 4:30 P.M. (Pats favoured by 8.5)

Can the Jets shock the world? I mean, they've beaten the Pats this year, albeit earlier in the season. They're certainly NOT going to lose 45-3 again.

Buuuuut. Tom Brady hasn't thrown an interception since October. The Pats have looked unstoppable even when they're playing for nothing. Their defense has been able to very ably disguise its deficiencies.

Call it another gut feeling (I'll be right on either this one or the Ravens pick, but probably not both), but I think the Jets play their best game of the season tomorrow. I think they play well early, they run well, and they do everything they know they need to do. PLUS, Rex Ryan unveils some crazy defenses that minimize Brady's short passing game and voila, it's close at the end and the Jets somehow pull it out.
Jets 24, Pats 23

Playoff Picks, Wild Card Weekend, 2011

As always, I've blogged a lot these past 11 months. It's a baseball blog, and all I ever do is make these silly predictions on NFL games that I don't even actually bet on. But let me tell you something: I understand the NFL this year. I won the top prize in a season-long, highly competitive, four-pick-per-week pool by going 42-26. Against the spread. So get out your checkbook, text your bookie, and tell him you're ready to clean up this week. As Mike Francesa would say, it's Wild Card Weekend in the league where they play....for pay:

Saints at Seahawks, Saturday at 4:30 p.m. (Saints favoured by 11)

The amazing 7-9 Seahawks waltz into the playoffs as the greatest Cinderella story since. Since nothing. The Seahawks aren’t good. And the Saints are. And the Saints have already beaten them by more than two touchdowns. They're the defending champions for Jehovah's sake. There’s always the chance that I’m overlooking something, and that everyone’s overlooking something, but guess what? We’re not. This game won’t ever be close, I don't care who's starting at running back for New Orleans (I think it might be YOU, reader.) Nothing matters. The Seahawks’ screaming fans won’t be screaming midway through the second quarter. Well. Maybe they’ll be screaming for their mommy.
SAINTS 34, SEAHAWKS 7



Jets at Colts, Saturday at 8:20 p.m. (Colts favoured by 3)

Usually at least one road team wins on Wild Card Weekend, and actually, it’s often two. There’s no way the Colts are going to make for an 0-for-2 home team Saturday, right? Right? You might think it’s impossible for the Jets to beat Peyton Manning, especially considering how poor their pass rush has been and the fact that Rex Ryan doesn't usually outfox the greatest fox. Did you know that Peyton was only sacked 16 times this year (16!)? The only other quarterback sacked as few times as Peyton also has the last name Manning, and also led his team to a 10-6 record this year, and also threw more than 30 touchdowns, but alas. That guy’s home watching this game. And his name isn't Cooper. (hint: It's Elisha.)

Can the Jets beat the Colts? You betcha. And you know why? Not because they’re going to totally rattle Peyton Manning. That’s impossible. But because Mark Sanchez is coming along rather nicely. He got into a shootout with Jay Cutler in Chicago, and dabnabbit he almost pulled it out. The Jets protect him well (he was only hit 52 times this year, plus, the Colts have the second fewest sacks among all the playoff teams, amazing considering the fact that they have two supposedly dominant defensive ends). The Jets are probably going to need to run the ball a bit better than they have, but I think they will. I think they’ll keep Peyton off the field JUST enough, and when he comes onto the field to try and win the game or force overtime, he’ll find that all those injuries to his receivers have finally caught up to him. The Jets will make that last big play, something like they did against the Steelers, and Rex Ryan will fulfill Bill Belichick’s enduring quote from the Pats’ blowout of the Jets earlier this year: “I’m sure we haven’t heard the last from them.”

JETS 23, COLTS 20



Ravens at Chiefs, Sunday at 1 p.m. (Ravens favoured by 3)

I intentionally hadn’t watched the Chiefs at all until Week 17, when a win over the Raiders would’ve gotten them the No. 3 seed and a date with the Jets instead of a game against the Ravens. And you know what? The Chiefs, who should have been motivated enough to play well, did – in the words of Jeff Tweedy – nothing. Nothing. NOTHING. NOTHING. NOTHING. Nothing at all!

The Chiefs aren’t Misunderstood, as Tweedy might sing, they’re just not that good. Jose Maria Flacco and the Ravens have won playoff games on the road before, and they’re going to do it again. Again is 1 p.m. In Kansas City. Missouri.

Here’s the thing about this game: It’s not going to be bloody close you bloody fool. The Chiefs do not protect their quarterback well – 74 QB hits this year is the fourth worst among all the playoff teams – and the Ravens are going to hit him. I know, I know, the Ravens only sacked the QB 27 times this year, which is atrocious. But the Ravens are better, bigger, tougher, stronger, more experienced, and they’re not going to give up a touchdown in this warm-up for Elvis. Elvis being the Eagles vs. the Packers, AKA the only first-round game between two teams with really real Super Bowl hopes.

RAVENS 27, CHIEFS 3.



Packers at Eagles, Sunday at 4:30 p.m. (Eagles favoured by 2.5)

This is going to be a game about quarterbacks, and quarterback hits, and quarterback runs, and possible quarterback injuries. Eagles quarterbacks – and this stat is skewed because of how much Mike Vick runs and therefore gives the pass rushers a longer time to get to him – were hit 94 times this year and sacked 50. That is the most out of any team that qualified for the playoffs. Packers quarterbacks, led by A-Rod(gers) were hit 67 times and sacked 38. That’s like, middle of the road. But still. The Eagles can get after the QB – especially in big games with Trent Cole playing – and they’re going to do it in this game. In between all the quarterback hitting and running, let me tell you what’s going to happen:

The Eagles, who I felt in my heart four or five weeks ago had peaked, are going to give us one more offensive show. A healthier Vick is going to show that he’s benefited from having a week off, and he’s going to make some explosive plays.

The Packers, who weirdly only scored 10 points against a Bears team playing for nothing in Week 17, are going to start slow and fall behind.

BUT. They’re going to come back, and this is going to become a first-round classic. Like I said, this is the only game between two teams that could legitimately make it to the Super Bowl, and they’re going to play like it. At the end, it’s going to be the Eagles making one more play or the Packers making one less. This is the only game that – in my opinion – has absolutely zero chance of being a blowout. If I’m wrong, this is going to be a pretty crappy weekend of football.

EAGLES 30, PACKERS 27.