Here's What Will Happen in Today's Conference Title Games

I’ve done a pretty good job picking the 2006-2007 NFL Playoffs (see results below), so let’s try to keep that streak alive, shall we?

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: New Orleans at Chicago (-3)

What a beautiful story the New Orleans Saints are. They “upset” the Falcons on Monday Night Football in their return to the Superdome, they win the NFC South, they get a first-round bye, they win a playoff game for the second time in team history. Everything’s just rosy. The ride isn’t going to end here, folks. I trust Rex Grossman in a conference title game like I trust my friend Frank Dimuzio in Las Vegas (where his employer inexplicably sent him for a month – last I heard, Frank’s still alive, but probably barely. Sorry for the aside, but you ALL have that crazy friend, right?)

Anyway, my thinking on this game is pretty simple: If the Bears needed overtime to beat the weakest of the 12 teams in the playoffs, the Seahawks (yes, I think the Eagles and Giants and even the team Seattle beat, Dallas, were much better than Seattle coming into the playoffs), how the hell are the Bears going to beat the Saints? Plus, the Saints have a reasonably above-average pass rush, and you know what Grossman does when there’s a pass rush. The bottom line is, the Bears are going to want to control this game with their running backs, and it’s not going to work because the Saints' offense is going to grab an early lead. That will force Grossman to throw, and while the guy definitely has a great arm, to call him erratic is an understatement. He will make some plays, and this game will probably not be a blowout, but look for Rex to vex the Bears with a late mistake that either ruins the game or puts it away for New Orleans. N.O. 27, CHI 20

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: New England at Indianapolis (-3)

Since late in the regular season, I’ve thought that being under the radar and forgotten by everyone would propel the Colts to their first Manning-era Super Bowl berth, and I’m not about to back away from that feeling right now. I have two, solid reasons as to why the Colts are going to beat the Patriots in this game:

1. I looked back at all of Peyton Manning’s game logs since 2000. That’s seven seasons of game logs, including playoffs. NOT ONCE has he had three bad games in a row. If he has a bad game in this game, it would make for three bad games in a row. Even though he looked good in the 23-8 win over the Chiefs in the Wild Card round, and two of his three interceptions in that game happened because receivers ran wrong routes, that game has to be characterized as a bad game. So does last week’s game, the 15-6 win over the Ravens, at least by Peyton’s standards. I do not believe for one second that Peyton Manning is going to pick this playoff season to have his first three-game streak of bad performances since Bill Clinton was president. And if he plays a good game, I don’t see any way the Colts can lose.
2. Everybody’s talking about the Colts defense this, and the Colts defense is good at home that, etc. I do agree that this defense is playing much better now, with the return of Bob Sanders to the secondary, etc. (They are 5-1 this season with Sanders in the lineup). But I really think the defense is playing better because it’s fresher. Peyton and the offense have been playing keep-away, not from the opponent’s offense, but from their own defense. They’ve opted to run the ball, and take less chances, because they want to keep their own defense off the field. And because the ball-control is resulting in Adam Vinatieri field goals, the Colts are grabbing leads. It always takes pressure off the defense when it A) Is fresh and B) Is playing with a lead. Back home in the RCA Dome, I don’t see any reason that’s going to change.

There are no curses. In past playoff experiences, the Colts have run into a Patriots team that was more talented, more balanced and had a lot more experience. Now, the Colts have a lot more experience dealing with defeat, and they’ve learned how to win in different ways (23-8 instead of 41-38). That means something here. Expect Manning to go something like 23-28, for 277 yards and 2 touchdowns. I’ll eat my hat if he throws more than one interception. In fact, I’m pretty confident he’ll throw zero picks. The New York Times's fifth down blog has a pretty good debate about Tom Brady and Peyton, and if you read COMMENT 26 HERE, some believe Brady has made a deal with the devil that not Peyton nor any QB will ever be able to overcome. Bologna. It’s time Peyton. It’s definitely time. Ind 30, NE 20

The only thing that makes me feel uneasy about these predictions is that whenever the entire world wants there to be a certain Super Bowl matchup, it always seems to work out that at least one – but usually both – of the teams everybody is rooting for wind up losing. In this case, my predictions jibe with the Super Bowl matchup everyone wants, Indianapolis vs. New Orleans.

Last week’s record against the spread (3-1)
Last week’s record overall (3-1)
Postseason record against the spread (5-2)*
Postseason record overall (5-2)*

*did not pick the Eagles/Giants Wild Card game due to obvious biases.

NFC/AFC Semifinals Picks, Right Here

Nobody ever calls them the Semifinals, they call them the “Divisional Playoffs.” But what’s so divisional about it? We’re dividing the 8 teams that are left into 4, but the winners aren’t NECESSARILY division champions or anything, although all the teams playing this weekend happen to be division 2006 division champions. Let’s just call them the NFC and AFC Semifinals:

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-4)
Everybody in the world thinks that Peyton Manning and the Colts are going to crumble on the road against the great Ravens defense. But I think Tony Dungy says it best: “We never feel we can go anyplace and not move the ball.” That’s the thing, Tony. You’re so right. Your guys are not going to be shut out. All this brings me to the real key to this game, the Ravens offense. That offense is fool’s gold. It’s not that good. I don’t care what you think, it’s not that good. Baltimore had the second-easiest schedule in the AFC, and it’s going to show today. Don’t be surprised. Don’t be frickin’ surprised. Ind 27, Bal 14

Philadelphia at New Orleans (-5.5)
This is the only game that I do not feel confident about. I just feel like the Saints laid some inexplicable eggs this year in games they should have coasted in. I don’t like that attribute. No matter how good a story this team is - and it’s a GREAT story – playing down to your competition is not something that good playoff teams do. The Eagles definitely feel like they’ve already accomplished a lot this year, while the Saints think they have three more games to win. The tightness, the playoff history, the everything, all of it shows up today. The Saints are going to be shocked. Phi 23, N.O. 20

Seattle at Chicago (-9)
This is the easiest game to predict, I think. It will not be very close. I don’t care if Rex Grossman is the quarterback for the Bears, their defense is going to smash the hell out of Seattle. Chi 28, Sea 6

New England at San Diego (-4.5)
Obviously, this game is going to be close. It’s going to probably come down to the fourth quarter. Because the best player on either team is a running back, and not a quarterback, and because San Diego’s quarterback is so inexperienced, I think I have to go with Tom Brady. NE 31, SD 24

Last week’s record against the spread: 2-1 (didn’t pick NYG/PHI game).
Last week's record overall: 2-1

I Got Your Fancy Playoff Predictions RIGHT HERE!
In the words of WFAN's Mike Francesa, it's Wild Card Weekend in the league...where they play......... for pay. (cue old School NFL films music). I am POSITIVELY ABSOLUTELY sure about Saturday's games, and not so sure on Sunday's games. Well, as far as the Giants game on Sunday, I kind of have a feeling, but we'll get to that in a second.

Kansas City at Indianapolis (-7)
If Larry Johnson rushes for 500 yards against the Colts' defense, Peyton Manning will throw for 501 against the Chiefs' terrible pass defense. The Colts are not losing this game. Ind 38, KC 21

Dallas at Seattle (-2)
There is usually at least one road winner in the first round of the playoffs, and Dallas will be it. (Last Wild Card weekend, THREE road teams out of four won). Dallas has been playing like garbage, but they're more talented than the Seahawks, who have one too many injuries to their secondary to win this game. Dal 27, Sea 24

NY Jets at New England (-9.5)
It's true that the Jets aren't scared of the Patriots, and hey, they've even won a game at Foxborough this year. While I give the Jets a legit shot at the upset, I've got to pick New England at home. It would be stupid not to. NE 23, NYJ 17

NY Giants at Philadelphia (-6.5)
As a fan of the Giants, I cannot possibly be objective about this game. My gut tells me 37-13 Philadelphia, but I'm going to defer to my cousin, Matthew Atwan, for what I think is an astute contrarian opinion about this game. He's also a Giant fan, but this is probably the most optimistic way a fan of the Big Blue Wreck Themselves Crew can think about this game. Atwan's take?

The Giants are going to win this weekend. I have supreme confidence. Anytime a team gets hot, or a player gets hot the media is way too quick to announce the second coming of Christ. Jeff Garcia is not Johnny Unitas. The Eagles defense is not that of the '85 Bears. This is the same team that had trouble against the run most of the year. So what if they stop Tiki? Who's to say they even will? If they put 27 men up front and "dare" Eli to beat them they're going to win the game. All of a sudden he is the worst quarterback in professional sports. He may get so scared that he can manage nothing else but to fall to the ground, curl up in the fetal position and cry. He is a starting QB in the NFL in his third year.

While I agree that there have been some signs of regression, or at least lack of progress, that doesn't mean he's terrible. And what if they can't stop Tiki, not that he'll have the kind of game like he did against a banged up Redskin defense, but [the Eagles] held him in check twice this year. Third time is going to be tough. I have not heard or read a single person, with very little exception, even hint that the Giants have a shot in this game and I'm sick of it. I know that the Giants are lacking because of injuries, especially on defense, but I'm still not convinced that they will just roll over.