Guess What? The Giants are Going to Beat the Patriots Tonight
Nobody in the entire world is looking at this game the right way. They just do not understand. They just do not understand Tom Coughlin, and they do NOT understand the magnitude of this game tonight on the future of the New York Giants. They do NOT understand the amount of PRESSURE that the Patriots are under for this game. A 15-0 team, trying to go 16-0? Are you kidding me? Does anyone out there get the picture? The Pats are going to be TIGHT.

In the last two seasons, Coughlin led Giants teams into the playoffs that were injured, struggling and without any sort of momentum. This year, although the Giants and Eli Manning have been sloppy in the second half after a 6-2 start, they actually have a chance to say, "Hey, we went 5-3 in the second half of the season, won our last two games and went 11-5 for the season. We were 7-1 on the road, and we actually have a better record than our first-round opponent, and we're playing well. We're coming off ending the 15-game winning streak of the greatest NFL team since 1985." And Coughlin's an old-school coach. He thinks - and perhaps correctly - that the Giants have a fighting chance in the playoffs if its players believe in themselves. And if their comebacks at Chicago and at Washington earlier this year tell you ANYTHING, it's that this team's players DO BELIEVE IN THEMSELVES.

Coughlin might very well rest Brandon Jacobs (he should), and perhaps pull a few starters out early. But here's what's going to happen: The Giants are going to build a stunning halftime lead, something like 23-7, and yes, they are going to start sitting some players in the second half, but THEY ARE GOING TO HOLD ON. This HAS to happen. It's the only thing that would make any sense. The Giants, perhaps incorrectly, believe the gap has closed between themselves and the Green Bay Packers and the Dallas Cowboys, so they actually think that beating the Patriots is going to give them momentum into the playoffs, and that they're going to shock the world all the way to the Super Bowl.

They might be wrong. The momentum might not carry over the way they think. But they are going to beat the Patriots tonight. It's just so obvious. All the Giants have to do is protect Manning a little better than they have lately (for some reason, the offensive line has given up 18 sacks of Manning in the last seven games after allowing just eight through the first eight games), and Eli himself has to make some plays. Say what you want about Eli Manning, but he's better than A.J. Feeley of the Eagles, who almost beat the Patriots IN FOXBORO earlier this year. There's no question that the Giants can run the ball on the Patriots, no matter WHO the running back is. They're bigger and tougher than the Patriots, and that's going to show.

It all comes down to one thing: Will the Giants be able to create front-seven pressure on Tom Brady? I say yes. You could argue with me all you'd like, and you might be right. But when this game is over, and the Patriots are 15-1 and the Giants are 11-5, don't come crying to me.

Giants 30, Patriots 27

Liners, Sliders and Steroids

I can’t actually sit and not say ANYTHING about this steroid business, so Liners, Sliders and Scoops is back on the air.

Due to the fact that everyone has said something, there really isn’t much new to write. I’ve thought for a long time that it was weird that a declining Roger Clemens was able to win consecutive Cy Young awards throwing a combined 498 innings in 1997 and 1998, way past his prime. Other people have pointed this out.

The only two things right now that I can add to this whole Mitchell Report business are these:

There needs to be a meaningful reevaluation of players who played from, let’s say 1975 to 1995. We need to see if maybe some of the guys who weren’t Hall of Famers because their numbers weren’t good enough are actually Hall-worthy. Maybe they don’t look so bad – I’m talking the Keith Hernandez-, Don Mattingly-type guys – considering the fact that their immediate peers cheated. Nobody’s talking about that right now. I’ll think about it. These guys could be really positively impacted by the whole drug thing.

The fashionable thing to do – let’s call it the Andy Pettitte, Fernando Vina, Brian Roberts defense – seems to be to say, “I cheated a few times, then I stopped, because it was wrong.” PR-wise, this is totally the smartest way to go about it. Roger Clemens is still denying everything through his agent, and nobody believes him. Pettitte, Vina and Roberts learned a lot from Bill Clinton’s mistakes. I hate to say it, but I can’t say I totally believe Pettitte, Vina and Roberts, but they at least look like they’ve got SOME character. Of all the people whose first real link to steroids and human growth hormone came in the Mitchell report, let’s wait and see how many come out with the “Dude, I did it, but only a few times because I was hurt,” and how many totally deny everything. I can almost guarantee that the “Sorry for this, but I did it a few times,” will come out looking more honest to fans.

And that’s really all that matters, is the fans. Or more accurately, the records the fans love. Baseball will survive this. Home runs are already down, testing is already working, but some fans are disenchanted. This is NOT as bad as the 1919 scandal that had the White Sox fixing World Series games, or even as bad as the 1994 owner’s lockout that cancelled the last quarter of the season and the World Series. But it’s bad, because it’s a one-size-fits-all asterisk on all the game’s records since the 1980s – and don’t even think it doesn’t go back to the mid 1980s – and more than any other sport, baseball is a game of records. And we want them sacred, and we get flustered and angry when they’re not sacred. So once baseball can assure us that the numbers are all sacred again, the game will be okay.

There are some players who come out as winners here. Those include finesse pitching, 300-game winners like Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine. Maddux is going to go down as the best starting pitcher of his generation. Glavine’s even going to go down as better than Clemens. Who would’ve thought THAT two years ago?

And Mattingly, Hernandez, Dave Parker, all those types of players, maybe they’ll also be the big winners.

Parker’s 339 career homers don’t look so bad anymore, do they?

Yank This!
Okay, so here is the prediction of the century, coming right at you. Tonight is the night we are all going to find out about the Yankees. It's bright. It's night. It's the Subway Series. It's ESPN. The Yankees are pitching some kid they found sleeping on the No. 7 train Friday night. The Mets are pitching the guy who won National League Pitcher of the Month for April. So it comes down to this: If the Yankees win tonight, they will then either sweep or take two of three from the Red Sox, and the Yanks will go on to win a playoff spot by the end of the season. If the Yankees lose, it will all keep imploding. The Yanks won't win 86 games. They will be dead. This is the game. Tonight. You excited?

Dice-K Ruins Another Japanese Pitcher’s Life
Thursday night, Daisuke Matsuzaka of the Red Sox beat Tomo Ohka of the Blue Jays in what was just the fourth matchup between Japanese starting pitchers in Major League Baseball history. In defeating Ohka, Matsuzaka erased former Japanese-born MLB Pitcher Mac Suzuki’s one page – or one line – in the record book. You see, in all three of the previous Japanese pitching matchups in Major League history, Suzuki had been the losing pitcher: Once to Hideki Irabu, once to Hideo Nomo and another time to Mr. Ohka himself. Sorry, Mac. At least you can still say you’re the first Japanese player to play in the Majors without first playing in the Japanese leagues.

"I Wish I Could Get Some More in My Mouth Though"
-Mark Buehrle, after throwing a no-hitter Wednesday against the Texas Rangers and getting doused with beers (looked like Miller Lite) from his Chicago White Sox teammates while being interviewed.

What To Do With Really Good Relief Pitchers

I’ll tell you one thing I wouldn’t do with a really good reliever: I wouldn’t waste his arm bringing him in with a three-run lead in the ninth inning. I would rather bring him in the game in the seventh, with two on and two out, to protect a one-run lead. I have confidence that most decent Major League relief pitchers – nine times out of 10 – have the ability get three outs before giving up three runs. But maybe that’s just me.

And you know what’s really sad? Very few people even think about this anymore. Okay, so Billy Beane probably thinks about it, and Bill James probably does, and the guys and gals who write Baseball Prospectus, and the Kennesaw State economist J.C. Bradbury, author of the fascinating Baseball Economist book that I just finished, who also happens to be the founder of the Web site Sabernomics.com, he definitely does. But seriously, let’s just discuss this thing with minimal use of numbers for a second. Let’s just talk about this.

I’d bore you by bitching about how ridiculous the save statistic is. The idea that managers actually adhere to it is maddening. I mean, the rule says that if there are two outs in the eighth inning, and the tying run is ON DECK, it’s a save situation. And so managers bring in their closer. It’s like clockwork. And it IS maddening.

Think about it. Closers often tire by the end of the season. They pitch a lot of games – a lot of high-pressure games. They throw every fastball practically as hard as they can, because they can. But sometimes they have to go out the next day and do the same thing. Well how about NOT doing that. How about a manager comes along and throws it all out the window. Here is how I – not an expert by any means – would and would not use my best reliever. Let’s call it the…

5 Tenets of Good ‘Closer’ Management:

1. If I bring my closer into the game in the eighth inning for some reason (perhaps the fact that he’s my best reliever would be a good enough reason), and he gets out of the inning, and then my team scores like five runs in the next half inning, I would take the guy’s ass out of the game. Who the hell cares if he gets a save, besides rotisserie players and the guy's agent. But as a manager, I’d rather save THE PITCHER HIMSELF. I wonder how many times throughout the year a good closer is wasted in a situation like this (I’m sure the numbers are out there, somewhere). It’s ridiculous.
2. Never, EVER, EVER, in the first three quarters of the season, would I allow my ace reliever to pitch three days in a row. NEVER. Now at the end of the season, I would perhaps make some exceptions because of pennant races and whatnot, but the exception would be very rare. That guy’s arm has to be crisp. HAS to be. That’s his value. He comes in and blows people away, right? Well, then, I’m going to save his arm. And hopefully, I'm going to protect him from injury.
   
3. I said it before: If my team has a three-run lead going into the ninth inning, I would NOT bring in my best reliever. I would bring in my second-best available reliever. Basically, and I don’t have the numbers in front of me, THREE-RUN INNINGS ARE RARE enough that I will take my chances with a three-run lead and an above-average relief pitcher who is not my top guy. Say I have 13 games (this is probably a high number) during the year where I go into the ninth inning with a three-run lead and bring in my second-best or third-best reliever. Even if two of those games are blown, I have my ace reliever rest up for…
4. …crazy jams in the eighth or (gulp!) even the SEVENTH innings. The key batters in the opposing lineup might actually come up in the seventh or eighth. They don’t wait for the closer to come in. The bases can load in innings other than the ninth! It’s all about flexibility, managers. If the ace reliever is able to get out of the seventh or eighth with the lead, you can figure out what to do the rest of the way. But the important thing is you still have the lead. Use your bullpen backward sometimes. Save your best setup man for the eighth or ninth. If your closer gets out of the seventh or eighth getting the other team’s best hitters out, maybe your setup man doesn’t have to face those guys again. Isn’t this easy?
5. Okay, you’re tied or down by one going into the ninth inning, and you’re home. Bring in Mariano, Nathan, or whomever you’ve got. The key is to stay tied or stay down one, so the hitters can come up and tie or win you the game. How many times have you seen a manager go to someone other than his best in the top of the ninth, and the guy gives up like three runs to make a one-run deficit a four-run deficit, and then the manager’s team comes back to score three in the bottom of the ninth? A tie game could become a one-run loss. That’s NOT good.

Really, the moral is simple. Managers should use their best relief pitcher for situations that call for good pitching, not situations that call for a "save." Sometimes - say a one-run lead going into the ninth inning - a "save" is actually a save. But sometimes, you can save the game earlier than the ninth inning. Why do managers deprive themselves of that opportunity?

It's MADDENING.

Scoops Sez This Is What'll Happen in '07

Okay, so I've identified four teams in baseball who I think have legitimate shots of winning their divisions, despite no recent division titles. They are the Cleveland Indians (AL Central), Texas Rangers (AL West), Milwaukee Brewers (NL Central) and Arizona Diamondbacks (NL West). But there is no way that all of them are going to win, so I'll make some more moderate predictions for the 2007 season now:

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Rangers
AL Wild Card: Red Sox

NL East: Mets
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Giants
NL Wild Card: Brewers

I'm not making playoff or award predictions, at least not yet. Enjoy the start of the season, everyone.

How I Changed Rotisserie Baseball

Before the 2006 NFL season, the greatest living sportswriter, Bill Simmons of ESPN.com, wrote a column about what was wrong with fantasy football, and how to change it. I loved nearly all of his ideas, and when it came time to draw up the rules for my football league, I used most of his. The league turned out to be great.

The biggest innovation Simmons introduced was having the fantasy league playoffs coincide with the real-life playoffs. All teams that make the fantasy playoffs, he suggested, should get to protect a certain number of their players that make the real-life playoffs, and then get the chance to pick players in a 5-round redraft from the teams that did not make the (fantasy) playoffs. To be fair, the team with the best regular season should get the first pick in all five rounds of the redraft.

During the playoffs, the scoring was cumulative, and as you can imagine, Air Bud Golden Receiver, a Jimmy Schneider-owned team that gambled in the redraft by selecting a few extra Indianapolis Colts (plus, he had Peyton Manning as his QB already), won. He was 16-1 during the regular season, so he was clearly our best owner in both the regular and postseason. The added strategy of figuring out who to protect from our existing rosters, and deciding which of the real-life playoff teams would advance the furthest, made it the best fantasy football league we’ve ever been in. Not to mention, when we drafted before the season, we had to at least keep in the backs of our mind what the playoff chances of the guys we were drafting were (Hence, a guy from the Texans whose numbers might be comparable with a guy from the Patriots would be worth a tad less in our league because the Texans were unlikely to make the playoffs, etc.).

With that innovation in mind, I refer you to the 2007 Major League Baseball season, which starts eight days from now.

I have combined my satisfaction and dissatisfaction with the existing system, as well as compiled complaints from friends, to create what I think should be the new model for keep-everyone-happy fantasy baseball. Here’s how it works:

First, the league is a hybrid. The regular season is rotisserie, with each owners ranked in six (not five) hitting and six pitching categories. The postseason is head-to-head.

The top six teams at the end of the regular season make the playoffs, which, as in Simmons’s fantasy football model, coincide with the real-life MLB playoffs. But here’s where I had to be super-duper creative:

Instead of cumulative points, the playoffs are head-to-head, and I’m going to have to keep the stats via Microsoft Excel because no stat service in its right mind is as neurotic as I am.

Here’s how I set up the playoffs: The top two teams from the regular season get byes during the American League Division Series and National League Division Series, while the No. 3 team plays the No. 6 team and the No. 4 team plays the No. 5 team in head-to-head matchups. Obviously, any players those teams have on their rosters that are playing in the real-life playoffs can accumulate points for them (there will obviously be empty slots on the rosters). The fantasy teams compete against one another in each of the 12 categories, and whomever wins more categories wins their Division Series matchup, and goes on to the League Championship Series round. The lower-seeded winner from the Division Series games plays the regular season champion, and the higher seed plays the regular season runner-up.

Here’s where we have the redraft. With only four real-life teams left, none of the remaining fantasy teams are going to have full rosters. Of course, they are going to be allowed to keep all the players they have that are playing in the League Championship Series. But they are going to need more players. These four fantasy teams remaining will each get to select 5 players (3 hitters, 2 pitchers) from the other six teams in the league. Of course, those players will all be players from the four remaining real-life teams. The regular season champ will get the first pick of each round of the redraft, to reward him/her for his/her work.
Then, those four teams will battle it out – just like the real-life teams will battle it out – and the winners will play in the World Series. By then, who knows how many players each team will have left?

The redraft will obviously be highly strategic: Each team is going to have its feelings on who will make the World Series, so will want to select players it thinks will advance past the League Championship Series. There’s no bench during the playoffs, so who you have left is who you get. No roster moves. If you’re stuck with a guy who winds up giving up 20 runs during the playoffs, oh well, you’re stuck with him. So do you want him on your team at the start of the playoffs if you think there’s a shot of him giving up 55 home runs? See what I mean?

Of course, this is a highly unusual experiment. I’m not aware of anyone having tried this before. But it answers the complaints I hear from my friends who hate head-to-head (the obvious drawback of head-to-head is that if you lose each category by one point, you lose 10-0) or those who hate roto-style (if you’re out of it by July, you’re out of it by July, and have no reason to really check your rosters anymore).

Having six playoff teams ensures that most teams will have a shot for most of the year. The last-place team will probably be reasonably close to the sixth-and-final playoff spot.

I’ve also imposed a roster-move limit of 50 moves. That does a few things: First of all, it will stop teams from making a ton of roster moves the last week of the season to get all undrafted playoff players onto its roster. Second of all, it makes the draft that much more important. Third, there are a lot of people who work and can only check their computers like a few times a day, and this will help them.

I’ve also tried to take out some luck from the equation by using a sixth category for both pitching and offense. The six categories for hitting are the usual five (AVG, R, HR, RBI, SB), plus one more very important statistic (on base percentage plus slugging percentage, or OPS). Having OPS means that players who walk and hit a lot of doubles and triples will actually get rewarded for those skills, which contribute to the most important thing they can do at work, which is generate runs.

The six pitching categories are again your usual five (W, ERA, K, WHIP and Saves), along with home runs allowed. Having home runs allowed in the mix is an important inclusion, because a lot of the other stats are just based on luck and happenstance. Relievers who give up runs that were already on base when they got in the game don’t get hurt in the ERA category. Closers who come into a game with a three-run lead and give up two runs before finally getting the last out actually get credited with a save. You know how it goes. But giving up a home run is something that usually happens because a pitcher makes a mistake, and a fantasy team should pay for that. In addition to the regular maximum innings pitched limit to prevent teams from drafting a zillion starters and winning the Wins and strikeouts category, I’ve imposed a 10-inning-per-week MINIMUM so guys can’t use all relievers in an effort to steal the home runs-allowed category. GENIUS!

Having the extra category on each side satisfies statheads like me who realize that a lot of baseball statistics are out of the actual players’ control, and won’t alienate traditional players who like to have categories like Wins, strikeouts, etc. Plus, why the hell aren’t we rewarding players for walks, doubles and triples more with that OPS stat? Oh wait, not WE, why aren’t YOU rewarding players for walks, doubles and triples more?

So there it is: A new way to play rotisserie baseball. I can’t imagine that every single person in the world will be happy, but I find it highly unlikely that this league will be anything but the biggest success in the history of sports.

And THAT’S an understatement.

Super Bowl Prediction

Think Peyton Manning came this far only to lose the Super Bowl? Think again. The Bears are the football equivalent of the 2004 St. Louis Cardinals. The Red Sox were not about to lose the World Series after coming back from down 3-0 to beat the Yankees. Same thing here. The Bears are the last cone in Peyton Manning's 2006-07 obstacle course. And you heard it here: He's clearing it. Ind 31, Chi 17

Here's What Will Happen in Today's Conference Title Games

I’ve done a pretty good job picking the 2006-2007 NFL Playoffs (see results below), so let’s try to keep that streak alive, shall we?

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: New Orleans at Chicago (-3)

What a beautiful story the New Orleans Saints are. They “upset” the Falcons on Monday Night Football in their return to the Superdome, they win the NFC South, they get a first-round bye, they win a playoff game for the second time in team history. Everything’s just rosy. The ride isn’t going to end here, folks. I trust Rex Grossman in a conference title game like I trust my friend Frank Dimuzio in Las Vegas (where his employer inexplicably sent him for a month – last I heard, Frank’s still alive, but probably barely. Sorry for the aside, but you ALL have that crazy friend, right?)

Anyway, my thinking on this game is pretty simple: If the Bears needed overtime to beat the weakest of the 12 teams in the playoffs, the Seahawks (yes, I think the Eagles and Giants and even the team Seattle beat, Dallas, were much better than Seattle coming into the playoffs), how the hell are the Bears going to beat the Saints? Plus, the Saints have a reasonably above-average pass rush, and you know what Grossman does when there’s a pass rush. The bottom line is, the Bears are going to want to control this game with their running backs, and it’s not going to work because the Saints' offense is going to grab an early lead. That will force Grossman to throw, and while the guy definitely has a great arm, to call him erratic is an understatement. He will make some plays, and this game will probably not be a blowout, but look for Rex to vex the Bears with a late mistake that either ruins the game or puts it away for New Orleans. N.O. 27, CHI 20

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: New England at Indianapolis (-3)

Since late in the regular season, I’ve thought that being under the radar and forgotten by everyone would propel the Colts to their first Manning-era Super Bowl berth, and I’m not about to back away from that feeling right now. I have two, solid reasons as to why the Colts are going to beat the Patriots in this game:

1. I looked back at all of Peyton Manning’s game logs since 2000. That’s seven seasons of game logs, including playoffs. NOT ONCE has he had three bad games in a row. If he has a bad game in this game, it would make for three bad games in a row. Even though he looked good in the 23-8 win over the Chiefs in the Wild Card round, and two of his three interceptions in that game happened because receivers ran wrong routes, that game has to be characterized as a bad game. So does last week’s game, the 15-6 win over the Ravens, at least by Peyton’s standards. I do not believe for one second that Peyton Manning is going to pick this playoff season to have his first three-game streak of bad performances since Bill Clinton was president. And if he plays a good game, I don’t see any way the Colts can lose.
2. Everybody’s talking about the Colts defense this, and the Colts defense is good at home that, etc. I do agree that this defense is playing much better now, with the return of Bob Sanders to the secondary, etc. (They are 5-1 this season with Sanders in the lineup). But I really think the defense is playing better because it’s fresher. Peyton and the offense have been playing keep-away, not from the opponent’s offense, but from their own defense. They’ve opted to run the ball, and take less chances, because they want to keep their own defense off the field. And because the ball-control is resulting in Adam Vinatieri field goals, the Colts are grabbing leads. It always takes pressure off the defense when it A) Is fresh and B) Is playing with a lead. Back home in the RCA Dome, I don’t see any reason that’s going to change.

There are no curses. In past playoff experiences, the Colts have run into a Patriots team that was more talented, more balanced and had a lot more experience. Now, the Colts have a lot more experience dealing with defeat, and they’ve learned how to win in different ways (23-8 instead of 41-38). That means something here. Expect Manning to go something like 23-28, for 277 yards and 2 touchdowns. I’ll eat my hat if he throws more than one interception. In fact, I’m pretty confident he’ll throw zero picks. The New York Times's fifth down blog has a pretty good debate about Tom Brady and Peyton, and if you read COMMENT 26 HERE, some believe Brady has made a deal with the devil that not Peyton nor any QB will ever be able to overcome. Bologna. It’s time Peyton. It’s definitely time. Ind 30, NE 20

The only thing that makes me feel uneasy about these predictions is that whenever the entire world wants there to be a certain Super Bowl matchup, it always seems to work out that at least one – but usually both – of the teams everybody is rooting for wind up losing. In this case, my predictions jibe with the Super Bowl matchup everyone wants, Indianapolis vs. New Orleans.

Last week’s record against the spread (3-1)
Last week’s record overall (3-1)
Postseason record against the spread (5-2)*
Postseason record overall (5-2)*

*did not pick the Eagles/Giants Wild Card game due to obvious biases.

NFC/AFC Semifinals Picks, Right Here

Nobody ever calls them the Semifinals, they call them the “Divisional Playoffs.” But what’s so divisional about it? We’re dividing the 8 teams that are left into 4, but the winners aren’t NECESSARILY division champions or anything, although all the teams playing this weekend happen to be division 2006 division champions. Let’s just call them the NFC and AFC Semifinals:

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-4)
Everybody in the world thinks that Peyton Manning and the Colts are going to crumble on the road against the great Ravens defense. But I think Tony Dungy says it best: “We never feel we can go anyplace and not move the ball.” That’s the thing, Tony. You’re so right. Your guys are not going to be shut out. All this brings me to the real key to this game, the Ravens offense. That offense is fool’s gold. It’s not that good. I don’t care what you think, it’s not that good. Baltimore had the second-easiest schedule in the AFC, and it’s going to show today. Don’t be surprised. Don’t be frickin’ surprised. Ind 27, Bal 14

Philadelphia at New Orleans (-5.5)
This is the only game that I do not feel confident about. I just feel like the Saints laid some inexplicable eggs this year in games they should have coasted in. I don’t like that attribute. No matter how good a story this team is - and it’s a GREAT story – playing down to your competition is not something that good playoff teams do. The Eagles definitely feel like they’ve already accomplished a lot this year, while the Saints think they have three more games to win. The tightness, the playoff history, the everything, all of it shows up today. The Saints are going to be shocked. Phi 23, N.O. 20

Seattle at Chicago (-9)
This is the easiest game to predict, I think. It will not be very close. I don’t care if Rex Grossman is the quarterback for the Bears, their defense is going to smash the hell out of Seattle. Chi 28, Sea 6

New England at San Diego (-4.5)
Obviously, this game is going to be close. It’s going to probably come down to the fourth quarter. Because the best player on either team is a running back, and not a quarterback, and because San Diego’s quarterback is so inexperienced, I think I have to go with Tom Brady. NE 31, SD 24

Last week’s record against the spread: 2-1 (didn’t pick NYG/PHI game).
Last week's record overall: 2-1

I Got Your Fancy Playoff Predictions RIGHT HERE!
In the words of WFAN's Mike Francesa, it's Wild Card Weekend in the league...where they play......... for pay. (cue old School NFL films music). I am POSITIVELY ABSOLUTELY sure about Saturday's games, and not so sure on Sunday's games. Well, as far as the Giants game on Sunday, I kind of have a feeling, but we'll get to that in a second.

Kansas City at Indianapolis (-7)
If Larry Johnson rushes for 500 yards against the Colts' defense, Peyton Manning will throw for 501 against the Chiefs' terrible pass defense. The Colts are not losing this game. Ind 38, KC 21

Dallas at Seattle (-2)
There is usually at least one road winner in the first round of the playoffs, and Dallas will be it. (Last Wild Card weekend, THREE road teams out of four won). Dallas has been playing like garbage, but they're more talented than the Seahawks, who have one too many injuries to their secondary to win this game. Dal 27, Sea 24

NY Jets at New England (-9.5)
It's true that the Jets aren't scared of the Patriots, and hey, they've even won a game at Foxborough this year. While I give the Jets a legit shot at the upset, I've got to pick New England at home. It would be stupid not to. NE 23, NYJ 17

NY Giants at Philadelphia (-6.5)
As a fan of the Giants, I cannot possibly be objective about this game. My gut tells me 37-13 Philadelphia, but I'm going to defer to my cousin, Matthew Atwan, for what I think is an astute contrarian opinion about this game. He's also a Giant fan, but this is probably the most optimistic way a fan of the Big Blue Wreck Themselves Crew can think about this game. Atwan's take?

The Giants are going to win this weekend. I have supreme confidence. Anytime a team gets hot, or a player gets hot the media is way too quick to announce the second coming of Christ. Jeff Garcia is not Johnny Unitas. The Eagles defense is not that of the '85 Bears. This is the same team that had trouble against the run most of the year. So what if they stop Tiki? Who's to say they even will? If they put 27 men up front and "dare" Eli to beat them they're going to win the game. All of a sudden he is the worst quarterback in professional sports. He may get so scared that he can manage nothing else but to fall to the ground, curl up in the fetal position and cry. He is a starting QB in the NFL in his third year.

While I agree that there have been some signs of regression, or at least lack of progress, that doesn't mean he's terrible. And what if they can't stop Tiki, not that he'll have the kind of game like he did against a banged up Redskin defense, but [the Eagles] held him in check twice this year. Third time is going to be tough. I have not heard or read a single person, with very little exception, even hint that the Giants have a shot in this game and I'm sick of it. I know that the Giants are lacking because of injuries, especially on defense, but I'm still not convinced that they will just roll over.