NFL Strength of Schedule
To know the diff's in the conferences, check out strength of schedule. Every team except for the top two (SD and Balt) in the AFC have .500 plus strengths of schedule. The only team in the top 13 in the NFC that has a schedule strength of more than .500 is the Giants, who have the fourth toughest schedule in the entire NFL. The only other three teams in the NFC with plus .500 strengths of schedule are the bottom three (Skins, Tampa and Detroit, which makes you think, are those teams really bad, or did they just have really difficult schedules? It's funny isn't it, how the Chargers and Ravens are the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the AFC, and THE ONLY ONES with schedule strength of less than .500?)
Tuesday, December 26, 2006
Monday, December 25, 2006
The Giants Control Their Destiny!! (Well, Practically)
Still? you ask. Yep, that's right. The New York Giants, the once 6-2 but now 7-8 bumbly, fumbly, blustery, cold New York Football Giants, lose in every way on the football field, but win in every way on the NFC tiebreaker flow chart. Let me make this really simple for you. Let's say the Giants win at Washington on New Year's Eve Eve (Dec. 30). Let's just say that for a second, even though it totally sounds crazy that could ever possibly happen, since the Giants are are in the habit of losing every game (remember, though, that they do have a winning record on the road, and every single Giant loss has been to a team that currently has a winning record.). That win we're giving them over Washington puts them at 8-8, with a 7-5 conference record.
The Giants WILL ALMOST DEFINITELY have the tiebreaker over all other teams in the conference, because they have head-to-head wins over the Panthers and Falcons, a better conference record than everyone except Green Bay, and a higher "strength of victory" winning percentage than Green Bay (Green Bay, mind you, would have to win at Chicago to finish in a tie with the Giants).
Here's where the Giants COULD get screwed:
If the Giants and Packers are tied with one or more teams for the final Wild Card spot, all the other teams would be eliminated because of poor conference records, and it would come down to "record in common games" between the Giants and Packers. Well, somehow, it's tied again, at 1-4, because we're assuming the Packers have beaten the Bears (and the Giants have a win over the Eagles, who beat the Packers.) So, if the Giants and Packers are both 8-8, the final NFC Wild Card spot comes down to "strength of victory" between the two teams. I got out my calculator, and figured out the strength of victory possibilities.
If the Packers beat the Bears, their strength of victory gets boosted WAAAAAAAAAY up, because, hey, they've beaten a Bears team that's 13-3. Still, factoring that win in, the only way the Packers can overtake the Giants in strength of victory is if ALL 8 of the following things happen:
1. Detroit wins at Dallas
2. the Dolphins win at Indianapolis
3. the Cardinals win at San Diego
4. the Vikings win at St. Louis
5. the 49'ers win at Denver
6. Seattle beats Tampa Bay
7. Cleveland wins vs. Houston
8. New Orleans beats Carolina
In other words, if ONE of those things DOES NOT HAPPEN, the Giants are in the playoffs with a win over Washington. I really crunched these numbers hard. I'm not wrong.
Oh, and by the way, I'm sorry for ever writing anything about the NFC not being that bad, because it is. I'm writing about how the crappy Giants, at 7-8, control their own playoff destiny. That's the definition of a bad conference. My bad.
Still? you ask. Yep, that's right. The New York Giants, the once 6-2 but now 7-8 bumbly, fumbly, blustery, cold New York Football Giants, lose in every way on the football field, but win in every way on the NFC tiebreaker flow chart. Let me make this really simple for you. Let's say the Giants win at Washington on New Year's Eve Eve (Dec. 30). Let's just say that for a second, even though it totally sounds crazy that could ever possibly happen, since the Giants are are in the habit of losing every game (remember, though, that they do have a winning record on the road, and every single Giant loss has been to a team that currently has a winning record.). That win we're giving them over Washington puts them at 8-8, with a 7-5 conference record.
The Giants WILL ALMOST DEFINITELY have the tiebreaker over all other teams in the conference, because they have head-to-head wins over the Panthers and Falcons, a better conference record than everyone except Green Bay, and a higher "strength of victory" winning percentage than Green Bay (Green Bay, mind you, would have to win at Chicago to finish in a tie with the Giants).
Here's where the Giants COULD get screwed:
If the Giants and Packers are tied with one or more teams for the final Wild Card spot, all the other teams would be eliminated because of poor conference records, and it would come down to "record in common games" between the Giants and Packers. Well, somehow, it's tied again, at 1-4, because we're assuming the Packers have beaten the Bears (and the Giants have a win over the Eagles, who beat the Packers.) So, if the Giants and Packers are both 8-8, the final NFC Wild Card spot comes down to "strength of victory" between the two teams. I got out my calculator, and figured out the strength of victory possibilities.
If the Packers beat the Bears, their strength of victory gets boosted WAAAAAAAAAY up, because, hey, they've beaten a Bears team that's 13-3. Still, factoring that win in, the only way the Packers can overtake the Giants in strength of victory is if ALL 8 of the following things happen:
1. Detroit wins at Dallas
2. the Dolphins win at Indianapolis
3. the Cardinals win at San Diego
4. the Vikings win at St. Louis
5. the 49'ers win at Denver
6. Seattle beats Tampa Bay
7. Cleveland wins vs. Houston
8. New Orleans beats Carolina
In other words, if ONE of those things DOES NOT HAPPEN, the Giants are in the playoffs with a win over Washington. I really crunched these numbers hard. I'm not wrong.
Oh, and by the way, I'm sorry for ever writing anything about the NFC not being that bad, because it is. I'm writing about how the crappy Giants, at 7-8, control their own playoff destiny. That's the definition of a bad conference. My bad.
Friday, December 15, 2006
Liners, Sliders and Spirals???
Okay, I can’t take this anymore. I need to write something on this blog, and I’ve got to say at least something about football. Liners, Sliders and Scoops is now a member of the NFL Bloggers community, so I'm going to add a little bit of football stuff every now and then. You got a problem with that?
Plus, coming off my sterling prediction that the Cardinals would beat the Tigers in the World Series (that was my LAST post), I feel like I’m on some kind of hot streak (Didn’t I predict Oliver Perez’s postseason success, too?).
Seven NFL thoughts, just real fast, and just so you know, I am digesting some warm stove baseball and will weigh in on that stuff at some point:
1. The NFC is NOT as frickin’ weak as everyone says it is. The reason all these teams are jumbled up at 7-6 and 8-6 is because they’re so damn even. The Bears, Saints, Cowboys and Seahawks are all tough outs in the playoffs, albeit with holes. Plus, the Giants and perhaps the Eagles or Falcons all have the capability of a few upsets in the postseason, although the Eagles without Donovan McNabb, uh, not so much. The Vikings have an amazingly solid run defense that’s giving up like 50 yards a game or something, so if they sneak in, they might even be able to turn an upset or two. Okay, okay, I know, NONE of these teams scare the hell out of you, and actually the more I type this, the less I’m believing my own argument.
I guess my basic point is this: You can’t judge a conference champion by its conference. The team that comes out of the NFC will have just as good a chance of winning the Super Bowl as the team that wins the AFC. Seriously, if you win the two (or three) playoff games necessary to get into the Super Bowl, you're on a serious hot streak. You've beaten two of the six best teams in your conference, and you probably feel like you can beat anybody (um, Joe Namath?) Let’s not make the same mistake we made with the Cardinals in baseball, people. Well, I guess I didn’t make that mistake, but most of YOU did. Plus, according to Bill Simmons’s latest mailbag, underdogs are an astonishing 116-86-6 this year against the point spread, and they’ve actually WON THE GAME OUTRIGHT 85 times. Are you kidding me? Okay, this is a really long first “quick thought,” but hey, this is Liners, Sliders and Scoops’s first dive onto a football field, we need to drag this thing out.
2. While he’s been amazing and so have his Chargers, Philip Rivers is still a young quarterback, and still susceptible to all the things young quarterbacks whose names don’t rhyme with Schomm Schmady are susceptible to. Plus, let’s not forget that Marty Schottenheimer, the playoff choke artist himself, is Rivers’s coach. Of course, Marty’s biggest playoff problem is usually that he gets ultra conservative and runs the ball too much, and I’m trying to figure out how bad it is to run the ball too much when your running back has already scored 29 touchdowns in 13 games.
Still, Rivers has gone against these defenses, and I’ll put their NFL total defense rankings in parentheses: Oak (6), Ten (32), Bal (1), Pit (9), SF (22), KC (13), StL (23), Cle (30), Cin (26), Den (14), Oak (6), Buf (19), Den (14). While he has played well, please realize that he was a combined 22-for-42 with 1 TD and 1 INT in two games against the No. 6 Raiders, he put up just 13 points against No. 1 Baltimore (though he did play well and was composed in that game), and had a bad start to one of the Denver games.
Okay, again, I’m getting away from my point, which is not that Philip Rivers is crappy and that I want to dissect every one of his games to find the crappy passes. I’m just saying that he has feasted on poor defenses, hands off to a guy that is having maybe the best season for a running back in the history of the NFL and, most importantly, is still not immune to the poor games that young quarterbacks ALWAYS have early in their career. Still, you have to think the Chargers are probably going to the Super Bowl. Maybe it’s in the Super Bowl where Rivers will first show signs he’s a first-year starter. Who knows?
3. Eric Mangini is a genius in so many ways for making the Jets anything this year, although it’s going to be tough choosing between him and Sean Payton for Coach of the Year. I pick Payton, because that onside kick against Bill Parcells when his team already had a 135-21 lead was something people only do in Madden '07.
4. The Colts are getting to the point where people think they’re so overrated, and they have such little pressure on them because of that crap-the-bed run defense, that this could actually be the year where they get there. Just think about it for a second. Okay, probably not, but still, it’s a real possibility! By the way, they would be 1-12 without Peyton Manning.
5. Of all the quarterbacks drafted during the early rounds the past 10 years, Drew Brees is the one that scouts were MOST WRONG on. Nobody realized that he’d be good. No scout said he had enough arm strength. Every scout thought he only did well at Purdue because of their quick-hitting passes out of 19-wide receiver sets. They thought it was just the system. Ha ha scouts. You’re stupid.
6. The New York Giants can still get a first-round bye. They could totally finish 10-6 and still get a first-round bye. I swear to God. And this isn't some kind of Northern New Jersey, "We know a guy who can get us a week off in the playoffs" thing either. Here’s how (and don’t think I wasn’t up all night after Seattle's loss to San Francisco Thursday figuring this out):
The Giants beat the Eagles this weekend, then the Saints next weekend, both at Giants Stadium, and then they beat the Redskins in Washington on New Year’s Eve Eve. That gives the Giants a 10-6 record.
The Dallas Cowboys lose at least one of their remaining 3 games (at Atlanta, home to Philly, home to Detroit), giving them a record of either 10-6 or 9-7. Because the Giants would have a better division record than Dallas, the Giants would thus be NFC East champions for the second straight year.
The Seahawks split their final two games (home to San Diego and at Tampa Bay), giving them a 9-7 record and the NFC West Division Title, and the No. 4 seed. The Seahawks beat the Giants in Week 3, so if they finish tied with the Giants, they would have the tiebreaker.
The Saints, in addition to losing to the Giants, split their other two remaining games (home games vs. Carolina and Washington). They finish 10-6, but because they lost to the Giants head-to-head in the Week 16 game that I've already given to the Giants for the purpose of this scenario, they get the No. 3 seed rather than the No. 2 seed.
7. Figuring out NFL playoff scenarios during Week 15 is lunacy, but fun too.
Okay, I can’t take this anymore. I need to write something on this blog, and I’ve got to say at least something about football. Liners, Sliders and Scoops is now a member of the NFL Bloggers community, so I'm going to add a little bit of football stuff every now and then. You got a problem with that?
Plus, coming off my sterling prediction that the Cardinals would beat the Tigers in the World Series (that was my LAST post), I feel like I’m on some kind of hot streak (Didn’t I predict Oliver Perez’s postseason success, too?).
Seven NFL thoughts, just real fast, and just so you know, I am digesting some warm stove baseball and will weigh in on that stuff at some point:
1. The NFC is NOT as frickin’ weak as everyone says it is. The reason all these teams are jumbled up at 7-6 and 8-6 is because they’re so damn even. The Bears, Saints, Cowboys and Seahawks are all tough outs in the playoffs, albeit with holes. Plus, the Giants and perhaps the Eagles or Falcons all have the capability of a few upsets in the postseason, although the Eagles without Donovan McNabb, uh, not so much. The Vikings have an amazingly solid run defense that’s giving up like 50 yards a game or something, so if they sneak in, they might even be able to turn an upset or two. Okay, okay, I know, NONE of these teams scare the hell out of you, and actually the more I type this, the less I’m believing my own argument.
I guess my basic point is this: You can’t judge a conference champion by its conference. The team that comes out of the NFC will have just as good a chance of winning the Super Bowl as the team that wins the AFC. Seriously, if you win the two (or three) playoff games necessary to get into the Super Bowl, you're on a serious hot streak. You've beaten two of the six best teams in your conference, and you probably feel like you can beat anybody (um, Joe Namath?) Let’s not make the same mistake we made with the Cardinals in baseball, people. Well, I guess I didn’t make that mistake, but most of YOU did. Plus, according to Bill Simmons’s latest mailbag, underdogs are an astonishing 116-86-6 this year against the point spread, and they’ve actually WON THE GAME OUTRIGHT 85 times. Are you kidding me? Okay, this is a really long first “quick thought,” but hey, this is Liners, Sliders and Scoops’s first dive onto a football field, we need to drag this thing out.
2. While he’s been amazing and so have his Chargers, Philip Rivers is still a young quarterback, and still susceptible to all the things young quarterbacks whose names don’t rhyme with Schomm Schmady are susceptible to. Plus, let’s not forget that Marty Schottenheimer, the playoff choke artist himself, is Rivers’s coach. Of course, Marty’s biggest playoff problem is usually that he gets ultra conservative and runs the ball too much, and I’m trying to figure out how bad it is to run the ball too much when your running back has already scored 29 touchdowns in 13 games.
Still, Rivers has gone against these defenses, and I’ll put their NFL total defense rankings in parentheses: Oak (6), Ten (32), Bal (1), Pit (9), SF (22), KC (13), StL (23), Cle (30), Cin (26), Den (14), Oak (6), Buf (19), Den (14). While he has played well, please realize that he was a combined 22-for-42 with 1 TD and 1 INT in two games against the No. 6 Raiders, he put up just 13 points against No. 1 Baltimore (though he did play well and was composed in that game), and had a bad start to one of the Denver games.
Okay, again, I’m getting away from my point, which is not that Philip Rivers is crappy and that I want to dissect every one of his games to find the crappy passes. I’m just saying that he has feasted on poor defenses, hands off to a guy that is having maybe the best season for a running back in the history of the NFL and, most importantly, is still not immune to the poor games that young quarterbacks ALWAYS have early in their career. Still, you have to think the Chargers are probably going to the Super Bowl. Maybe it’s in the Super Bowl where Rivers will first show signs he’s a first-year starter. Who knows?
3. Eric Mangini is a genius in so many ways for making the Jets anything this year, although it’s going to be tough choosing between him and Sean Payton for Coach of the Year. I pick Payton, because that onside kick against Bill Parcells when his team already had a 135-21 lead was something people only do in Madden '07.
4. The Colts are getting to the point where people think they’re so overrated, and they have such little pressure on them because of that crap-the-bed run defense, that this could actually be the year where they get there. Just think about it for a second. Okay, probably not, but still, it’s a real possibility! By the way, they would be 1-12 without Peyton Manning.
5. Of all the quarterbacks drafted during the early rounds the past 10 years, Drew Brees is the one that scouts were MOST WRONG on. Nobody realized that he’d be good. No scout said he had enough arm strength. Every scout thought he only did well at Purdue because of their quick-hitting passes out of 19-wide receiver sets. They thought it was just the system. Ha ha scouts. You’re stupid.
6. The New York Giants can still get a first-round bye. They could totally finish 10-6 and still get a first-round bye. I swear to God. And this isn't some kind of Northern New Jersey, "We know a guy who can get us a week off in the playoffs" thing either. Here’s how (and don’t think I wasn’t up all night after Seattle's loss to San Francisco Thursday figuring this out):
The Giants beat the Eagles this weekend, then the Saints next weekend, both at Giants Stadium, and then they beat the Redskins in Washington on New Year’s Eve Eve. That gives the Giants a 10-6 record.
The Dallas Cowboys lose at least one of their remaining 3 games (at Atlanta, home to Philly, home to Detroit), giving them a record of either 10-6 or 9-7. Because the Giants would have a better division record than Dallas, the Giants would thus be NFC East champions for the second straight year.
The Seahawks split their final two games (home to San Diego and at Tampa Bay), giving them a 9-7 record and the NFC West Division Title, and the No. 4 seed. The Seahawks beat the Giants in Week 3, so if they finish tied with the Giants, they would have the tiebreaker.
The Saints, in addition to losing to the Giants, split their other two remaining games (home games vs. Carolina and Washington). They finish 10-6, but because they lost to the Giants head-to-head in the Week 16 game that I've already given to the Giants for the purpose of this scenario, they get the No. 3 seed rather than the No. 2 seed.
7. Figuring out NFL playoff scenarios during Week 15 is lunacy, but fun too.