"I Wish I Could Get Some More in My Mouth Though"
-Mark Buehrle, after throwing a no-hitter Wednesday against the Texas Rangers and getting doused with beers (looked like Miller Lite) from his Chicago White Sox teammates while being interviewed.

What To Do With Really Good Relief Pitchers

I’ll tell you one thing I wouldn’t do with a really good reliever: I wouldn’t waste his arm bringing him in with a three-run lead in the ninth inning. I would rather bring him in the game in the seventh, with two on and two out, to protect a one-run lead. I have confidence that most decent Major League relief pitchers – nine times out of 10 – have the ability get three outs before giving up three runs. But maybe that’s just me.

And you know what’s really sad? Very few people even think about this anymore. Okay, so Billy Beane probably thinks about it, and Bill James probably does, and the guys and gals who write Baseball Prospectus, and the Kennesaw State economist J.C. Bradbury, author of the fascinating Baseball Economist book that I just finished, who also happens to be the founder of the Web site Sabernomics.com, he definitely does. But seriously, let’s just discuss this thing with minimal use of numbers for a second. Let’s just talk about this.

I’d bore you by bitching about how ridiculous the save statistic is. The idea that managers actually adhere to it is maddening. I mean, the rule says that if there are two outs in the eighth inning, and the tying run is ON DECK, it’s a save situation. And so managers bring in their closer. It’s like clockwork. And it IS maddening.

Think about it. Closers often tire by the end of the season. They pitch a lot of games – a lot of high-pressure games. They throw every fastball practically as hard as they can, because they can. But sometimes they have to go out the next day and do the same thing. Well how about NOT doing that. How about a manager comes along and throws it all out the window. Here is how I – not an expert by any means – would and would not use my best reliever. Let’s call it the…

5 Tenets of Good ‘Closer’ Management:

1. If I bring my closer into the game in the eighth inning for some reason (perhaps the fact that he’s my best reliever would be a good enough reason), and he gets out of the inning, and then my team scores like five runs in the next half inning, I would take the guy’s ass out of the game. Who the hell cares if he gets a save, besides rotisserie players and the guy's agent. But as a manager, I’d rather save THE PITCHER HIMSELF. I wonder how many times throughout the year a good closer is wasted in a situation like this (I’m sure the numbers are out there, somewhere). It’s ridiculous.
2. Never, EVER, EVER, in the first three quarters of the season, would I allow my ace reliever to pitch three days in a row. NEVER. Now at the end of the season, I would perhaps make some exceptions because of pennant races and whatnot, but the exception would be very rare. That guy’s arm has to be crisp. HAS to be. That’s his value. He comes in and blows people away, right? Well, then, I’m going to save his arm. And hopefully, I'm going to protect him from injury.
   
3. I said it before: If my team has a three-run lead going into the ninth inning, I would NOT bring in my best reliever. I would bring in my second-best available reliever. Basically, and I don’t have the numbers in front of me, THREE-RUN INNINGS ARE RARE enough that I will take my chances with a three-run lead and an above-average relief pitcher who is not my top guy. Say I have 13 games (this is probably a high number) during the year where I go into the ninth inning with a three-run lead and bring in my second-best or third-best reliever. Even if two of those games are blown, I have my ace reliever rest up for…
4. …crazy jams in the eighth or (gulp!) even the SEVENTH innings. The key batters in the opposing lineup might actually come up in the seventh or eighth. They don’t wait for the closer to come in. The bases can load in innings other than the ninth! It’s all about flexibility, managers. If the ace reliever is able to get out of the seventh or eighth with the lead, you can figure out what to do the rest of the way. But the important thing is you still have the lead. Use your bullpen backward sometimes. Save your best setup man for the eighth or ninth. If your closer gets out of the seventh or eighth getting the other team’s best hitters out, maybe your setup man doesn’t have to face those guys again. Isn’t this easy?
5. Okay, you’re tied or down by one going into the ninth inning, and you’re home. Bring in Mariano, Nathan, or whomever you’ve got. The key is to stay tied or stay down one, so the hitters can come up and tie or win you the game. How many times have you seen a manager go to someone other than his best in the top of the ninth, and the guy gives up like three runs to make a one-run deficit a four-run deficit, and then the manager’s team comes back to score three in the bottom of the ninth? A tie game could become a one-run loss. That’s NOT good.

Really, the moral is simple. Managers should use their best relief pitcher for situations that call for good pitching, not situations that call for a "save." Sometimes - say a one-run lead going into the ninth inning - a "save" is actually a save. But sometimes, you can save the game earlier than the ninth inning. Why do managers deprive themselves of that opportunity?

It's MADDENING.

Scoops Sez This Is What'll Happen in '07

Okay, so I've identified four teams in baseball who I think have legitimate shots of winning their divisions, despite no recent division titles. They are the Cleveland Indians (AL Central), Texas Rangers (AL West), Milwaukee Brewers (NL Central) and Arizona Diamondbacks (NL West). But there is no way that all of them are going to win, so I'll make some more moderate predictions for the 2007 season now:

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Rangers
AL Wild Card: Red Sox

NL East: Mets
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Giants
NL Wild Card: Brewers

I'm not making playoff or award predictions, at least not yet. Enjoy the start of the season, everyone.